What would it take to get Raiders to trade No. 1 overall pick in NFL Draft?

The Las Vegas Raiders’ season is over, and now all they have to look forward to is improving the roster during the offseason. The team has one of the most crucial decisions to make in franchise history ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft, as they own the number one overall pick. The Geno Smith experiment failed, so consensus is that Las Vegas will draft either Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore with the first overall selection. It isn’t clear which way the Raiders are leaning, and the Indiana vs. Oregon game in the Peach Bowl will certainly have large implications on the Raiders’ decision.

The team isn’t locked into choosing one of those quarterback prospects, though, and the Raiders will certainly ensure they exhaust all options to make the right choice. After all, the team has only picked first overall once before, and they selected JaMarcus Russell, the biggest draft bust in NFL history. The Russell decision set the franchise back for years. If the Raiders don’t fall in love with Mendoza, Moore, or one of the other prospects in this class, they could just outright trade the pick.

That would be a risky decision, but trading out of pick one isn’t unprecedented. In fact, the team that owned the number one pick originally has traded it away 13 times before, most recently in 2023 when the Carolina Panthers traded up to take Bryce Young. Could the Raiders do the unexpected and trade the number one pick? If they did, what kind of trade package would come in return?

What would a trade package for the No. 1 pick look like?

The cost of acquiring the first overall pick has certainly increased over the years. The first time that pick one was traded was when the 1967 New Orleans Saints moved the selection that would become Bubba Smith for a backup quarterback of the Baltimore Colts. Granted, expectations were high for Gary Cuozzo because he was Johnny Unitas’ backup, who was one of the best players in NFL history.

Still, this was an underwhelming return for New Orleans, and Cuozzo failed with the Saints because he only lasted one season with the team. The Bears-Panthers recent trade was the first overall pick for DJ Moore, the ninth overall selection, two second-round picks, and a future first-rounder. The Bears got the better end of that deal because the Panthers struggled in Young’s first season, so the future first-round pick turned into another number one overall pick, which the Bears used to take Caleb Williams.

Other notable draft classes where the first pick was traded were 2001, 1995, and 1968. In 2001, both the San Diego Chargers and Atlanta Falcons reaped the rewards of making a risky trade for years to come. The Atlanta Falcons moved up to pick one to select Mike Vick. While there is a case that Lamar Jackson has since passed him, Vick was long viewed as the best rushing quarterback in NFL history. He revolutionized the game, and the sport still feels his impact. The San Diego Chargers also got one of the best players in history, as trading down to pick five netted the team LaDainian Tomlinson, the seventh all-time leading rusher. San Diego also added Tim Dwight and two second-round picks.

The trading of the 1995 first overall pick was an example why such a decision can blow up in a teams face. The Cincinnati Bengals included a third-round pick to move up from five to one and select Ki-Jana Carter, but injuries slowed the Penn State running back down before he had a chance to get going, and he ended up becoming one of the biggest draft busts ever. The 1968 NFL Draft class is another noteworthy time the first pick was traded, although the circumstances behind that number one pick were unique.

When the AFL and NFL merged, the New York Giants were awarded a weird clause that guaranteed them the first overall pick in either 1967 or 1968. The team actually traded that clause, along with another first-round pick and two second-round picks, for Fran Tarkenton. Tarkenton was the NFL’s first great scrambling quarterback.

History shows that a trade-up to pick one costs a pretty penny, and the price has only increased over the years. Usually, the cost of doing business is two first-rounders and picks in the second or third round. Sometimes a sweetener is required, too. Of course, if the team trading for the first overall pick is also picking near the top of the draft, then it will cost less to trade up, but a team without a premier first-round pick could have to trade even more.

Would the Raiders actually trade the first overall selection?

At this point, it seems unlikely that the Raiders would trade the first pick. Most teams that trade out of the top slot usually already have their quarterback position figured out, as quarterbacks nearly always go at the top of the draft. The Raiders need their quarterback of the future, so they can’t afford to pass on one while having the luxury of owning the first overall pick. There is a chance that the team doesn’t like either Mendoza or Moore and will, therefore, trade the top pick for a haul of assets. In all likelihood, though, the team will select the Oregon product or the Indiana Heisman winner to lead their franchise going forward, though.

If the Raiders ended up expressing interest in moving out of the top slot, the teams that could be interested in moving up for a quarterback are the New York Jets (picks 2/16), Arizona Cardinals (3), Cleveland Browns (6/28), Miami Dolphins (11), and Los Angeles Rams (13/30). The Jets, Cardinals, Browns, and Dolphins were among the worst teams in the NFL this season, largely because of poor quarterback play.

The Jets will likely take whoever doesn’t go first overall out of Mendoza and Moore, but if they like one significantly more than the other, they could trading up to ensure they get their guy and to make sure another team wouldn’t leapfrog them. As it stands, the quarterback-needy Cardinals likely won’t get one of the top quarterbacks, but trading up to pick one would ensure they do. A trade with either of these teams for the Raiders would have to be intriguing because they could still pick inside the top three after trading down.

The Browns tried out two rookie quarterbacks this year, but neither Shedeur Sanders nor Dillon Gabriel established themselves as the long-term signal caller. They could have an enticing package to offer the Raiders, too, as they have two first-round picks this year. The Jets and the Rams are in the same boat.

The Rams don’t clearly need a quarterback. In fact, Matthew Stafford is the frontrunner to win the MVP. The team may have to think about finding his replacement eventually, though, and general manager Les Snead isn’t usually a fan of having a surplus of picks, so it would only be a moderate surprise if he made a big trade to move up in this draft.

This year, trading for the first overall pick would likely require a bigger trade package than ever before. Even then, it still seems like the Raiders would hold onto the pick and take Mendoza or Moore.

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