Week 8 is in the books and it brought us some wild performances, but good and bad. These are the 10 takeaways you need to know ahead of Week 9.
1) Bucs chase history in Week 8 monsoon
The Bucs had a -28 percent pass rate over expected in Week 7. Baker Mayfield threw just 11 passes in a blowout win over the Panthers. There was almost no way the team could go more run-heavy in Week 8. Almost.
Playing in a monsoon against an imploding Falcons offense, the Bucs attempted three passes in the first half, completed none of them, and gave up on the forward pass entirely in the second half. The Bucs became the first team since 1974 to go an entire game without completing a pass. We might never see anything like their -48 percent PROE again in our lifetime. Because of this, Bucky Irving racked up 27 carries and Kenneth Gainwell got to 25. Gainwell iced the game with 18 carries in the fourth quarter compared to one for Irving. It’s not a coincidence that Gainwell is coming off back-to-back high-water marks in carries. They were also his highest and third-highest carry shares of the year. It’s hard to buy this newfound committee approach as anything other than the product of two absurd games. I’m not expecting much more than RB4 fantasy numbers from Gainwell going forward. Irving, meanwhile, is working toward an RB1 ranking.
2) Lions can’t stop a nosebleed
Wow, this defense is bad. And that’s great for fantasy. No defense is giving up more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than Detroit. Their 25.5 fantasy points per game allowed to QBs is the highest mark since the turn of the century. That passing production has largely been funneled to tight ends, where Detroit again leads the league in points per game allowed. At 27.9 PPR per game against, the Lions are also the worst defense versus tight ends in the past 25 years. The most interesting thing is that the Lions’ defense isn’t even last in EPA per play or EPA per dropback allowed. It’s the combination of their elite offense and bottom-feeder defense that creates a windfall of fantasy points for opponents. For those in the streaming streets, Malik Willis and Greg Dulcich face Detroit in Week 9.
3) Buy the Drake London dip
There are eight receivers in the NFL with a weighted opportunity rating—a combination of target share and air yards share—of at least 70. Their average fantasy points per game is over 20. Even taking away Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is miles ahead of everyone else, the average only falls to 17.5 points per game. Long story short: Players who see the ball a lot tend to score boatloads of fantasy points.
No one has told Drake London this. He is one of the eight players with a WOPR of at least 70. He’s averaging 13.4 points per game. Only London and Carnell Tate are averaging fewer 17 points per game. Atlanta’s passing attack hasn’t been great under Michael Penix, but it hasn’t been all that bad either. He is 20th in yards per game and 13th in adjusted yards per attempt. I’ll be buying London in all formats.
4) JSN running circles around the rest of the league
JSN’s brilliance has become almost forgettable because of just how often he looks like the best receiver on the planet. At this point, it’s only notable when he has a quiet game. His 150-yard, one-touchdown outings are getting boring. But he really is in a league of his own right now. Puka Nacua is second in the NFL in WOPR at 78. JSN is at 90, a mark no one has achieved—or even gotten that close to—in the past decade. Smith-Njigba has been on the receiving end of 46 percent of the Seahawks’ first-read targets. No other receiver is even at 40 percent. He’s averaging 27.5 PPR points per game. If it holds, that will be the Super Bowl era record by a comfortable margin.
5) Matthew Golden: Air yards aficionado
At 1,165 air yards through eight games, Matthew Golden is on pace for 2,476 air yards. The last time anyone got over even 2,000 was 2022. Golden is on pace for the most air yards in a single season since Mike Evans in 2016. All of this volume has Golden scoring 16.4 PPR points per game, making him the WR13. Room for growth still exists based on efficiency. Golden is converting a measly 53 percent of his air yards into actual yards. His conversion rate ranks 50th out of 54 wideouts with at least 30 targets. Golden’s league-leading nine drops and mediocre 40 percent contested catch rate are large sources of unconverted air yards. If he can improve on either front, a top-12 season will be the baseline.
6) Seahawks get their backs back
Seattle got Jadarian Price and Zach Charbonnet back last week. Price missed a month on IR with a chest injury while Charbonnet had been recovering from the torn ACL he suffered in the 2025 postseason. The backfield split on Monday night was more of a drive-to-drive committee than most anticipated. Charbonnet drew the start and was on the field for the vast majority of Seattle’s three short-lived drives that opened the game. He then went to the bench to watch Price and George Holani split all 15 of the team’s plays over the next four drives. The snaps went 20-12 in Price’s favor over the final four drives.
Price wound up running 41 percent of the routes and earned a 10 percent target share on top of his 59 percent carry share. He also got half of the two-minute drill snaps and George Holani took the other half. These backfield dynamics could change as both running backs get more reps under their belts, but this was a strong showing from Price as far as the workload is concerned.
