NBA Draft lottery will play out like this if there’s any justice in the drawing

The lottery drawing for the 2026 NBA Draft was always going to have massive stakes. A.J. Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Cameron Boozer have been hyped as an elite trio at the top of the class going back to their high school days, and their presence caused a tank-off for the ages this season. Add in a breakout freshman year from North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson, and the draft now offers major prizes at all four spots drawn in the lottery.

The tanking was so bad this season that the NBA is ready to push through lottery reform starting next year. The bottom three teams will suddenly have worse odds than those in the 4-10 range, and the floor for the worst teams has fallen out of the top-10. The odds are going to be flattened so much throughout the order that the results will feel completely random. Bad teams better cash in now on this lottery, because the chances of landing a top pick are going to be greatly diminished in the near future.

At this point, anyone who follows the draft closely has already run hundreds of lottery simulations. But who actually deserves lottery luck? We’re here to answer that. This is all very subjective, but there are still right answers. Here’s how the lottery will play out if there’s any justice in the drawing.

14. Charlotte Hornets

Odds at top-4 pick: 2.4%

The Hornets feel like the East’s team of the future after closing the season with the best net-rating in the league after Jan. 1. Landing a power forward who can defend and space the floor or a bigger rim protecting center would be ideal with this pick. Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara would both be a great fit here, but if they’re both gone, I’d also like their teammate Morez Johnson Jr. in this spot.

13. Miami Heat

Odds at top-4 pick: 4.8%

The Heat never tank, and for that I was tempted to move them into the top-four. The odds are just extremely long for that to happen. If there’s a miracle coming Miami’s way, a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade feels more likely than a jump into the top-4.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder

Odds at top-4 pick: 7.1%

The Clippers failing to make the playoffs puts the Thunder in the lottery. OKC moving up is the nightmare scenario for the rest of the league, but it’s not likely to happen. OKC should be able to land a very good prospect even if it stays at No. 12, and I’ll just point out that Yaxel Lendeborg was already telling me about how he’d fit next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander during March Madness.

11. Golden State Warriors

Odds at top-4 pick: 9.4%

The Mavs moved up from No. 11 in the lottery to the No. 1 overall pick last year for Cooper Flagg. Could the Warriors get the same bit of luck? Golden State has a convincing case for deserving some good luck after getting screwed over by Jimmy Butler’s torn ACL. It would be wonderful to see Steph Curry play meaningful basketball again before he retires, and a top pick could help him get there whether Golden State trades it or keeps it. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Warriors move up, and I think it would be kind of cool. They just missed the cut-off for the top-4 picks in these rankings.

10. Milwaukee Bucks

Odds at top-4 pick: 13.9%

The Bucks owe a pick swap to Atlanta, who also has the rights to New Orleans’ pick, so Milwaukee can only land in the top-4 if the Hawks are ahead of them. The Bucks moving up might be the most explosive possible outcome for the lottery that doesn’t involve OKC landing a top pick. Taylor Jenkins is the new head coach here, and Giannis trade rumors are likely to be kicking into high gear again this summer. Landing a top pick might make Giannis more likely to stay. I could see it happening.

9. Dallas Mavericks

Odds at top-4 pick: 29%

The Mavs cashed in on a 1.8 percent chance to land Cooper Flagg last year. Do they really deserve more lottery luck after that? This pick will be extremely important for Dallas regardless of where it ends up because the team doesn’t control its first round pick until 2031 after this year due to a series of deals made to build around Luka Doncic. Whoops. Flagg needs a co-star in the worst way, but getting super lucky two years in a row would feel like a little much.

8. Memphis Grizzlies

Odds at top-4 pick: 37.2%

The Grizzlies tore down the roster because they thought they were stuck in the middle, but it certainly feels like they sold high on both Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. Memphis has a good young core already emerging led by Zach Edey and Cedric Coward, and I feel confident this front office will find more good players in this draft (they also own Phoenix’s pick at No. 16 this year) even if they don’t move up. The Grizzlies have put themselves in position to get lucky, and no one can hold it against them if they do.

7. Utah Jazz

Odds at top-4 pick: 45.2%

Utah was at the forefront of tanking shenanigans this year by resting their best players in the fourth quarter of close games. They were already fined for this, and their main goal was just to keep their pick inside of the top-8, otherwise they would have to send it to the Thunder (seriously). You can make a case that a lot of teams deserve lottery luck this year, but the Jazz aren’t one of them. The good news for Utah is that they should be a lot more competitive next year with a core of Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Keyonte George. They can land a premium talent in this range like Illinois’ Keaton Wagler or Arizona’s Brayden Burries even if they don’t move up.

