NBA mock draft: 2 recent champions rise in stunning lottery simulation

The 2026 NBA championship race is shaping up to be a thrilling, wide open chase between emergent young teams and established juggernauts, yet somehow it feels like the bottom of the league is getting more attention. The 2026 NBA Draft class is so strong that commissioner Adam Silver is in the process of rushing through lottery reform in an attempt to solve a purported tanking crisis. The fact that teams like the San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons quickly went from worst-to-first after landing the No. 1 pick in the draft in recent years makes the stakes even higher when the ping-pong balls bounce on May 10.

The NBA’s decision to flatten the lottery odds ahead of the 2019 draft has opened up the tank race to even more teams and resulted in some surprising winners in recent years. It happened again in our latest mock draft.

We simulated the lottery with one spin of Tankathon to get the first-round order, and there were some major surprises. Three teams moved up at least six spots in the order. Seven teams fell at least two spots from their starting lottery position. Imagine the chaos if this is how the draft actually breaks.

After the lottery results shook up the order, the picks in this mock draft were based on how I think things will actually go, not necessarily what I would do. Let’s hit on some key themes after the jump.

Yes, I’m shocked, too. Let’s dive into some of the biggest themes in this class.

The lottery will decide who goes No. 1, but it feels like A.J. Dybantsa has the edge

Kansas’ Darryn Peterson, Duke’s Cameron Boozer, and BYU’s A.J. Dybantsa have been battling for the No. 1 pick all season. I’ve been consistent in ranking Boozer at No. 1, but Duke’s unfathomable Elite Eight loss to UConn on Braylon Mullins’ 35-foot buzzer-beater puts a dent in Boozer’s greatest argument. I’ve heard (but can’t confirm) that this is the first time Boozer has failed to win the last game of the season since sixth grade! It took a miracle to beat Boozer while his starting center and starting point guard were both playing hurt, but I feel like he was only going to go No. 1 overall if Duke won the national championship, and that’s over now.

Dybantsa is the only member of the ’big three’ who didn’t win a game in March Madness this year, but he has a built in excuse with his best teammate, Richie Saunders, suffering a torn ACL just before the dance. Given Peterson’s bizarre cramping issues and the strange skepticism about Boozer’s top-end upside, I think Dybantsa is the safest bet to go No. 1. The Hawks winning our lottery sim makes it an even more natural fit.

I have a hard time believing Atlanta would take Boozer given that he’s positionally locked at the four, which is Jalen Johnson’s position. Peterson vs. Dybantsa would be a tremendous debate, but ultimately it’s easier to find guards than big wings with the scoring upside of the BYU freshman.

Dybantsa is an elite scoring prospect. He’s huge for a wing at 6’9 with a strong frame, but he’s also extremely flexible in how he attacks the paint. His long, coordinated strides are a thing of beauty to watch, and his mid-range game is going to be unstoppable in high-leverage situations like the playoffs. The players who are big enough to guard Dybantsa on an island usually aren’t fast enough to keep up with him. The players fast enough to guard him usually aren’t long or strong enough to match his tools.

Am I worried about his lack of defensive engagement? About his low-volume three-point shooting? About how he looks outside of a brilliant BYU system tailored to opening up the paint for attacks? Yes, yes, and yes. But he’s an awesome prospect regardless of whether I have him ranked No. 1 or No. 3. The Hawks would be super lucky to get him.

The Warriors and Bucks rise in the lottery for pure mayhem

The Warriors are 10th in the Western Conference standings as I write this. Jimmy Butler is out for the year with a torn ACL, and Steph Curry hasn’t played since January. Curry is reportedly nearing a return, and that means Golden State could absolutely win two play-in games to make the playoffs. If they fall short, though, there’s some chance they could move up in the lottery, which is exactly what happened in our simulation.

