Thunder vs. Spurs prediction, odds, pick – 12/23/2025

NBA Tuesday is back in action as we’re set to bring you another betting prediction and pick for this intense showdown in the Western Conference. The Oklahoma City Thunder (26-3) will look to avenge their last loss to the San Antonio Spurs (21-7), San Antonio leading the series 1-0. Check our NBA odds series for the Thunder-Spurs prediction and pick.

The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to lead the Western Conference, most recently bouncing back from a loss to beat the Memphis Grizzlies 119-103. Their previous loss came against this Spurs’ team in the NBA Cup Semifinals, so the Thunder will be motivated to get the win back on their record.

The San Antonio Spurs are currently second in the Western Conference, most recently taking down the Washington Wizards 124-113. They’ve gone a very solid 8-2 over their last 10 games, making a serious case for themselves as contenders if they’re able to give Oklahoma City another run for their money.

NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings

Thunder vs. Spurs Odds

Oklahoma City Thunder: -5.5 (-105)

San Antonio Spurs: +5.5 (-115)

Over: 233.5 (-110)

Under: 233.5 (-110)

Thunder vs. Spurs Key Injuries 

Oklahoma City: NOT YET SUBMITTED (update to come)

San Antonio: Victor Wembanyama, Questionable (calf)

Thunder vs. Spurs Betting Trends

• The San Antonio Spurs are 10-2 at home. The Oklahoma City Thunder are 12-2 on the road.
• The Thunder have been listed as betting favorites in every game this season.
• The Spurs are 7-4 as underdogs.
• Both teams are 16-13 ATS overall on the season.
• The Spurs are 9-3 ATS at home, the Thunder are 7-7 ATS on the road.
• Both teams O/U record is 15-14.
• The Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. The Spurs are 4-2 ATS in their last six.
• Oklahoma City is 7-3 outright, 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against San Antonio.
• The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.

Keys to Thunder vs. Spurs Matchup

This matchup was the marquee event during the NBA Cup as Victor Wembanyama and the young Spurs’ core got their first crack at the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder. During that Semifinal game, the Spurs were down 33-49 nearing halftime, but managed to take a 59-56 lead midway through the third quarter. Spurs’ Devin Vassell led the way with 23 points, his third-highest scoring total of the season. Victor Wembanyama was a force on the glass with nine rebounds and two blocks, creating serious resistance for an Oklahoma City squad that lives around the paint and the free-throw line.

Without Victor Wembanyama, who’s listed as ‘questionable’ ahead of this one with a nagging calf injury, the Spurs don’t stand much of a chance to beat the Thunder without size and discipline in the interior. The reason the Oklahoma City Thunder are so effective is that they can get teams into foul trouble quickly as they stack their points on the line. With Wembanyama clogging the paint, his physical presence is enough to deter drives to the hoop without having to foul the other team.

Furthermore, Wembanyama will pose a serious matchup problem for Oklahoma City’s bigs as the team was without Chet Holmgren or Isaiah Hartenstein during their latest win. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander actually led the team in rebounds with 10 during that game, but doing so against Victor Wembanyama won’t be so easy for the reigning NBA MVP.

This time around, we see a much closer betting spread thanks to San Antonio’s first win and Holmgren and Hartenstein potentially missing this game as well. The Thunder are still arguably the deepest NBA in the NBA and with the return of Jalen Williams to the lineup, they’re more than comfortable with a “next man up” mentality knowing they still have their two most effective scorers on the floor. Holmgren also notably added 12 free-throw attempts during their last meeting with San Antonio, so the Thunder will have to find other avenues of finding high-percentage looks.

Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

With the way the NBA Cup Semifinal matchup went between these two teams, we should be in for multiple years of this brewing into the most exciting rivalry in the NBA. Victor Wembanyama, listed as ‘questionable,’ will be the x-factor during this game. If he’s able to play, he immediately puts the Spurs in a position to win. Without him, however, the Thunder may be too deep to contain for four quarters despite all their nagging injuries.

Assuming Wembanyama will see the start, I expect this Spurs team to gain another win over this Thunder squad. While the depth of their roster makes up for minor injuries, not having Holmgren or Hartenstein for this game could be crucial in defending Wembanyama. If Wemby doesn’t play, we’ll have to roll with the Thunder. However, for our final pick, we’ll side with the San Antonio Spurs to cover this spread as the total goes over thanks to a big scoring day from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Final Thunder-Spurs Prediction & Pick: San Antonio Spurs +5.5 (-115); OVER 233.5 (-110)

The post Thunder vs. Spurs prediction, odds, pick – 12/23/2025 appeared first on ClutchPoints.