Women’s Sweet 16 teams, ranked by likelihood to win the national championship in 2026 March Madness

There are a lot of familiar names and faces when it comes to the Sweet 16 in the women’s NCAA tournament. It’s impossible to ignore the brilliance of UConn, the emergence of UCLA as a perennial threat, or the potential to be blinded by the sequins on whatever jacket Kim Mulkey decided to wear that day.

Now we’re breaking down the 16 teams left in the field, which naturally begins with Azzi Fudd, Sarah Strong and UConn, running all the way to some of the surprise teams that busted brackets

1. UConn

Entering the 2026 tournament a perfect 35-0 record, the Huskies have strolled to back-to-back wins of 38 and 53 points in the tournament, with no sign of slowing down. Star senior guard Azzi Fudd has picked up perfectly where Paige Bueckers left off a year ago, joined by the evolution of sophomore Sarah Strong, who is destined to be a future No. 1 overall WNBA draft pick in 2028.

Fudd’s microwave scoring and shot creation garners the majority of attention, but Strong is the ridiculous engine behind this team. She leads UConn in points, rebounds, FG%, steals, blocks, and 3P%. She’s been WNBA-ready since last year, but is comfortable biding her time as the best player in women’s college basketball.

This is a team without a discernible weakness. Attack them one way, and Geno Auriemma will find a way to pivot his lineup with more specialists off the bench who can turn the tide. There’s no good way to deal with UConn, and this is once again their championship to lose.

2. UCLA

It begins with a simple question: Do you have an answer for Lauren Betts? If the answer is “yes,” then congratulations — you have a chance. If not, well, enjoy having some time off.

Betts is a throwback center who doesn’t stretch the floor and can’t shoot from deep, but that might not be a problem when you’re such a force in the middle. The 6’7 center will be strongly debated when the WNBA draft rolls around — but for now he’s a true college superstar averaging 16.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks.

The Bruins typify old-school basketball. Clearly defined roles for each of their five starters, and a game plan that asks for strict adherence to these ideals. That makes UCLA a little vulnerable to teams with stretch play, or hybrid characteristics — making for fascinating matches to close out the tournament.

3. Texas

Oregon was hanging with the Longhorns on Sunday.

Then Madison Booker took over.

Booker exploded against the Ducks, pouring in a career-high 40 points as Texas pulled away for a 100-58 win, booking a spot in the Sweet 16. The three-time All-American was everything the Longhorns needed and more, as she combined with guard Rori Harmon for 64 points, the pair outscoring Oregon on their own.

Harmon saw it coming.

“I saw something coming today,” Harmon said after the win. “I knew something special was going to happen.

“I could say I’m really surprised that she did that tonight, but I’m not. So I expect to see that moving forward.”

The win improved Texas to 33-3 on the season, with those three losses all coming to ranked opponents (LSU, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt). All three of those teams are joining the Longhorns in the Sweet 16.

But what could make the Longhorns dangerous from here on out, besides performances like Booker’s on Sunday, is what they do on the defensive end. Texas held opponents to just 56.3 points per game this season, making them one of the top-15 defenses in the nation. They’ve also forced 22.60 turnovers per game, also a top-15 statistic.

That combination – scoring and defense – should bode well for them going forward. But after the win over the Ducks, coach Vic Schafer pointed to his offense as the catalyst. 

“Like, this might be the best team I’ve had offensively that they understand, they understand how to get the right person to guard them so that the person we’re trying to get ’em the ball will be open. Does that make sense? It’s like there’s just certain plays aren’t going to be open if you let ’em guard you a different way,” said Schafer after the win. “So Jordan Lee’s a prime example. She gets it. And that’s why she’s upset. She thinks she had more assists than two. But this team is really, really cerebral offensively. Like they understand and they understand spacing, they understand where each other’s at, and they understand where Madison needs the ball. I thought we ran some really good stuff, got her some really good looks.”

Up next for Texas? 

A Kentucky team that nearly coughed up a big lead, but held on to beat West Virginia on Monday. These two teams played once already this season, a game the Longhorns won by 11 in Austin.

4. South Carolina

Dawn Staley’s team is still as good as ever, but their No. 4 ranking is more indicative of other teams taking massive steps forward to catch up in 2025-26, rather than anything South Carolina did in isolation.

This iteration of the team is more top-heavy than Gamecock teams of the past, with everything running through sophomore forward Joyce Edwards. Strong inside play is the calling card of this team, which averages 42 rebounds a game and 6.1 blocks. If there’s a weakness to exploit its perimeter shooting on both sides of the ball. They lack key shooters, and the perimeter defenders to disrupt other teams.

Still, South Carolina will eat you alive inside if you’re not ready for them — and you best hope your three is dropping to stay in contention.

5. LSU

Guard play is the name of the game for Kim Mulkey’s 2025-26 LSU team, with depth at both guard spots that trumps most teams in the field. The flip side to this is that they really lack in the front court, which makes them an odd matchup against the likes of South Carolina and UCLA, both of whom have incredibly strong interiors.