6. Brooklyn Nets

Odds at top-4 pick: 52.1%

The Nets toed the line of gunning for a top pick without outright tanking the way Utah and Washington did. Brooklyn hasn’t gotten any lottery luck since moving off its Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden core from a few years ago, and next season they don’t own their first-round pick because Houston has swap rights. The Nets have a great young head coach in Jordi Fernandez, and they have a very good veteran wing in his prime in Michael Porter Jr. who enjoyed a career renaissance under Fernandez this year. You can’t be mad if the Nets land in the top-4.

5. Washington Wizards

Odds at top-4 pick: 52.1%

Congrats to the Wizards: they were the worst team in the NBA with 17 wins, and because of that they can’t fall further than fifth in this draft. That still isn’t exactly a cause for celebration though because to me it feels like there’s a big drop off in talent between pick No. 4 and pick No. 5. It felt like Washington tanked hard and rested players at every opportunity, but they were never fined for it. It almost feels like the Wizards know they aren’t getting lucky after trading for Anthony Davis and Trae Young mid-season to accelerate their timeline. Getting a top pick would completely change Washington’s two-timelines approach, especially with rumors that AD doesn’t want to be there. The Wizards fell to their pick floor last year when they landed at No. 6, and I could see it happening again.

4. Chicago Bulls

Odds at top-4 pick: 20.3%

The Bulls have the fourth-worst cumulative record in the NBA over the last nine seasons, but they haven’t landed a top-3 pick over that time, and the only time they moved up they got stuck with Patrick Williams. Chicago actually has a little bit of hope right now after firing Arturas Karnisovas and landing the Portland Trail Blazers’ pick at No. 15 overall (which finally conveyed from the 2021 Lauri Markkanen trade), but ultimately they’ll need some lottery luck to actually start to build something sustainable. The Bulls have refused to tank for years, and spent the entirety of the AK era pushing for a play-in tournament bid to try to backdoor into the playoffs. This roster is pretty bleak beyond Matas Buzelis, Josh Giddey, and the hope that last year’s lottery pick Noa Essengue can provide something in his second season. If the league really wants to punish tanking, the Bulls deserve to move up into the top-4.

3. Atlanta Hawks

Odds at top-4 pick: 43.2%

The Hawks made a brilliant trade during the 2025 draft to earn New Orleans’ unprotected first-round pick, and they can add it into their swap rights with the Bucks for a convincing chance at moving up. The Hawks have a nice foundation in place and just stole a couple games from the Knicks in the first-round of the playoffs, and moving up in the lottery would make this a fantastic season for the franchise. The Hawks still feel like they’re searching for a No. 1 option even after Jalen Johnson’s rise this year, and landing a player like Darryn Peterson or A.J. Dybantsa could set them up with success for a long time. Atlanta absolutely whiffed on its No. 1 overall pick in 2024 with Zaccharie Risacher, but that front office has been fired, and the team has made a lot of good moves since then. It would be fun to see the Hawks move up.

2. Indiana Pacers

Odds at top-4 pick: 52.1%

The Pacers gave the NBA a thrill on their underdog run to the 2025 NBA Finals. Indiana was on the doorstep of a championship when Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles in Game 7, and the result was a lost season this year in his absence. The Pacers have more at stake in this lottery than any other team after trading their top-4 protected first-round draft pick for Ivica Zubac at the trade deadline. If this pick lands at No. 5 or lower, it belongs to the Clippers. It’s easy to imagine a world where Pacers immediately become the class of the East again next season with a healthy Haliburton, a full season of Zubac, and a top-4 pick like Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer, or Wilson. I’d like to see them rewarded after putting together such an inspiring run before Haliburton’s injury.

1. Sacramento Kings

Odds at top-4 pick: 52.1%

Don’t lump the Kings in with all the other tankers this year. Sacramento badly wanted to win this season; they just failed spectacularly at doing so. A roster led by Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis, and Russell Westbrook was ill-conceived from the start, but not because the Kings were trying to lose on purpose. Sacramento has been very bad for a very long time, and it feels even more painful right now after watching Haliburton and De’Aaron Fox go on to enjoy success with other teams after they were drafted in Sacramento. The Kings haven’t had the No. 1 overall pick since 1989 when they drafted Pervis Ellison despite finishing in the lottery 19 of the last 20 years. I think Sacramento fans deserve a little luck at this point. I’m also just worried the gap between Sacramento and the rest of the West is going to get even more stark in the coming years with the new lottery odds. In a season where tanking brought the NBA great shame, the Kings put forth a real effort every night. Plenty of other teams tried to manipulate the odds to their favor. The Kings were just flat out bad.