USC basketball bubble watch: NCAA tournament odds, path to the dance with 1 week to go

USC basketball took its latest massive defeat Wednesday to Washington 91-72. The Trojans already faced shaky ground before that 19-point loss with their NCAA Tournament chances. But USC is trending the wrong direction with the conference tournament still to come.

Head coach Eric Musselman once sparked enthusiasm by landing prized freshman Alijah Arenas. USC even added someone with past Final Four experience in former Auburn Tiger Chad Baker-Mazara.

Except Baker-Mazara left in controversial fashion over behavioral and disciplinary issues. Arenas has only logged in 12 games amid injuries. And Musselman has watched USC go from a fast 8-0 start to losing six straight.

USC’s bubble watch is fading after the Washington loss. Here’s a deeper dive on where things stand with the Trojans.

USC’s current March Madness odds

The website Team Rankings now has USC facing a 1% chance of making the tournament including at-large bid chances.

Even if USC manages to squeak inside the NCAA Tournament, the Trojans likely must settle for a low No. 12 seed.

CBS Bracketology is another that doesn’t offer the Trojans much of a chance to make it. The outlet lists Texas A&M, Santa Clara, VCU and California as its “last four in.”

Yet CBS doesn’t even list USC in the “first four out” criteria, only further emboldening how analysts are writing them off. Ironically, Seton Hall and Indiana rank ahead of USC despite losing to the Trojans earlier this season.

Musselman and company must hit 22 total wins to increase their chances of landing a spot — which jumps to 20.8% probability per Team Rankings. But that’ll mean making a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament coming up.

That’s also going to place pressure on USC to topple projected high seeds Michigan, Nebraska, Michigan State, etc.

Path to the Big Dance

To reiterate in less than five words: Simply win out.

Beating either nationally-ranked Nebraska, Michigan, Michigan State or even Illinois will likely cause the selection committee to rethink adding the Trojans in. It’ll certainly improve their “Quad 1” resume with USC holding nine losses there.

But these last six games have brutalized the Trojans’ chances of making it in. Musselman must find a way to keep USC inspired and motivated despite the long current skid.

The Trojans can certainly aim to boost momentum into their second-ever Big Ten tourney by beating rival UCLA to close the regular season. But even a victory over the Bruins does little to convince the committee to add USC into the 68-team field. USC landing into the Big Ten Championship game raises the hope of getting selected. But their chances are nearing zero percent now.

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