Flau’jae Johnson leads the charge for the Tigers, averaging 14.3 points and lifting her three-point shooting this season to 40%, showing some potential that’s yet to be unlocked. Johnson will be a WNBA Top 5 pick, but for now he leads a strong team thats equipped to dominate much of their SEC competition, but could have some problems with better rounded teams.

The x-factor here is the intensity that Kim Mulkey is able to get out of the players. We’ve seen a tendency for this team to be able to flip a switch, transcending their talent on paper and achieve more on the court. This is their key to advancing deeper in the tournament.

6. Vanderbilt

Mikayla Blakes is the driving force for Vanderbilt, and the nation’s leading scorer did not disappoint in the Commodores’ win over Illinois on Monday. Even drawing her fair share of double teams, Blakes poured in 25 points along with ten rebounds and nine assists, falling one assist short of her first career triple-double.

But what makes Vanderbilt dangerous going forward is what happened around Blakes on Monday. Even with the Illinois defense focusing their attention on the star, Aubrey Galvan and Justine Pissott combined for 30 points and six rebounds, helping power Vanderbilt by Illinois and giving upcoming opponent Notre Dame something to think about.

7. Duke

After an early-season loss, the Duke Blue Devils went 22-3 the rest of the way, including a run to their second consecutive ACC Tournament title. Third-seeded Duke also moved into the Sweet 16 with wins over No. 14 Charleston, and No. 6 Baylor.

But when they reach the Sweet 16, the team waiting for them will the LSU, the team that handed Duke that loss prior to the 22-3 stretch. A team coming off blowout wins over Jacksonville and Texas Tech, and having set a new NCAA record by scoring 100 or more points for the 16th time this season. Flau’Jae Johnson, who scored a game-high 18 points in the meeting between these two teams earlier in the year, poured in 24 as the Tigers defeated Texas Tech to advance on Sunday. 

Duke head coach Kara Lawson is “excited” about the matchup.

“I haven’t watched them obviously since we played them. So I can’t give you anything new on it or what’s different, but obviously one of the top teams in the country. Really good on both ends of the floor,” said Lawson after the win over Baylor.

“We’ll watch film, and we’ll get prepared. We’ll make the long flight out to California. We’re excited to be in the Sweet 16 again and excited about the matchup.”
On paper, this looks to be a tough matchup for Duke, given the history and LSU’s prolific offense, ranked No. 1 in the nation in scoring. If Duke gets past the Tigers, they could make a deep run, but this is a massive hurdle that awaits.

8. Michigan

Michigan has had a fantastic season, but there’s this unshakeable feeling that it’s just a touch too early for them to really make noise in the tournament beyond the Sweet 16. Their four top players are all sophomore guards, the front-court play is predominantly made up of transfers, and it’s a shaky recipe for postseason success.

Make no mistake: We’re going to hear about Michigan becoming a force after years of being just “fine,” but wait until next year to see some more recruits come in, this team to get a little more experience under its belt, and then we can see how high they soar.

9. Louisville

The key strength of Louisville’s this season has been running at a breakneck pace. The Cardinals’ offense made 30.4 field goals per game, good for 9th in the nation while slowing the pace down on defense and allowing just over 22. That has been how this team has won while taking a holistic approach to basketball which has led to the team having a 54% true shooting percentage on the season without a signature, overwhelming star player.

This a sneaky team that wont necessarily dominate one aspect of the game, but plays mistake-free basketball across their starting five. A team that isn’t ready to contend across the board will struggle with both the efficiency and depth that this team brings to the table, but when it comes to star talent they can lag behind.

10. Oklahoma

The Sooners have been a solid, though unremarkable team prior to arriving in the SEC. Now they’re shaping up to be a force in the making. This is the second-straight Sweet 16 appearance for Oklahoma, and they’re being led by a phenom freshman in Aaliyah Chavez, who could easily be a Top 5 pick in the WNBA Draft when she’s eligible.

Chavez is a fantastic scoring guard averaging 18.3 points this season, with court vision to get other players involved. At this point her three-point shot is still a work in progress, and scoring efficiency needs to be improved, but she’s a good ball handler with a solid jab step she uses to get into the lane.

The Sooners likely aren’t a major threat against top teams unless Chavez’s shot starts to fall (which she’s struggled with this tournament), but another team to give a couple of years and some more pieces. Then the Sooners might be Final Four caliber.

11. North Carolina

UNC is another team that has an upward trajectory, but simply isn’t there yet. Much credit goes to head coach Courtney Banghart, who took over the program in 2019-20 and has been drastically improved the Tar Heels from missing the tournament for three straight years, now into making three Sweet 16s in the last five years.

Still, there’s a lot of work to be done. UNC plays a holistic offensive game that equally involves all its starters, which is nice — but the Heels still lack that signature star player to get them through in the clutch. There’s a very real chance that sophomore Lanie Grant and her staggering 42.8% three point shooting can get them there, but at times she’s seemed hesitant to take a leadership role, instead following the guidance of the team’s more tenured players.

North Carolina is a good, not great team that needs a lot of time and recruiting to contend with juggernauts in their backyard with Duke and South Carolina.

12. TCU

It took overtime against Washington, but TCU is headed back to the Sweet 16.