The Warriors jumping from No. 11 to No. 1 would be incredible, and it’s important to remember that’s what the Dallas Mavericks did last year to win the rights to Cooper Flagg. Suddenly Golden State would have a massive trade chip to look for veteran help around Curry, or it could just take the best player available — in this case, Caleb Wilson — to give them a new potential star once Steph retires.

The Bucks jumping up is just as seismic. Milwaukee will be cheering for Atlanta come lottery day, because the Hawks own the most favorable pick between the Pelicans and the Bucks. This essentially means that Milwaukee can choose as high as No. 2 overall in the draft if Atlanta lands at No. 1. The stakes would be massive given the lingering Giannis Antetokounmpo trade situation that figures to become a storyline again this offseason.

Boozer in Milwaukee and Caleb Wilson in Golden State would both be fascinating picks — and the clear best players available in our projection. Watch those Wilson highlights above and let me know who he reminds you of in the comments. I really think he has the best highlight reel of any prospect in this class, and there are days when I’m tempted to slide him all the way up to No. 2.

The Bucks won it all behind Giannis in 2021. The Warriors won the championship for the fourth time with Curry in 2022. Getting this type of luck in the 2026 lottery would give these teams a new lease on life around their historic superstars.

Yaxel Lendeborg at No. 6!?!?

Let me explain.

It’s no secret that I’m a big fan of Yaxel Lendeborg after ranking him as the second-best player in March Madness entering the tournament. Lendeborg now has his Michigan Wolverines int the Final Four after a dominant tournament run that saw him flex his elite two-way ability at every opportunity:

• 25 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists on 84 percent true shooting in the round of 32 against Saint Louis
• 23 points, 7 assists, 12 rebounds on 83 percent true shooting in the Sweet 16 against Alabama
• 27 points, 4 assists, 2 blocks, and 7 rebounds on 61 percent true shooting in the Elite Elight against Tennessee

He’s been the best player in the tournament by far, and no one else is close.

Of course, Lendeborg’s March Madness production and his hypothetical NBA translation are two different subjects. If you’ve been following the discourse around the tournament, you have probably seen opposing fans bemoan that the Michigan star is TwEnTy SeVeN years old or whatever age they decide to choose on that day.

Lendeborg is 23 years old, and he turns 24 before his rookie year in the NBA begins. Yes, this is his sixth season in college. He’s a month older than Josh Giddey, who is in his fifth NBA season. His age absolutely matters in projecting him the league — by the time he starts his second contract, he’ll already be 28.

Where the Michigan star goes in the draft all comes down to fit. In this projection, the Los Angeles Clippers get the Indiana Pacers pick from the Ivica Zubac trade because it slides out of the top four. After also landing Darius Garland at the deadline, are the Clippers really going to take Kingston Flemings or Darius Acuff or Mikel Brown? I don’t think so. Arizona guard Brayden Burries would make some sense, and Tennessee wing Nate Ament will also probably get consideration. I just like Lendeborg a lot more intriguing than both even if he’s super old for a rookie.

Lendeborg has a rare combination of size, skill, and two-way versatility. Listed at 6’9, 240 pounds, with a 7’4 wingspan, he has the length and weight of an NBA center. This season at Michigan has proven he can play off the ball next to other bigs while using his skill set to maximize everyone else on the floor. His shooting indictors are encouraging by making 37.2 percent of his threes on 8.2 attempts per 100 possessions with an 81 percent stroke from the free throw line. He’s a serious defensive playmaker with a 4.6 percent block rate and 2.1 percent steal rate and tons of chasedown blocks all over his super-super-senior season tape. He’s a willing passer and a capable driver, he doesn’t turn the ball over, and he hits the glass hard on both ends. What’s not to like?

Derrick White was 23 years old as a rookie and he turned out pretty well. Age matters, but it’s not everything. Yaxel is good enough to overcome it.

Which first-rounders will go back to college for big NIL deals?

The money in college basketball is so good right now that it’s only natural this draft will be thinned by a few returners who can’t pass up a big NIL offer. It happened last year with Labaron Philon and Lendeborg as likely first-round picks who returned to school, and guess what, both improved their stock big time this year.

