Real Madrid vs Benfica predictions and betting tips – Blancos to complete job?

The first leg of this Champions League knockout play-off was overshadowed by the alleged racist abuse suffered by Vinicius Junior. Away from that controversy, Vinicius scored the only goal of the game to give Real Madrid a 1-0 lead.

Can Benfica overturn that one-goal deficit at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, or will Madrid finish the job this week?

• Real Madrid with a -1.5 handicap – 11/10 with Tote
• Real Madrid to win the second half – 7/10 with Betfred
• Vinicius Junior to score any time – 13/8 with 247Bet

Real Madrid vs Benfica odds

Find the latest Real Madrid vs Benfica betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

Real Madrid vs Benfica predictions

The La Liga title race took another twist at the weekend, as Barcelona rose back to top spot at the expense of Real Madrid.

The Blancos had closed the gap on their arch-rivals over the previous few weeks, culminating in them overtaking Barcelona at the summit of the standings on matchday 24.

But Madrid suffered a shock 2-1 defeat by Osasuna last time out, paving the way for Barcelona to retake first place after a 3-0 victory over Levante on Sunday.

Both teams have their fate in their own hands with 13 rounds of fixtures remaining. Win every game from here and Madrid will be champions. So will Barcelona. It could all come down to the Clasico at the Camp Nou scheduled for the weekend of May 9/10.

Whereas Barcelona have the luxury of using the whole of this week to prepare for Saturday’s showdown against Villarreal, Madrid are back in European action on Wednesday.

That is a result of their failure to finish in the top eight of the Champions League league phase, forcing them into the knockout stage play-offs.

Madrid are at least well positioned to advance to the round of 16. They ran out 1-0 winners over Benfica at the Estadio da Luz last week, with Vinicius Junior scoring the only goal of the game.

Moments later Vinicius was the victim of alleged racist abuse from Benfica forward Gianluca Prestianni, who denies all wrongdoing. A UEFA-led investigation is ongoing.

Winning the away leg means Madrid are strong favourites to make it through to the last 16 ahead of the return fixture at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu. However, Alvaro Arbeloa would doubtless have preferred a wider margin of victory in the Portuguese capital.

“This is going to be a long season,” Arbeloa said after the reverse at the hands of Osasuna. “We have another game on Wednesday, and we need to approach it in the best possible way.”

Indeed, Madrid must take care of business in the second leg. There is no doubt they are good enough to do so. 

Benfica only just scraped into the play-offs after finishing 24th in the league phase. They have lost six out of nine matches in this competition, although they did beat Madrid in January. Yet right now, a 1-0 aggregate advantage is too close for comfort.

Real Madrid vs Benfica betting tips

Real Madrid host Benfica in the second leg of this Champions League knockout play-off.

Madrid to make it through

Getting through to the next round is not necessarily the be-all and end-all for Real Madrid.

It would be unthinkable for them to exit at this early stage of the Champions League, but Madrid fans would not be satisfied with a penalty shoot-out victory on Wednesday.

The incident involving Vinicius and Prestianni will have given Madrid extra motivation for the second meeting with Benfica.

There is little chance of Arbeloa’s team losing focus, especially after that loss to Osasuna on Saturday.

A win by a two-goal margin is well within reach for Madrid in this one.

Real Madrid with a -1.5 handicap at 11/10 with Tote

Benfica will struggle

After losing their first four matches in the league phase, Benfica did brilliantly to reach the play-offs. But Jose Mourinho’s men are likely to be outclassed at the Bernabeu. 

There is no great shame in that given the gulf in resources between the two teams. Yet while Benfica might be able to frustrate Real Madrid early on, they will find it difficult to do so for the full 90 minutes.

Madrid have the second-best second-half record in La Liga behind Barcelona, while at home they have won eight of 12 second halves.
The Blancos tend to come on strong as the finish line comes into view and that will probably be the case here too.

Real Madrid to win the second half at 7/10 with Betfred

Vinicius to shine again

It is a shame that Vinicius had to deal with the incident at the Estadio da Luz because it has detracted from the fine form he is in.

It is fair to say the Brazil international has had his ups and downs this season, particularly when Xabi Alonso was in charge at the Bernabeu.

But Vinicius has been excellent of late, scoring five goals in his last four appearances in all competitions.

Playing alongside Kylian Mbappe in a 4-4-2 formation, he is our pick to make the net ripple on Wednesday.

Vinicius Junior to score any time at 13/8 with 247Bet

Real Madrid vs Benfica predicted lineups

• Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Huijsen, Carreras; Valverde, Guler, Tchouameni, Camavina; Mbappe, Vinicius.
• Benfica expected lineup: Trubin; Dedic, Araujo, Otamendi, Dahl; Barreiro, Aursnes; Lukebakio, Silva, Schjelderup; Pavlidis.

Where to watch Real Madrid vs Benfica

• Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid, Spain.
• Date and time: Wednesday 25th February, 8pm.
• How to watch: TNT Sports 1.

More Champions League predictions

We have plenty more Champions League predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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