2026 NFL Draft betting: How to make all the right picks

The 2026 NFL Draft isn’t just a day when college football players learn where they’ll play professionally; it’s become a massive spectacle that helps bridge the gap between the end of the previous season and the start of the next.

In fact, last year’s NFL Draft drew an average of 7.5 million viewers! With that, NFL Draft betting has evolved over the years, with sportsbooks adjusting the types of betting markets they offer – including slotted picks, over/under on draft position, first position taken by a specific team, and so much more. 

These markets come about despite so much uncertainty, as we hear reports all offseason long of certain players being courted by certain teams, and it’s hard to know what’s real information and what’s put out there to throw other teams off. 

Below is a complete 2026 NFL Draft guide, which will guide you through betting picks, how the draft works, key storylines, betting tips, and so much more.

2026 NFL Draft betting picks

Here’s a variety of the types of 2026 NFL Draft betting picks and markets you can expect to find. I’ll provide five props I like along with their NFL Draft betting odds from various sportsbooks. 

• Top 5 Pick: Carnell Tate (+275) at Caesars Sportsbook
• Quarterbacks Drafted in 1st Round: Over 1.5 (-190) at bet365 Sportsbook
• Jeremiyah Love Draft Position: Under 4.5 (-180) at FanDuel Sportsbook
• Mr Irrelevant: Quarterback (+1100) at Caesars Sportsbook

How the NFL Draft works

The NFL Draft is a three-day event that spans seven rounds. This year, there are 257 selections in total, and they will take place in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

The first round draft order is determined in reverse order of the previous season’s winning percentage; the worst team picks first. The top four picks, the Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals, and Tennessee Titans, all went 3-14 this past season. 

When there are teams with the same record, that order is then determined by the team’s strength of schedule. For example, the Raiders’ strength of schedule was .538, and the Jets were .552, so since the Raiders had the same record but lost to even worse teams than the Jets, they will pick ahead of them.

From there, each team has a predetermined amount of time to make their selections per round: 

• Round 1: 8 minutes
• Round 2: 7 minutes
• Round 3-6: 5 minutes
• Round 7: 4 minutes 

Teams can make trades before or during the draft. Everything is on the table when it comes to these trades, including that year’s draft picks, players, or future draft picks.

Just this past weekend, the Cincinnati Bengals sent their tenth overall selection to the New York Giants for their defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. The Giants now have picks 5 and 10, whereas the Bengals now don’t have a first-round selection at all (but they do have an elite defensive player!)

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns made a massive trade early on in last year’s draft. The Jaguars traded No. 5, No. 36, No. 126, and their 2026 first-round pick to the Browns for No. 2, No. 104, and No. 200 overall. The Jaguars took Travis Hunter at No. 2 overall. 

During this event, we’re watching the television broadcast, which includes hosts and draft experts providing analysis and insight into possible scenarios. Meanwhile, behind the scenes with the teams, they’re in what they call their “War Rooms” discussing players, calling around for possible trades, and ultimately calling the prospects they’re set to draft. 

Key storylines ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft

Heading into the 2026 NFL Draft, there are so many storylines to follow. I’ll provide bullet points below:

• This draft class is strong at the positions that are not usually drafted highly, such as safety and off-ball linebacker. 
• There aren’t as many blue-chip talents at quarterback, edge rusher, cornerback, and receiver as in previous years. However, there are a lot of quality players at these positions to be had on Day 2. 
• Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza will be the No. 1 overall pick this year, but where will Alabama’s Ty Simpson be selected?
• This is a down year for quarterbacks, and Mendoza would’ve been QB2 or QB3 in the 2025 class, which had Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart, and Shedeur Sanders. 
• With that in mind, teams may look to trade down and acquire more assets for the 2027 NFL Draft, which is being positioned as one of the best years for quarterbacks, including Dante Moore, Arch Manning, Julian Sayin, C.J. Carr, LaNorris Sellers, and more. 

• Expect a massive run of Ohio State players. I expect Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs, Carnell Tate, and Kayden McDonald to all go in the first round. 
• The Cardinals have the No. 3 overall pick, and it’s incredibly unclear what they’ll do. They could draft David Bailey, Arvell Reese, Jeremiyah Love, Francis Mauigoa, or Spencer Fano, or try to trade out. 
• What do the Giants do now that they have two top 10 selections? 
• The Chiefs are picking inside the top 10 for the first time in a while, and it will likely be the last time for a while. Do they make a move to launch up into the top three for a premier player? 
• Will the Steelers get an answer on whether or not Aaron Rodgers will return before the draft? If not, do they assume he’ll be back or draft a replacement? 

