USA vs. Australia 2026 World Cup predictions, odds, pick

It is game two of the Group Stage in Group D at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Seattle, Washington, is the site as two teams look to clinch their tickets to the Knockout Stage. The USMNT and Australia both found wins in their first games of the Group Stage, and look to continue their good form. It is time to continue our World Cup odds series with a USA-Australia prediction and pick.

The USMNT comes in after a dominating performance to open the World Cup. It started in the seventh minute, as Weston McKennie pushed the ball to the left to Christian Pulisic. Pulisic got it back to McKennie on a late run from the midfielder. He poked the ball forward, pulling Orlando Gil off his line. Damian Bobadilla would put a final touch on the ball, scoring an own goal to open the game. Pulisic would not be done creating offense. He found Folarin Balogun in the 31st minute, who drove it past a diving Gil for the goal. Balogun would make it a brace late in stoppage time in the first half.

Pulisic would leave at halftime of the game, though, dealing with an injury in his left calf. That would not slow down the USMNT. Paraguay would find a goal in the 73rd minute. Gil launched a free-kick down the pitch, which found Miguel Almiron. Almiron would get the ball to Julio Encisco, who found an unmarked Mauricio for the goal. Still, it would not be enough for Paraguay as Gio Reyna would add a late goal, and the United States won 4-1.

Meanwhile, Australia is also coming in off a win. Patrick Beach was amazing for the Socceroos, as he made eight saves in the game. He was also the reason for the first goal of the game for Australia. After making a save, he quickly started the counterattack. Paul Okon-Engstler got the ball and pushed it across to Nesory Irankunda, who found the back of the net. As Turkey kept the pressure on the Australian defense, they kept moving on the counter. Connor Metcalfe would then add a goal in the 75th minute as Beach kept the clean sheet and Australia won 2-0.

2026 World Cup odds courtesy of DraftKings

USA vs. Australia 2026 World Cup Odds

USA 3-Way Moneyline: -165

Australia 3-Way Moneyline: +425

Draw: +330

Over 2.5 Goals: -105

Under 2.5 Goals: -120

Keys to USA vs. Australia Matchup

The first key to the match is going to be the health of Christian Pulisic. He left the match against Paraguay, but seems to be confident that he will be playing on Friday. After the match against Paraguay, he downplayed the injury, according to Jeff Carlisle of ESPN.

“I just got a bit of a kick first half, so I’m really hoping that it’s nothing,” Pulisic said. “Taking a little bit of precaution today, but I’m hoping I’ll be fine the next few days. Just the back of my leg, my calf area. But I’ve had similar things before, and I’m staying positive. I don’t think it’s anything at all.”

Pulisic will be needed in this game against Australia. Pulisic created some of the best chances for the USMNT against Paraguay, and creating chances is going to be key against Australia. Turkey held 71.6 percent of the possession in the first game. They had 30 shots, including eight on target. This led to Turkey having a 1.33 expected goals factor. With Australia being content to sit back and wait for the counterattack, the USMNT needs to make the most of their possesion.

For Australia, it is all about playing sound defense and waiting for the best chance to counter. This does not start with the goaltender, though. Australia intercepted seven passes in the game, while having 24 recoveries in their defensive third. Meanwhile, they limited top-quality chances for Turkey. The Socceroos forced Turkey to shoot from outside, with 16 of their 30 shots coming from outside the box. If Australia can execute on the defensive ends and on the counter against the United States, they could pull an upset.

USA vs. Australia Prediction and Pick

The USMNT dominated much of the first game with Paraguay. They had 37.5 percent shooting accuracy, while having six of their 14 shots find the target, resulting in four goals. While Turkey has a potent attack, it was stifled by an amazing performance from Patrick Beach of Australia. Beach would have to have a nearly identical performance to slow down the United States. The US squad will see more possession in this game than they saw against Paraguay and will turn that into goals.

Still, Australia was solid on the counter in their first game, and there is no reason to think they will not do the same. The USMNT will score twice in this game, but will concede a goal in the process. They get the win and clinch Group D, while Australia will need another point in their final game to secure moving on.

Finals USA vs. Australia 2026 World Cup Prediction and Pick: USA ML (-165) and Over 2.5 goals (-105) 

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