Super Bowl prediction using the same analytics Tom Brady uses

We are so close to the biggest game of the year, the Super Bowl. The NFL’s decision a few years ago to add a week between conference championship games and Super Sunday has allowed for a lot of different things to fill the void, but nothing is like the big game.

Super Bowl commercials are now available and discussed prior to Sunday, but there is nothing like watching them with your friends and family on the big screen in between possessions of the Super Bowl. You can make a prop bet on what color Gatorade the winning coach will get doused with, but if your team is the winner between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, that sports drink is all the sweeter to your memories. You can read about the best recipes for at-home wings, but there is nothing like nervously eating them as you wonder, “What time will the game actually kick off this year?”

That depends, somewhat, on the length of this year’s national anthem.

Of course, NFL media day and the Pro Bowl Games (with the worst QB ever to participate in one) provide a bit of the “football” action we are used to, before the real football on Super Sunday.

While our experts have already given their Super Bowl 2026 predictions, we will once again be using analytics data to provide you with one more piece of information. Our AFC and NFC championship predictions using analytics were both correct, so, as we have for the last few seasons, we continue our “Analytics Predicts” for the Super Bowl.

FTN’s DVOA is a metric that breaks down the quality of play compared to the league average while adjusting for the strength of the opponents being played. DVOA is one of a couple of catch-all analytics measures that help us understand the beautiful game of football better.

You know who else uses DVOA? Tom Brady! Oh, you knew that because of the title? Well, here is the video of Brady on The Tonight Show talking to Kendall Jenner and Jimmy Fallon about the big game (he mentions DVOA at the 1:40 mark):

For the Super Bowl, we will break down DVOA from the regular season only as well as total DVOA for the regular season and playoffs to try to provide the most complete information possible.

Regular Season DVOA

New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks

• Overall DVOA: New England 9th vs Seattle 1st
• Offensive DVOA: New England 3rd vs Seattle 10th
• Defensive DVOA: New England 23rd vs Seattle 1st
• Special teams DVOA: New England 20th vs Seattle 2nd

Edge: Seahawks – In the regular season, Seattle was the best overall team in the NFL. Their stellar defense and special teams, along with a Top 10 offense, outpaced the Patriots by a wide margin (41.3% to 10.6%). Only two other teams had Total DVOA rates higher than 20%, the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions, during the season, and the Seahawks almost doubled the third-place team’s rate.

Regular Season & Playoffs DVOA

New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks

• Overall DVOA: New England 7th vs Seattle 1st
• Offensive DVOA: New England 5th vs Seattle 8th
• Defensive DVOA: New England 12th vs Seattle 1st
• Special Teams DVOA: New England 20th vs Seattle 2nd

Edge: Seahawks – Even when you add in the playoffs, Seattle stayed at the top of the DVOA standings and actually improved their rate, up 3.6% to 44.9%. The Patriots defense saw a big jump based on their postseason play, which accounts for their 5.9% improvement in Total DVOA when you add in the playoffs. As noted by Doug Farrar, New England’s defense has actually been better than Seattle’s during the postseason:

In the end, Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA, has the last word (unless Tom Brady wants to chime in again), noting that his metric has predicted nine of the last 12 Super Bowl matchups:

FTN’s DVOA data point matches up with the current betting odds, Seattle -235 on the moneyline. Will New England’s much-improved defense keep things closer than the 4.5 spread? Can the Patriots surprise Brady, DVOA, and the betting markets?

That is what makes football, and especially Super Bowl Sunday, so great.