Which possible first-rounders could return next season? We took four players out of our last mock draft just because there has been some speculation they could potentially return to college:

• Chris Cenac Jr., C, Houston: I’d really like the fit with incoming freshman five-star center Arafan Diane in the Cougars’ front court if Cenac decides to return for his sophomore year.
• Allen Graves, F, Santa Clara: I’d expect Graves to be one of the most sough-after players in the transfer portal if returns to college, and that probably means a multi-million dollar salary. Graves only played 57 percent of the available minutes this year and couldn’t help himself from fouling constantly despite incredible protection in a sixth-man role. I’d take him in the first if he enters, but spending a year at Kentucky or Arizona or North Carolina or Kansas sounds pretty cool, too.
• Tyler Tanner, G, Vanderbilt: What if North Carolina went after Mark Byington and Tyler Tanner this offseason? Hey, raiding Drake for its head coach and star point guard took Iowa to the Elite Eight this year. I’d likely consider Tanner a top-20 pick if he enters this draft, but if he goes back to school he might be the best player in college basketball next season. I’m still mad his half-court heave rimmed out in the round of 32.
• Ebuka Okorie, G, Stanford: Okorie went from the No. 119 recruit to a possible first-round pick during his freshman season at Stanford. This draft is deep with so many point guards that it may benefit Okorie to stick around an extra year and try to play himself into a lottery pick. He may cause an even bigger bidding war in the portal than Tanner and Graves do.

Who are the Final Four’s other NBA prospects?

It’s pretty incredible that there are eight projected first-round picks in this mock draft playing in the Final Four. That’s 26.6 percent of the entire first-round!

• Michigan (3): We went over Lendeborg already. Aday Mara — a 7’3 center who can protect the rim in drop coverage, crush the glass at both ends, and throw some fantastic outlet passes — should be a first-round pick lock despite his scoring touch concerns. Morez Johnson is another obvious first-round talent in my book as the draft’s most versatile defender, and maybe also its best. Trey McKenney will probably be an NBA player eventually, but not this year.
• Arizona (3): Brayden Burries is a likely lottery pick as a well-rounded shooting guard who fits somewhere in the Quentin Grimes-to-Derrick White spectrum (admittedly a super wide spectrum there). Koa Peat is probably (?) a first-rounder for his defense, play-finishing, and beefy playmaking, but his total lack of shooting makes him another player who could potentially return. Most outlets don’t have Motiejus Krivas as a first-rounder, but he’s so good protecting the paint, hitting the glass, and even making his free throws. He would be a huge second-round steal if he falls, and he’s another player who could potentially return to school.
• UConn (1): Braylon Mullins will go down in history for the shot that beat Duke. He battled a couple injuries as a freshman and never really popped until his Elite Eight moment, but I think he’ll be a solid pro as a volume three-point shooter off-the-ball who can also score in transition and add some point-of-attack defense. Tarris Reed has been UConn’s best player on this run, and could be an early second-round pick. Alex Karaban is another possible second-rounder this year.
• Illinois (1): Keaton Wagler feels like a lock for the top-10 as a 6’6 point guard with elite off-the-dribble shooting despite athleticism concerns. I really think there could be as many as six players on this Illini team who get at least a cup of coffee in the NBA. 7’1 twins Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic are stretch bigs whose size and shooting touch will draw some interest at the next level. I love David Mirkovic, a high-IQ, high-motor brawler on the glass who can handle the rock and shoot it off the dribble a little bit. Andrej Stojakovic — Peja’s kid! — doesn’t have his dad’s shooting, but he’s a good slasher and a fierce on-ball defender. Kylan Boswell is also a feisty defender who hits shots and moves the ball. Wagler is the only likely first-rounder, but the rest of these guys could play in the NBA eventually.

Do you like your team’s pick?

Wanted someone else? Let me know in the comments. It’s going to be an amazing Final Four. The draft lottery awaits on May 10.