It also took a command performance from Olivia Miles.

The senior guard dropped a double-double on Sunday, and after the game admitted to “crashing out” as she refused to see her collegiate career come to an end against the Huskies.

“I owe it all to my teammates, to be honest. I was crashing out multiple times. I was angry, I was feeling all the emotions because I didn’t want to go home. I don’t want them to let my team down,” Miles said. “It’d be a disservice for me not to be resilient for them, and for myself.”

“That was just a gritty, resilient game,” third-year TCU coach Mark Campbell said. “We were down the whole time, just stayed in the fight. And we grinded that thing out, got it to overtime, and then we finally broke loose. … Winning in March is so stinking hard.”

And it will only get harder for the Horned Frogs from here on out. Waiting in the Sweet 16 for TCU? That would be Iowa, fresh off a command performance against Virginia in the Round of 32. But what could give TCU an edge is the streaky play from the Hawkeyes, who have looked like one of the better teams in college basketball at time this season – like in an earlier win over Nebraska – but then needed a career-best performance from Ava Heiden to sneak by No. 15 seed Fairleigh DIckinson in the first round.

13. Minnesota

Minnesota is heading to their first Sweet 16 in over two decades.

Amaya Battle’s late jumper touched off a raucous celebration at Williams Arena, and while a review put 0.8 seconds back on the clock, it was not enough for Ole Miss, and Minnesota advanced to the Sweet 16 with a 65-63 win on Sunday:

It was the kind of moment Battle, like any basketball player, has dreamed of.

“I think any basketball player, when you shoot on your own, you’re like, ‘OK, three, two, one,’ throw it up there and see what happens,” said Battle. “It was real life today.”

The road now gets tougher, as the No. 1 seed UCLA Bruins await Battle and company in the Sweet 16. But having already lived one dream, is a second too much to ask?

Against the powerhouse Bruins – who beat Minnesota 76-58 on the road earlier this season – it might be.

14. Notre Dame

The Irish are a very good team with one glaring weakness: They operate as a monolith. Standout guard Hannah Hidalgo is this whole team on offense, which is a double-edged sword, where there are times she will completely take over a game, and those where she struggles and the Irish fall flat.

Hidalgo has averaged an impressive 25.2 points-per-game this season, but Notre Dame have really struggled when she doesn’t get her shots. The best example of this came on January 19, when Hidalgo was held to 16 points on 5-of-15 shooting, losing to UConn 85-47 in the process. That’s the point in this tournament that we’re hitting, with the best teams heading the Irish’s way.

Hidalgo will be a high pick in the 2027 WNBA Draft because she is an elite scorer, but the key problem right now for Notre Dame is that they’ve been unable to surround her with elite talent. It makes this team good enough to surprise teams and make it this far, but they will run into a more complete team in this tournament.

15. Kentucky

As the fourth quarter began on Monday, Kentucky held a 62-50 lead over West Virginia.

But the Wildcats were outscored 23-12 in the fourth, holding on for a slim one-point win over the Mountaineers. Teonni Key had 19 points and 10 rebounds, and Clara Strack had 18 points and 15 rebounds to key Kentucky to the victory.

Second-year head coach Kenny Brooks wanted to take a moment to savor a trip to the Sweet 16 after the win.

“To do this in two years is pretty remarkable,” said Brooks. “So heck yeah I’m going to step back and smell the roses and enjoy this.”

However, he’ll need to turn his attention quickly to the new task at hand, a rematch with No. 1 seed Texas. These two teams met earlier this year in Austin, a game won by the Longhorns 64-53. But in Strack, the Wildcats have a matchup problem that could give the Longhorns defense fits, as West Virginia head coach Mark Kellogg noted after the game. “She’s an All-American for a reason,” said Mark Kellogg. “She’s a matchup problem. She’s perfected her craft, for sure.”

When these two teams met earlier this season, Texas held Strack to 14 points on 5-of-12 from the floor. But if she can get going in the rematch, the Wildcats have a chance at moving on.

16. Virginia

It took a pair of overtimes, but the tenth-seeded Cavaliers went into Carver-Hawkeye Arena and knocked off Iowa 83-75, for perhaps the biggest win for the program since the 1991 squad that reached the title game.

In the process, Virginia became the first First Four team in women’s NCAA tournament history to reach the Sweet 16.

Now they’ll get a TCU team that also needed overtime to advance to the Sweet 16.

While the Cavaliers lost their last three games before the tournament, they are on something of a roll now. Virginia knocked off Arizona State in the First Four, earning a spot in the field. Then they knocked off No. 7 Georgia, also in overtime, setting up their date with No. 2 Iowa.

What you can say about this team is that they are poised, and battle tested. Virginia erased an eight-point deficit against the Bulldogs to force overtime, and on Monday against Iowa the Cavaliers trailed by 11 when the fourth quarter began. But Virginia outscored Iowa 18-9 in the final quarter to force overtime, and outlasted the Hawkeyes from there.

They have the scoring to win, thanks to Kymora Johnson, Sa’Myah Smith, and Paris Clark. And they have the momentum as well.

Whether that is enough against TCU is a separate question