Phil Jackson’s ‘40-20’ rule for NBA title contenders has 3 members this season

Phil Jackson had a handy rule for determining the NBA’s real championship contenders well before the playoffs began. Jackson is credited as the creator ‘40-20 rule,’ which states a team has to hit 40 wins before 20 losses in the regular season to have a shot at the title. This rule has held up shockingly well throughout time, with 18 of the last 19 champions and 41 of the last 45 champions fitting into the criteria. Only the the 1995 Houston Rockets, 2004 Detroit Pistons, 2006 Miami Heat, and 2021 Milwaukee Bucks have won an NBA championship without winning 40 games before losing 20 games since the league introduced the three-point line for the 1979-1980 season.

With the Boston Celtics’ loss to the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night, there’s now only three teams that fit Jackson’s ‘40-20 rule’ for this season’s 2026 championship race:

• Oklahoma City Thunder (45-15)
• San Antonio Spurs (42-16)
• Detroit Pistons (43-14)

The Thunder have been widely considered the championship favorites since the start of the season if not a potential dynasty, so joining this club doesn’t mean much to OKC. It should feel more legitimizing for the Pistons and Spurs, two teams attempting a ‘worst-to-first’ arc this season as they’ve made stunning leaps into contention just a few years after landing the No. 1 overall NBA draft pick. No wonder almost 30 percent of the league is tanking this year, especially with an incredible draft class on deck.

The Pistons went 14-68 two years ago. What’s changed since then? Cade Cunningham started living up to the hype as a former No. 1 overall pick, Jalen Duren developed into an All-Star center, and head coach JB Bickerstaff (who replaced Monty Williams after the 14-win season) whipped the defense into the league’s No. 2 unit behind homegrown players like Isaiah Stewart, Ausar Thompson, and Ron Holland. Detroit made a big jump to 44 wins last year then had the Knicks sweating in a tough first-round series. Right now, the Pistons are on pace to win 61.5 games this season. It’s simply an incredible turnaround.

The Spurs were always destined to be a contender eventually with Victor Wembanyama, but no one thought it would happen this quickly. Wembanyama hasn’t even played a playoff game yet, but that won’t stop the Spurs from being a popular pick to win it all this year. Wembanyama’s defensive impact is levels beyond any other player alive, and he’s a top-10 offensive player, too. San Antonio put a solid supporting cast around him this year by trading for De’Aaron Fox, signing Luke Kornet in free agency, and rejuvenating Harrison Barnes’ career. The Spurs have proven it’s better to be lucky than good by moving up in the lottery three straight years for Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper. This organization lit two lottery picks on fire in the 2020s with Josh Primo and Jeremy Sochan, but it didn’t even matter because they landed the best prospect ever and then moved up into the top-4 of the lottery the next two years.

I’m not fully convinced the ‘40-20 rule’ holds this year. The Denver Nuggets were my preseason championship pick, and while injuries have crushed them during the regular season, they should still be a serious contender if they can get healthy by the playoffs. The Celtics will also have a good chance at the title this year, especially if Jayson Tatum returns from a torn Achilles. I wrote that there are nine teams in the title race this season a couple weeks ago, and I still stand by it. This championship picture is much wider than it historically has been due to the CBA bringing parity to the league.

The NBA’s problems — tanking, load management, a typically crappy All-Star Game — get all of the attention, but the playoffs might be the best product in all of sports right now. This last Super Bowl sucked! Meanwhile, last year’s Thunder-Pacers NBA Finals was amazing, and this year’s title race will be as wide open and competitive as it has ever been. The ‘40-20 rule’ hitting 41 out of 45 years is astounding. If the Pistons, Spurs, or Thunder win it all this year, please remember that Phil Jackson was right again.