I could provide a storyline for each team, but as you can see, there’s a lot this year. Overall, there isn’t that top-shelf talent, but with that is going to come exciting television, as I expect a flurry of trades and action. Finally, here are some names I expect to come off the board on Day 1, plus some potential surprises:

• My top 10 prospects: Jeremiyah Love, Fernando Mendoza, Rueben Bain Jr., Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, Makai Lemon, Caleb Downs, David Bailey, Spencer Fano, and Carnell Tate. 
• Look out for: Chris Johnson (CB – San Diego State), Zion Young (EDGE – Missouri), Malachi Lawrence (EDGE – UCF), Brandon Cisse (CB – South Carolina), Chris Bell (WR – Louisville), Gabe Jacas (EDGE – Illinois), Keith Abney II (CB – Arizona State). 

Top 5 Pick: Carnell Tate

With Mendoza at 1 being virtually guaranteed, I’m looking for better value here at +275, with someone making a move for wide receive Carnell Tate.

There’s been a lot of recent talk about Jordyn Tyson, and while I like Tyson to the point of thinking he’s the most talented receiver in the draft, his injuries are definitely a concern. This recent surge in the narrative around Tyson feels like a smokescreen, and while Tate may not have Tyson’s upside, he’s ready to step in immediately and produce. 

There are a few scenarios where I could see Tate go top five: the Titans at No. 4, the Giants at No. 5, or one of my favorites: the Chiefs trading up from No. 9 overall to either No. 3, No. 4, or No. 5 to get him. 

Wide receiver Rashee Rice has mentioned Tate specifically as a player he’d want on the team, and the Chiefs desperately need more firepower with Patrick Mahomes coming off his torn ACL.

Bet on Carnell Tate to be picked in the top five at +275 with Caesars

Quarterbacks Drafted in 1st Round: Over 1.5

It’s going to be Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Alabama’s Ty Simpson. 

Simpson is a polarizing prospect right now because he looked fantastic and was the likely QB1 during the first half of the college football season. Still, in the second half, his play dipped primarily due to injuries and a lack of a running game. Simpson was dealing with a broken rib, lower back issues, gastritis, and elbow bursitis. 

Another knock against Simpson is that he has only one year of starting experience. That said, the first half of last season showed a player who can make progressions, play in a pro-style offense, and has a fairly strong arm. 

A team will trade back into the first round, similar to what happened with Jaxson Dart in the 2025 NFL Draft, so they can have a fifth year of control over his rookie contract. 

Take the over of 1.5 on quarterbacks to be drafted in round 1 at -190 with bet365

Jeremiyah Love Draft Position: Under 4.5

While running back isn’t exactly the most valued position, we rarely see a prospect of Jeremiyah Love’s ability come into the NFL. He’s up there with the Bijan Robinsons of the world. 

The two spots that make the most sense are the Cardinals and Titans, and more so the latter.

The Titans are in a spot where they have a young quarterback, and they need to add more assets to help him. Love is dynamic both as a runner and as a pass-catcher. 

Another thing to consider is that the Titans are about to move into a new stadium, so advertising Ward and Love would be two massive draws. 

I don’t think the Titans roster is “ready” for Love right now – they need more offensive line help – but I’d be hard-pressed to pass on him. 

Tip Jeremiyah Love to be a top 4 selection at -180 at FanDuel

Mr Irrelevant to be a Quarterback

Right now, the Broncos hold the last pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, which has been dubbed “Mr. Irrelevant.” 

Of course, as we know with 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, a player who had that title bestowed upon him, that player isn’t always necessarily irrelevant. 

For the Broncos here at No. 257, if either of North Dakota State’s Cole Payton or Arkansas’ Taylen Green are here, Broncos head coach Sean Payton will take them.

Why? Remember Taysom Hill in New Orleans? Both of those guys could fit that mold perfectly. Green has a lot of issues, but his combine performance was sensational, so I could see a team taking a chance on him much earlier than this. 

As for Payton (and no, no relation to Sean), a lefty out of North Dakota State? It’s possible. 

