3 Spurs bold predictions for upset of Thunder in 2026 Western Conference Finals

The San Antonio Spurs are headed to the Western Conference Finals.

After dismantling the Minnesota Timberwolves in six games, capped by a dominant 139-109 blowout in Game 6, the Spurs have made it clear they are not a team that showed up to participate . They showed up to win.

Standing in their way is the Oklahoma City Thunder, the defending NBA champions , who enter as the No. 1 seed with a 64-18 record and an 8-0 postseason mark in 2026 . On paper, San Antonio looks like the underdog. On paper.

But this Spurs team has Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, and De’Aaron Fox — three players capable of making the impossible look routine. Here are three bold predictions for how San Antonio pulls off one of the biggest upsets in recent NBA history.

Wembanyama Dominates the Paint and Holds Chet Holmgren Under 14 Points Per Game

Victor Wembanyama has been a problem for everyone in these playoffs. Through ten postseason games, Wembanyama is averaging 20.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, and a staggering 4.1 blocks per game while shooting an efficient 53.8% from the field . He was particularly electric against Minnesota, dropping 39 points and 15 rebounds in a pivotal Game 4 and following it up with a near-effortless 27-point, 17-rebound performance in Game 5 .

On the other end, Wemby’s rim protection will be the single biggest deterrent to Chet Holmgren and the Thunder’s interior attack. Holmgren has been excellent this postseason, averaging 17.3 points and 8.5 rebounds per game, but Wembanyama changes the physics of the paint in ways that no other player in the league can.

The bold prediction: Wemby’s defensive presence forces Holmgren into uncomfortable possessions, limits his paint touches, and holds him to fewer than 14 points per game in the series. When you have the most unique defensive force in the sport anchoring your paint, you make Chet Holmgren a role player. And that changes everything about OKC’s offense.

Stephon Castle Erupts for a 35-Point Performance in a Closeout Game

Nobody in these playoffs has been a more consistent offensive revelation than Stephon Castle. The second-year guard is averaging 20 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game in the Conference Semifinals, shooting 54.8% from the field and 47.8% from three. He already showed out in the biggest moment of the Spurs’ postseason run, torching Minnesota for 32 points on 11-of-16 shooting, including 5-of-7 from deep, in Game 6 to close out the Timberwolves.

Against the Thunder, Castle is going to face a more disciplined defensive scheme, but that is exactly where this prediction gets bold. Castle’s playmaking ability, already averaging over six assists per game this postseason, puts immense stress on OKC’s switching coverages, and his improved three-point shooting (42.4% in the playoffs entering this series ) makes him unguardable in space. The bold prediction: In a pivotal closeout game, Castle goes nuclear for 35-plus points, matching up aggressively against Oklahoma City’s guards and becoming the first name fans associate with this Spurs upset. Castle has already answered every question asked of him. This series will be when he silences the conversation entirely.

De’Aaron Fox Outduels Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in a Deciding Game

This is the boldest prediction of them all, and maybe the most thrilling storyline of the entire 2026 postseason. De’Aaron Fox has been everything the Spurs needed him to be since arriving in San Antonio, averaging 18.8 points, 5.8 assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game through 11 playoff games on 46.2% shooting. In the Game 6 clincher over Minnesota, Fox shot a blistering 8-of-10 from the field, including a perfect 3-of-3 from three, finishing with 21 points, four rebounds, and nine assists in a performance that screamed big-moment player.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite to win this series almost single-handedly, and for good reason — he averaged 33.8 points and 8.0 assists per game against Phoenix in the first round while shooting 55.1% from the field. But Fox is one of the few guards in the NBA fast enough and skilled enough to disrupt SGA’s rhythm. The bold prediction: In Game 6 or Game 7, Fox goes for 30-plus points with six-plus assists, outscores SGA down the stretch, and drills the dagger shot that puts San Antonio in the NBA Finals. Fox has spent his career looking for this moment. Against the defending champions, on the biggest stage, he delivers it.

The Thunder are the favorites. They have home-court advantage, the reigning MVP in SGA, and the deepest roster in basketball. But San Antonio has Wembanyama turning the paint into a no-fly zone, Castle developing into an unstoppable postseason scorer, and Fox chasing a legacy-defining moment every single night. Upsets aren’t supposed to happen, until they do. And this Spurs team has every ingredient to make history.

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