Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan prediction, odds, pick for UFC London

It’s time for another betting prediction and pick for UFC London: Evloev vs. Murphy as the Main Card continues with a ranked bout in the Middleweight (185) Division. No. 11 Roman Dolidze of Georgia will take on England’s own Christian Leroy Duncan in a high-level matchup. Check our UFC odds series for the Dolidze-Duncan prediction and pick.

Roman Dolidze (15-4) is 9-4 inside the UFC since since 2020, most recently falling to Anthony Hernandez via submission last time out. The loss snapped a four-fight winning streak as he looks to retain his ranking as the significant underdog. Dolidze stands 6-foot-2 with a 76-inch reach.

Christian Leroy Duncan (13-2) has gone 6-2 in the UFC since 2023. He’s won three-straight fights leading into this one, including back-to-back ‘Performance of the Night’ bonuses with knockouts over his last two opponents. Standing 6-foot-2 with a 79-inch reach, Duncan comes in the betting favorite on home soil.

UFC London Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC London Odds: Roman Dolidze-Christian Leroy Duncan Odds

Roman Dolidze: +340

Christian Leroy Duncan: -440

Over 2.5 rounds: -130

Under 2.5 rounds: +100

Why Roman Dolidze Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Anthony Hernandez – SUB (rear naked choke, R4)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 3 SUB

Roman Dolidze fought a hard bout against Anthony Hernandez in his third headlining fight, falling victim to Hernandez’s strong ground game late in the fight. Dolidze isn’t one to pull punches early in the fight, oftentimes expending his arsenal and full gas tank in the opening rounds. This three-round environment could be better suited for his style of fighting at the moment, needing a win to retain his top-15 ranking.

Dolidze leads with tremendous confidence in his chin as he’s never been knocked out, suffering his first and only loss inside the distance during his last bout. He must be aware of the current knockout run Duncan is on, so expect Dolidze to be very defensive throughout this bout. He’s known for exploding into his offense and catching opponents in the process, so that game plan could benefit him against a slight reach disadvantage.

Dolidze has shown small gaps in his defensive grappling, but he’s not likely to need much of it against a kickboxer like Duncan. Dolidze’s greatest strength will be landing the harder shots during the exchanges while mixing in the low leg kicks. If he can hinder the lateral mobility of his opponent, Dolidze will be especially dangerous throwing his strikes down the middle.

Why Christian Leroy Duncan Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Marco Tulio – KO (spinning backfist, R2)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

Christian Leroy Duncan is on a tear right now, landing consecutive spinning backfists in his last two bouts to end both fights before the third round. He finished both fights with follow-up strikes and earned performance bonuses, coming into this bout hoping to come out with a win and a ranking next to his name. Duncan has been one of the more exciting middleweights to watch over the last year and this spot in front of his home country fans could be the breakthrough he’s been waiting for.

Duncan is very measured with his striking approach and lands punches at an impressive 58% accuracy rate. He also defends 51% of strikes coming back his way, so he’s certainly built for a three-round war of attrition where he can out-pace an opponent on the feet.

Duncan is also very patient and doesn’t give many tells as to what he’s going to throw and where it’s coming from. His last two knockouts where both unexpected during two rather tame exchanges, so he’s constantly searching for the openings with a knockout strike loaded and ready.

Duncan will find most success in countering the forward pressure of Dolidze and allowing his opponent to overextend in the exchanges. Watch for Duncan’s ability on the back foot as he’s all the more dangerous when he’s slipping punches and allowing opponents to whiff big and leave themselves open.

Final Roman Dolidze-Christian Leroy Duncan Prediction & Pick

This should be another exciting bout between two dangerous finishers as Christian Leroy Duncan heads into this fight with all the momentum. Roman Dolidze has shown his ability throughout the recent run, but he struggled his last time out against Anthony Hernandez in his first career loss inside the distance.

Christian Leroy Duncan has managed to find unlikely knockouts during his recent run and I expect this fight to end in similar fashion. Behind his 69% takedown defense, he should be dictating where this fight takes place and gauging the striking distance through all three rounds.

For our final prediction, we’re going to side with Christian Leroy Duncan to win in front of his home crowd. We’ll also play it safe and side with the total over, but don’t at all be surprised if Duncan manages to end this fight early with a knockout.

Final Roman Dolidze-Christian Leroy Duncan Prediction & Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan (-440); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-130)

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