Nuggets vs. Bucks NBA Rivals Week 2026 prediction, odds, pick – 1/23/2026

The Denver Nuggets head to Fiserv Forum looking to extend a five-game road winning streak as they take on the Milwaukee Bucks in a Friday night matchup. Milwaukee enters as the home favorite, but the numbers, recent form, and matchup data point toward Denver emerging victorious, per DraftKings.

Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds

Denver Nuggets: +6.5 (-115)

Milwaukee Bucks: -6.5 (-105)

Over: 218.5 (-111)

Under: 218.5 (-111)

Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Key Injuries

Denver has several players listed as day-to-day, including Nikola Jokic, who is dealing with a left knee hyperextension. Christian Braun and Cameron Johnson are also listed day-to-day, though neither has materially altered Denver’s recent production. 

Milwaukee did not enter the matchup with any major new injury designations affecting its core rotation. Myles Turner is listed day-to-day while Taurean Prince and Kevin Porter Jr. are out for the time being.

Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Trends

Denver is 26-19 against the spread this season and a perfect 4-0 ATS when listed as an underdog of 6.5 points or more. The Nuggets are also 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 7-3 straight up over their past 10 contests. 

Milwaukee, meanwhile, is 19-24 ATS overall and just 3-7 ATS over its last 10 games. Head-to-head, Denver has won six of the last 10 meetings and has already beaten Milwaukee once this month.

Keys to Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Matchup

Denver’s offensive efficiency is the defining edge in this matchup. The Nuggets rank second in the league in points scored and first in both field-goal percentage and three-point shooting. Milwaukee’s defense sits in the middle of the league in most efficiency metrics and has struggled to contain elite shot-making teams. Milwaukee relies heavily on Giannis Antetokounmpo to generate offense, but Denver’s ability to score in all four quarters limits the Bucks’ margin for error. 

The Nuggets also hold a notable edge in shooting efficiency, particularly from beyond the arc, where Milwaukee ranks near the bottom of the league in opponent three-point percentage allowed. 

Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Prediction and Pick

Denver has consistently outperformed expectations as a road underdog, while Milwaukee has struggled to separate from teams at home. With Denver’s offensive profile and Milwaukee’s defensive inconsistencies, the Nuggets should be able to stay within the spread and push the total higher than the posted number.

Pick Against the Spread: Denver Nuggets +6.5

Over/Under Pick: Over 218.5

Final Score Prediction: Nuggets 119, Bucks 110

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