Spurs vs. Warriors prediction, odds, pick – 2/11/2026

As the calendar continues deep into February and the All-Star break looms, the San Antonio Spurs travel to the Bay Area for a high-stakes Western Conference showdown against the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center. This matchup pits the ascending dominance of All-Star starter Victor Wembanyama against a battle-tested Warriors squad looking to defend their home court amidst a season of transition and resilience.

Sure, the Spurs have surged in the conference standings behind a 36-16 record. However, the Warriors (29-25) remain a dangerous threat. That’s especially true with their backs against the wall in front of an electric San Francisco crowd. With postseason seeding on the line and memories of their intense early-season battles still fresh, this contest promises to be a masterclass in contrasting styles. In one corner is the towering rim protection of San Antonio’s ‘Alien’ versus the relentless perimeter gravity and veteran savvy of Golden State.

Spurs vs. Warriors betting odds

Spurs: -6.5, -102
Warriors: +6.5, -118
Over: 218.5, -110
Under: 218.5, -110

(All odds courtesy of Draftkings)

Spurs vs. Warriors key injuries

Spurs: F Lindy Waters III (Knee), F David Jones Garcia (Ankle)

Warriors: G Will Richard (Knee), G De’Anthony Melton (Lower Body), G LJ Cryer (Hamstring), G Stephen Curry (Knee), F Jimmy Butler III (Knee)

Spurs vs. Warriors betting trends

The Spurs and Warriors have played each other 68 times since the 2010-11 season. They have split those head-to-head matchups right at the middle, 34-34. Strangely enough, over their most recent four meetings, the road team has won each time. Golden State has three of those wins. The last time the home team won was back in late 2024, 104-94, in favo of San Antonio. Entering this game, the Spurs have won five of their last six games, including four in a row. The Warriors, meanwhile, have been more uneven. They are fresh from a win over the Memphis Grizzlies, 114-113, but they have lost three of their previous four games before booking that victory.

Several betting trends do indicate that the Spurs and Warriors could have a very tight matchup:

• The Spurs have been one of the most reliable teams on the road this season, covering the spread in 7 of their last 10 away games
• High-scoring affairs are the norm when these two meet in San Francisco. The total has gone OVER in 4 of the last 5 matchups between the Spurs and Warriors at Golden State.
• Golden State is 4-2 ATS (Against The Spread) this season when listed as home underdogs of 5 points or more. They rarely get blown out in front of their home crowd.
• The Spurs have been dominant in the “third-quarter spread” recently. San Antonio leads the league in third-quarter scoring margin over their last 12 games.

2025 records:

San Antonio: 36-17 straight up, 29-23-1 ATS; Golden State: 29-25 straight up, 25-29 ATS

Over/Under:

San Antonio 21-32; Golden State 30-23-1

Keys to Spurs vs. Warriors matchup

San Antonio Spurs

Interior dominance:
San Antonio’s clearest pathway to control lies inside. Wembanyama’s gravitational pull warps defensive coverages. That will open lob threats, weak-side cuts, and perimeter kick-outs. If the Spurs consistently collapse Golden State’s interior defense, they can dictate tempo.

Transition defense:
The Warriors thrive when games become chaotic. This means limiting live-ball turnovers and sprinting back defensively will be critical. Forcing Golden State into half-court execution plays directly into San Antonio’s length advantage.

Bench production:
To justify their road-favorite billing, the Spurs’ second unit must hold scoring parity. Sustained pressure during non-Wembanyama minutes could ultimately decide the spread.

Golden State Warriors

Three-point volume:
Golden State’s identity remains perimeter-driven. Early shooting rhythm will be essential to stretching San Antonio’s rim protection.

Defensive rebounding:
Second-chance points against a Spurs team loaded with length is a losing formula. Gang-rebounding will be required to complete stops and ignite transition offense.

Limit “Wemby” highlights:
You don’t stop Wembanyama, but you can disrupt him. Fronting the post, shading help defenders, and crowding entry angles will force San Antonio’s role players into decision-making roles.

Spurs vs. Warriors prediction and pick

Yes, the Warriors are always dangerous at Chase Center. That said, the Spurs have been one of the league’s most consistent two-way machines this season. Their record reflects elite balance. They employ top-tier defense paired with efficient interior offense.

Golden State should keep things competitive early. Expect crowd-fueled runs to keep the margin tight through three quarters. Over 48 minutes, however, San Antonio’s size, rim deterrence, and half-court execution should wear the Warriors down.

Final score prediction: Spurs 118, Warriors 109
Spread: Spurs -6.5
Over/Under: Over 218.5

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