The National League Wild Card race is going down to the wire, and the Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, and Philadelphia Phillies still have almost everything to play for with the Arizona Diamondbacks on the outside looking in — needing a miracle.
Chicago and San Diego enter the final six games tied at 87-69, while Philadelphia sits one game behind at 86-70. The Cubs own the head-to-head tiebreaker over both teams, while the Phillies own the tiebreaker over San Diego after going a perfect 6-0 against the Padres this season.
That makes every game enormous. With three completely different schedules remaining, here are three bold predictions for how the NL Wild Card race will finish.
Bold Prediction No. 3: Phillies lose series to Brewers, finish 6th in NL, face Braves in Wild Card
Philadelphia drew about as difficult of a final week as possible. The Phillies open with the Milwaukee Brewers, owners of baseball's best record, before finishing against the Tampa Bay Rays, who are still trying to officially secure the AL East. Milwaukee also has something to play for with the Dodgers chasing them for the best record in the NL.
That's why the Brewers will take two of three in Philadelphia. The Phillies have Zack Wheeler and an improving Aaron Nola lined up for the first two games, but they aren't expected to use Cristopher Sánchez or Jesús Luzardo (IL) during the series. Milwaukee has already reached 98 wins and has enough offensive firepower and pitching depth to make Philadelphia pay.
The Rays series could eventually become Philadelphia's opportunity. Tampa Bay is closing in on the AL East and a first-round bye, and once those are secured, staying healthy becomes more important than chasing meaningless wins. Andrew Painter and Sánchez could also give the Phillies favorable pitching matchups.
The problem is Philadelphia may need nearly all three games by then. The Phillies own the tiebreaker over San Diego but not Chicago, meaning losing ground against Milwaukee could leave them needing a sweep just to climb out of the No. 6 seed. My prediction: Philadelphia can't completely recover and finishes sixth, sending it to Atlanta for the Wild Card Series.
Bold Prediction No. 2: Cubs lose series to Red Sox, finish 5th in NL, face Padres in San Diego
Chicago has the most favorable opening series of the three contenders, drawing the eliminated Miami Marlins at Wrigley Field. That should allow the Cubs to remain near the top of the Wild Card standings before things become considerably more difficult in Boston.
The Red Sox have already secured a postseason berth, but they're still fighting for Wild Card positioning and trying to rediscover their best baseball before October. Boston cooled off after the scorching stretch that pushed it into the postseason, and the final series against Chicago represents an opportunity to build momentum before the Wild Card round.
Chicago also has to navigate the final week without Alex Bregman, who suffered multiple facial fractures after being struck by a foul ball Sunday. Bregman could potentially return for the postseason, but his absence removes one of the Cubs' most important bats from the lineup at the worst possible time.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is still capable of carrying Chicago offensively after an incredible season that includes 45 home runs, but Boston will take two of three. That opens the door for San Diego to pass the Cubs outright and forces Chicago to travel west for October.
Article Continues BelowBold Prediction No. 1: Padres stay hot, finish 4th in NL, host Cubs in Wild Card
There isn't a team in this race playing better baseball than San Diego.
The Padres have won 13 of their last 14 games entering Tuesday and have completely erased the gap that once separated them from Chicago. Now comes their biggest test: three games at Dodger Stadium against a Los Angeles team that has already clinched the NL West and is closing in on a first-round bye.
San Diego will pass it.
The Padres aren't playing like a team hoping to sneak into October. Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Ty France have helped ignite an offense that suddenly looks dangerous, while the pitching staff has stabilized and the bullpen remains one of San Diego's greatest advantages. Mason Miller gives the Padres a dominant weapon at the back end when these games inevitably become tight.
San Diego will take the series from Los Angeles and carry that momentum into Arizona. The Diamondbacks could still have something to play for, but the Padres have come too far to give away home-field advantage now.
After traveling to Chicago for last year's Wild Card Series, the Padres will flip the script in 2026.
San Diego finishes as the No. 4 seed. Chicago finishes No. 5.
And this time, the Cubs have to come to Petco Park.