Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy prediction, odds, pick for UFC 325

UFC 325: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 continues on the main card with a bout between Rafael Fiziev and Mauricio Ruffy in the lightweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Fiziev-Ruffy prediction and pick.

Rafael Fiziev (13-4) rebounded from a brutal decision loss to Justin Gaethje at UFC 313 with a composed unanimous-decision win over Ignacio Bahamondes, showcasing sharper defense and cleaner counters to steady his momentum as he comes into his fight this weekend against Mauricio Ruffy.

Mauricio Ruffy (12-2) enters off a setback to Benoit Saint-Denis, submitted in round two after four straight wins, including a statement KO over King Green and a blistering first-round finish of Jamie Mullarkey, underscoring his explosive “One Shot” power as he comes into his fight this weekend against Rafael Fiziev.

Here are the UFC 325 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 325 odds: Rafael Fiziev-Mauricio Ruffy odds

Rafael Fiziev: +102

Mauricio Ruffy: -122

Over 2.5 rounds: -180

Under 2.5 rounds: +140

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Why Rafael Fiziev will win

• Last Fight: (W) – Ignaico Bahaomendes (DEC)
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 9 (8 KO/TKO/1 SUB)

Rafael Fiziev is the more polished, defensively sound striker, and that technical edge should carry him in what projects as mostly a stand-up fight. He keeps a high guard, throws tight combinations and punishing body kicks, and rarely gives opponents the kind of clean, extended exchanges Ruffy needs.

Ruffy thrives in chaos, swinging with explosive power and wide, creative entries, but that style leaves gaps that a counter-striker like Fiziev can exploit. Over three rounds, Fiziev’s superior shot selection, conditioning, and ability to manage range and tempo favor him edging the majority of moments, likely winning a measured decision while largely avoiding Ruffy’s single-shot knockout threats.

Why Mauricio Ruffy will win

• Last Fight: (L) Benoit Saint-Denis – SUB R2 
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 11 (11 KO/TKO)

Mauricio Ruffy brings the kind of volatility that can crack a technician like Fiziev, especially in a pure striking battle. His unorthodox entries, stance switches, and willingness to create chaos can disrupt Fiziev’s rhythm and force exchanges at angles where traditional Muay Thai defenses struggle.

Ruffy’s one-shot power is the ultimate equalizer here. With highlight-reel spinning kick knockouts and multiple first-round finishes on his résumé, he needs far fewer clean connections to change a fight than Fiziev does over 15 minutes.

We’ve also seen Fiziev touched and hurt in extended striking battles, and his defensive numbers show he is willing to rely on pocket exchanges and reflexes rather than risk-averse range management. Against someone who thrives when things get wild, those pocket exchanges become dangerous opportunities for counters and momentum swings.

Final Rafael Fiziev-Mauricio Ruffy prediction & pick

Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy profiles as a high-level, high-variance striking fight where both can do serious damage, but their paths to victory look different. On paper, Fiziev holds the edge in experience against elite lightweights and owns a proven five-round gas tank and layered Muay Thai game that can carry minutes, if not moments.

Ruffy, meanwhile, brings superior size, length and arguably the more fight-ending one-shot power, with a large share of his wins coming by knockout and many inside the first round. His 57 percent significant striking accuracy and willingness to sit down on counters mean any prolonged exchange carries real jeopardy for Fiziev, who has been touched and hurt in wild firefights before.

Over three rounds, the pick leans slightly toward Fiziev to survive those pockets of danger and win the minutes with tighter defense, better shot selection and more reliable cardio. Expect him to chip away with body kicks, punish Ruffy’s wide entries, and bank rounds even if there are a few scares along the way.

Final Rafael Fiziev-Mauricio Ruffy Prediction & Pick: Rafael Fiziev (+102), Over 2.5 Rounds (-180)

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