Why are Turkey out of the World Cup? FIFA rule change means they cannot finish third

We’re not even halfway through the second round of group games at the 2026 World Cup, but two teams have already been mathematically knocked out of the tournament.

Haiti were the first to succumb to that fate after losing 3-0 to Brazil in Group C, with Turkey eliminated following their 1-0 Group D defeat to Paraguay a matter of hours later.

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On paper, it’s easier than ever to qualify for the knockout stage – the eight best third-placed finishers join the top two in each group in go through.

But a rule change means Haiti and Turkey can finish no higher than fourth in their respective groups despite each having one match left to play and just three points between them and third.

New World Cup, new rules

At the 2026 World Cup, if two or more teams finish the group with the same number of points, they are not separated by goal difference.

Instead, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record against the other sides – using points gained, followed by goal difference, then goals scored.

After losing their first two games, the only team Haiti could catch are Scotland – but having lost to them in their opening match, they cannot leapfrog them into third.

It’s the same situation for Turkey, who have lost to each of the two sides three points ahead of them: Australia and Paraguay.

As such, there’s only pride left to play for when Haiti and Turkey face Morocco and the USA respectively in their third and final games of the tournament.

The next steps

Goal difference was the primary tiebreaker in World Cups until 2022, having replaced goal ratio in 1970.

FIFA’s move aligns the World Cup with the Euros, which uses head-to-head record as its first means of separating teams locked together on points.

If teams still can’t be separated using the head-to-head method, however, outright goal difference comes into play.

And if they’re still locked together after that, the last resort is to use their positions in the most recent FIFA World Ranking.

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Disciplinary record has previously been used as a tiebreaker at the World Cup, with Senegal exiting the tournament that way in 2018.

On that occasion, Japan advanced to the last 16 at Senegal’s expense by virtue of receiving fewer yellow cards.

Haiti and Turkey head home, two other nations march on

While Haiti and Turkey will soon be heading home, two sides have already booked their place in the last 32.

Mexico were the first to do so, making it two wins from two by beating South Korea 1-0 in Group A.

Fellow co-hosts the USA then did exactly the same thanks to their 2-0 Group D victory over Australia.

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Sweden and Germany could seal their passage to the knockout stage with the right set of results this weekend.