Oregon vs. Texas Tech prediction, odds, pick for CFP quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl

Oregon dominated in the first round of the College Football Playoff, but it has a major test against Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with an Oregon-Texas Tech CFP quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl prediction and pick.

Oregon is 12-1 so far this campaign. They opened up 5-0, with a double-overtime win over Penn State. They would then lose to Indiana 30-20. Since then, Oregon has had just one close call. It was an 18-16 win over Iowa on the road. Beyond that, they have won every game by 10 or more points. The Ducks did not get to play in the Big Ten Championship, though, with Ohio State and Indiana both undefeated. Regardless, they were dominant in the first round of the playoffs, winning 51-34 over James Madison. Still, the second half should give cause for concern for the Ducks fans. They lost the second half 28-17.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech finished 12-1 on the year. They opened up 6-0 before a four-point loss to Arizona State. In that game, they were without Behren Morton, their stud quarterback, and the Sun Devils still had Sam Levitt in the offense. The team would rebound to win five straight to end the regular season, including a 22-point win over BYU. They had a rematch with BYU for the Big 12 Championship, and were dominant, winning 34-7.

These two teams have played against each other just three times in their histories, all with early-season match-ups. Oregon is 3-0 in those games, with the last being in 2023 in Lubbock, Texas, and Oregon winning 38-30. Oregon also won in 1992 and 1991, with the 1991 matchup being on the road.

College Football betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.

Oregon vs. Texas Tech Odds

Oregon: -2.5 (-108)

Texas Tech +2.5 (-112)

Over: 51.5 (-111)

Under: 51.5 (-108)

Oregon vs. Texas Tech Key Injuries

Oregon- RB Jordan Davison (Probable), WR Evan Stuart (Questionable), OL Bryce Boulton (Out), WR Dillon Gresham (Out), WR Kyler Kasper (Out)

Texas Tech- QB Behren Morton (Probable), WR Jerand Griffis (Questionable), RB Cam Morgan (Questionable), LB Tyrone Hampton (Out)

Oregon vs. Texas Tech Betting Trends

– Oregon is 8-5 against the spread this year, and 3-2 on the road this season. They have yet to play at a neutral site.

– Texas Tech is 12-1 against the spread this year, and 1-0 at a neutral site, while also being 4-1 on the road this year.

– When an underdog, Oregon,  has covered the only time they were an underdog this year, and won the game.

– When the favorite, Texas Tech, is 11-1 against the spread, and is 6-0 in its last six.

– The under has been the right side for Oregon  games in six of 13 matchups, but in just one of the last four.

– The over has hit in five of 13 games for Texas Tech. It has hit just once in the last four

Keys to Oregon vs. Texas Tech Matchup

Oregon is in a different situation, facing the Texas Tech defense instead of the one from James Masdion. Still, the game plan should be similar, as the weakest part of the Texas Tech defense is against the pass. Oregon has been great on offense this year, sitting ninth in the nation in points per game and eighth in yards per game. They are 13th in the run while sitting 41st in the pass.

While the running game has been better, the game will be placed on Dante Moore, who has led the Oregon offense. He has passed for 3,046 yards and 28 touchdowns. He has just eight interceptions this year as well. The Ducks quarterback has also done a great job of spreading the ball around. He has five receivers with over 25 receptions, and another five with over 300 yards. Regardless, he has shown vulnerability and did so against JMU. He threw for 313 yards with two touchdowns, plus scored on the ground as well. Still, he threw two picks.

The Ducks will be facing one of the top defensive units in the nation in this game. Texas Tech is second in the nation in opponent points per game and second in opponent yards per game. They are the best in the nation against the run and 21st against the pass. The defense is led by Lombardi Award winner Jacob Rodriguez. He got Heisman votes because of how good he has been, with 117 tackles, a sack, six pass breakups, four interceptions, seven forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. He has also scored on one of those fumble recoveries.

Based on the Oregon defense, Texas Tech needs to focus on the ground. The offense has been amazing this year, sitting third in points per game and ninth in yards per game. They are 12th in the pass and 24th in the run. Morton has been great this year with 2,643 yards and 22 touchdowns with just four interceptions. Still, the Ducks’ defense has been great against the pass. This will put a lot of pressure on Cameron Dickey. He has been solid this year on the ground, running for 1,095 yards and finding the end zone 14 times this season. He has also scored seven times in the last six games overall.

While Texas Tech has been solid on defense, Oregon has been great on defense this year as well. They are eighth in the nation in opponent points per game and fifth in opponent yards per game. They have been amazing against the pass, sitting third, but they are 22nd against the run. Bryce Boettcher will be the main player against the run. He leads the team with 113 tackles while having 4.5  tackles for a loss on the campaign.

Oregon vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Pick

The Red Raiders were the only team in the nation to allow less than 1,000 yards rushing and also let up under 900 yards. They also lead the nation with 2.5 takeaways per game and are second in the nation in turnover margin. Oregon gives up the ball .9 times per gsme, which is 18th in the nation, and they are 30th in turnover margin. Still, Texas Tech has been much better in the red zone. They are 44th on offense and 41st on defense. Oregon is 69th on offense in red zone scoring and 120th on defense. They are also not as good on third down. Oregon is 15th on third down conversions on offense and 38th on defense. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is seventh on offense and eighth on defense. It is in the margins that this game will be won, and all of those favor Texas Tech.

Final Oregon vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Pick:  Texas Tech +2.5 (-112) and Under 51.5 (-108) 

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