7) Bears passing game check-in
The Bears have had Caleb Williams back in the lineup for three weeks, giving us some data to work with that isn’t tainted by their backup quarterbacks. With Williams back in the lineup, Loveland is looking like the team’s top pass-catcher.
| Route Rate | Target Share | Air Yards Share | PPR/GM | |
| Colston Loveland | 79% | 28% | 26% | 16.6 |
| Luther Burden | 60% | 23% | 22% | 19.9 |
| Rome Odunze | 97% | 15% | 40% | 10.2 |
Loveland’s route rate of 79 percent isn’t ideal, but his ability to earn targets is so strong that a slightly underwhelming route rate is ultimately a non-issue. He’s not quite in the Brock Bowers and Trey McBride tier of tight ends, but he’s in the mix for TE3.
Odunze’s role is the same as always. He runs every route and doesn’t earn many targets, but all of his opportunities are extremely high-value. They’re also high-variance. He’ll likely have a massive spike week in the near future, but predicting when it hits will be a fool’s errand.
Burden’s role is downright dreadful. He’s a part-time player with an aDOT of 6.2. The only thing saving him from WR4 purgatory is his world-class talent. There was, sadly, no way to see this coming. Burden leads the league in yards per route run (4.01) and total YAC (176) since Williams returned. I don’t think those numbers are sustainable. I’m also not sure it’s sustainable for Ben Johnson to keep his best player off the field for 40 percent of the passing plays. Something has to give. I’m betting on the role improving.
8) Man coverage specialists
There are six wide receivers who average one more yard per route run versus man coverage compared to zone. This is the list with their YPRR versus man noted:
- Tee Higgins (4.4)
- Xavier Worthy (2.3)
- Demario Douglas (3.1)
- Josh Downs (2.3)
- Keon Coleman (2.9)
- Kalif Raymond (2.1)
It’s a motley crew of pass-catchers. Tee Higgins easily leads the league in YPRR and explosive plays (six) against man coverage. Not only is he a dominant jump-ball specialist, but he gets to leverage that skill set against defenses that can’t afford to shift resources away from Ja’Marr Chase. It’s a great setup for him.
Coleman aside, the rest of this group are small speedsters. Worthy’s high YPRR is mostly the result of a single 41-yard gain. Douglas, on the other hand, was also above three YPRR last year. He and Efton Chism have both had loads of success against man this year. The good news for Drake Maye is that the team’s best receiver against zone, Mack Hollins, is set to return from IR as soon as Week 9.
Coleman and Raymond are both seeing their roles decline. Even if there is a kernel of truth to their YPRR, it’s not something fantasy managers should concern themselves with.
Given Downs’ disappointing year, it’s surprising to see him grade out so well against any coverage. The fact that he’s regularly beating corners one-on-one suggests another team might be able to get a lot more out of him than the Colts.
9) Zone coverage specialists
You’re not going to believe it, but I pulled the same data for zone coverage beaters:
- Christian Watson (3.2)
- Luther Burden III (3.0)
- Denzel Boston (1.8)
- Zay Flowers (4.0)
- Puka Nacua (3.0)
The cutoff for this list, however, was a +1.2 YPRR differential. Flowers has still feasted against man coverage. He’s just that much more of a monster versus zone. Nacua hasn’t been bad against man either, averaging a respectable 1.8 YPRR.
Burden is in the middle. He’s not dreadful against man coverage, but a mark of 1.2 YPRR is relatively weak. He’s also last among Chicago’s pass-catchers in that regard, so there’s not much of a reason for the team to force throws his way when the defense shows man coverage. Though only tangentially related, this could also be part of the reason Burden doesn’t play every snap. He’s an admittedly limited player.
Boston is 0-of-6 on contested targets against man coverage with one drop. He’s 5-of-9 against zone with zero drops. There’s almost no difference league-wide in contested catch rates based on coverage. The fact that Boston has such drastic splits might be nothing but noise.
As for Watson, the Packers send Matthew Golden deep and target him at a high rate against man. He has 17 targets and 299 air yards versus man compared to nine and 66 for Watson. When it comes to zone coverage, Watson only has three fewer targets at a near-identical aDOT.
10) Week 9 takeaways
So I didn’t really give many concrete takeaways in those last two sections, huh? Here are some good matchups this week.
Burden gets a date with the Bucs, who use zone at the sixth-highest rate in the league. He’s going to get away with it again.
The Packers face New England. The Pats use man coverage on 43 percent of their snaps. You’re starting both Watson and Golden, but it’s a particularly awesome spot for the latter, who is also the healthier Green Bay wideout. Golden still looks like a buy to me, even as the price has gone up in fantasy circles.
Boston gets a zone-heavy Saints defense this week. I’m not sure his splits are even that predictive, but it can’t hurt to have him face a Saints defense that plays a lot of zone but isn’t even good at it. New Orleans ranks 26th in EPA per dropback allowed when in zone coverage.