Given the +1100 value, I’d take a chance on what is essentially a dart throw to predict which players will be available at No. 257. 

Bet on a Quarterback to be taken with the last pick of the draft at +1100 with Caesars

What can cause NFL Draft betting markets to fluctuate?

The NFL Draft is an event that, if you were to ask bookmakers and heads of sportsbooks, they would say they hate from a business angle. 

This isn’t algorithms like with a game; instead, it’s all about information. In fact, Circa Sports director of operations Jeff Benson told Yahoo! Sports this last year regarding the draft: “It is tons of work for no gain, and we have zero chance to win. We torch five to six figures a year on [it].”

So, as we’re getting information, the bookmakers are, too. So, if a notable name comes out with a mock draft that has a certain player going No. 9 overall, for example, the bookmakers may react to that, and that could impact 2026 NFL Draft betting. 

The bookmaker may luck into having an edge with NFL Draft betting props, but in the end, it’s all random. If you can first learn the information, agree it’s legitimate, and act, you could win. 

So, overall, bookmakers simply respond to what reporters are reporting, just like the regular bettor. 

Highlights of last year’s NFL Draft

Heading into every draft, there are storylines and coming out of the draft, those storylines either end or a new chapter is written. 

Here are some of the highlights of last year’s draft:

• The Jaguars striking a deal to move up from No. 5 to No. 2 to get Travis Hunter. 
• The Giants trading into the first round with the Texans to get quarterback Jaxson Dart. 
• The Buccaneers drafting wide receiver Emeka Egbuka at No. 19 overall. At the time, it looked unnecessary with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but now Evans is gone,e and Godwin is often injured. 
• The Bears selecting Colston Loveland No. 10 overall, providing another weapon to quarterback Caleb Williams.
• Shedeur Sanders, viewed by many as a first-round pick, falling to the fifth round of the draft – eventually being taken by the Browns, who also selected Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel two rounds before that. 
• The Packers taking their first first-round wide receiver in Matthew Golden in decades. 

How to follow the NFL Draft

Here’s where to watch the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft: 

• Date: Thursday, April 23
• Time: 8:00pm ET 
• Venue: Outside of Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• Where to watch: NFL Network, ABC, ESPN

2026 NFL Draft betting FAQs

1. What can cause a player to rise or fall in bookies’ odds ahead of the Draft?

With the NFL Draft, bookmakers rely on information and respond accordingly. However, it’s not always a sure thing if the information is accurate or not, or whether it was accurate at one point but later changed. 

Typically speaking, if a big name in the “draft world” such as Daniel Jeremiah or Peter Schrager put out a mock draft or information, it could shift odds on NFL Draft betting props. 

2. How accurate do the final mock drafts, released by experts just days before the Draft, tend to be?

Not all too accurate at all. Some of the most accurate mockers are Jeremiah and Schrager due to the intel they receive. Famously, during the 2023 NFL Draft, Jeremiah had the Texans taking C.J. Stroud, but also trading back up to take Will Anderson, and that happened. 

That said, even getting a half-dozen exact picks correct would be considered a ‘win’ for those making predictions. 

3. What happens to my bet if a team picks the exact player or position I predicted, but after a trade up or down?

This all depends on the type of bet you make. For example, if you wager on the Giants to take Carnell Tate first and it happens, you’d win. That could be whether they trade up or down. 

However, if you were to predict that the Giants would draft him at No. 10 and they do so at No. 5, you’d lose that bet. 

4. How might a team’s draft last year impact what they do this year?

This would massively impact it. The team-building process includes the draft, then you spend the rest of the offseason developing those players and getting them ready for game day, and during the season, you see the issues with the team, whether that’s with draft picks from last year, players getting older, or players leaving in free agency. 

Then, in free agency before the draft, you fill as many holes as possible, and then in the following draft, you fill in the spots you were unable to fill in free agency. 

It all feeds into each other. 

About the author

Richard Janvrin

Richard Janvrin brings nearly a decade of experience covering sports, sports betting, and everything iGaming. Richard received his bachelor’s degree in Journalism/English from the University of New Hampshire. Throughout his career, Richard has written for sites like Bleacher Report, Forbes, The Game Day, WSN, Gambling.com, and many more.

Find him on Twitter: @RichardJanvrin

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