Tunisia vs Netherlands predictions and betting tips – Dutch target top spot

The Netherlands are battling it out with Japan for top spot in Group F, with the two teams level on both points and goal difference ahead of matchday three. 

However, the Dutch will advance to the round of 32 one way or another regardless of what happens against Tunisia, whose elimination has already been confirmed.

• Netherlands -2 handicap – 5/7 with 247Bet
• Netherlands to win to nil – 4/6 with Star Sports
• Cody Gakpo to score any time – Evens with Sky Bet

Tunisia vs Netherlands head to head overview

• Date: Friday 26th June.
• Kick-off: 12am.
• Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, USA.
• Where to watch: BBC One and BBC iPlayer.
• Referee: TBC.
• VAR: Yes.
• Last meeting: 11th February 2009; Tunisia 1-1 Netherlands.
• Last 3 matches: Tunisia – 0 wins; Netherlands – 1 win; Draws – 2.
• Favourite to win: Netherlands.

Tunisia vs Netherlands predicted lineups

• Tunisia expected lineup: Dahmen; Valery, Talbi, Bronn, Abdi; Skhiri, Mejbri, Ben Slimane; Achouri, Chaouat, Saad.
• Netherlands expected lineup: Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van Dijk, Van De Ven, Hato; De Jong, Gravenberch, Reijnders; Malen, Depay, Gakpo.

Tunisia vs Netherlands predictions

The Netherlands have made a solid start to World Cup 2026, and whatever happens on matchday three they will advance to the round of 32.

However, plenty can still change for the Oranje on Friday (BST). The outcome of their game against Tunisia, as well as the meeting between Japan and Sweden in Texas, will determine where exactly the Netherlands finish in Group F.

At the time of writing, they are sitting pretty at the summit of the standings. After a 2-2 draw with Japan in their first outing of the tournament, the Netherlands turned on the style to thrash Sweden 5-1 last time out.

But Japan’s 4-0 victory over Tunisia a few hours later means the Samurai Blue are level with the Netherlands on both points and goal difference.

The Dutch are top because they have scored more goals, but even a 2-0 triumph over Tunisia would not be enough to win the group if Japan were to beat Sweden by three clear goals.

Meanwhile, a draw with Tunisia would see Koeman’s team drop down to second place if there is a winner in the Japan vs Sweden contest.

To complicate matters further, it is not yet clear whether it is more favourable to finish first or second in Group F.

The winner will play the runner-up of Group C in the round of 32, while the runner-up will play the winner of that same group. Brazil and Morocco are fighting for top spot in Group C, but we do not currently know who will win that battle.

There are no such permutations for Tunisia to concern themselves with. After thumping defeats by Sweden (1-5) and Japan (0-4), the North Africans are going home after this game.

Tunisia changed their coach after the loss to Sweden, replacing Sabri Lamouchi with Herve Renard, but it did not work. If anything, they were even worse against Japan.

Tunisia vs Netherlands betting tips

Tunisia take on the Netherlands as Group F reaches a conclusion early Friday morning (BST).

Netherlands eye big win

It is hard to overstate just how dismal Tunisia have been at this World Cup.

The group was always going to be tricky for the Eagles of Carthage, who have never reached the knockout phase before. But fans back home expected much more than this total collapse.

It is hard to see how Tunisia will pick themselves up in time for this meeting with the Netherlands, who will be full of confidence after their dismantling of Sweden last weekend.

Another heavy defeat beckons for Tunisia, especially as goal difference could decide whether the Netherlands finish first or second.

Back the Netherlands with a -2 handicap at 5/7 with 247Bet

Will Tunisia score?

At certain major tournaments in the past, Tunisia have been frustrating because it felt like their excessive tactical caution held the team back.

That is not the case this summer. If previous Tunisia sides have looked capable of more than they have offered, this one does not.

Tunisia defending was dire against both Sweden and Japan, but their attacking efforts were even more pitiful in the second match in particular: the North African nation mustered an xG of just 0.05 against the Samurai Blue.

The Netherlands are yet to keep a clean sheet at this World Cup, but they will not get a better chance of a shut-out than this.

Tip the Netherlands to win to nil at 4/6 with Star Sports

Dutch look to attack

As the scoreline suggests, the Netherlands were irresistible going forward in the 5-1 victory over Sweden.

Brian Brobbey and Cody Gakpo both scored twice, while Denzel Dumfries was outstanding as an attacking right-back.

Gakpo also got his name on the scoresheet against Sweden, so his brace last time out sent him joint-top of the goal charts (at least at the time).

Given Tunisia’s defensive vulnerabilities, there is a good chance the Liverpool man will strike again.

Go for Cody Gakpo to score any time at evens with Sky Bet

Tunisia vs Netherlands latest odds

Find the latest Tunisia vs Netherlands betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

More World Cup 2026 predictions

We have plenty more World Cup 2026 predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

Important historical facts about Tunisia and Netherlands for betting

The Netherlands have not lost any of their last 14 World Cup matches, the longest run in the tournament’s history.

Tunisia are the fourth country in World Cup history to lose consecutive World Cup matches by four goals or more.

The Netherlands’ only loss since October 2014 was against North African opposition in Algeria.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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