March Madness: 3 teams who could pull off 2026 first-round upsets

The theme of March Madness is always upsets, and that will be no different this season. Despite a college basketball season that was dominated by the top teams and their excellence, chaos is always just around the corner when the best postseason tournament in sports gets underway.

While the dominance of the top 10 teams in the nation suggests that there may not be any Fairleigh Dickinson or St. Peter’s-type stories this March, there are still plenty of quality Cinderella candidates up and down the bracket.

So, who has the best chance of pulling off an early upset to get to the Round of 32? Here are three potential Cinderella candidates to watch out for.

VCU

VCU had a chance to get into the field as an at-large even if it didn’t win the Atlantic 10 Tournament, but the Rams took the decision out of the selection committee’s hands anyway and knocked off Dayton in the conference title game. VCU got slotted in as a No. 11 seed in the South region, where it will take on North Carolina.

North Carolina has shown very high highs this season, but the Tar Heels will be playing without star forward Caleb Wilson after the freshman phenom fractured his thumb in practice recently. Without Wilson, North Carolina is just 5-3 on the season compared to a stellar 19-5 mark when the future top-five pick is on the floor.

VCU is a top-40 team in 3-point shooting efficiency, and the Rams get to the free-throw line a ton. Against a UNC team that is thin in the front court, VCU can get Henri Veesaar in foul trouble and get the upper hand. VCU’s depth will give it a good chance to pull the upset here.

Akron

Akron prevailed from the MAC Tournament that included previously-unbeaten Miami (OH), allowing the Zips to get into the field as a No. 12 seed. Akron got drawn against Texas Tech, a very good team that is playing without star big man JT Toppin due to a torn ACL.

Taking on a hampered opponent is already a bit of a break for the Zips. The Red Raiders went just 3-3 without Toppin and come into the NCAA Tournament on a three-game losing streak. However, the matchup also will allow Akron to create some advantages in this matchup that Texas Tech will not be comfortable with.

Texas Tech is 265th in KenPom’s adjusted pace statistic, as Grant McCasland’s squad likes to play pretty slow and methodical offensively. Akron, on the other hand, likes to play fast and it makes a ton of shots. The Zips are 32nd in the nation in pace and top 20 in both two-point and 3-point efficiency. Without Toppin, Texas Tech is missing an interior force to throw the ball down to and slow the game down, so Akron can turn this into a track meet where it will feel at home.

South Florida

South Florida is one of the best mid-major conference champs in the nation, and the Bulls are coming into the NCAA Tournament on an 11-game win streak after dominating the American Conference for most of the season. USF is taking on a No. 6 seed in Louisville that is without star guard Mikel Brown Jr. and has been vulnerable against the better teams on its schedule all season.

Bryan Hodgson is a bit of a unique squad in the ways that it attacks. The Bulls are one of the fastest teams in the country, ranking 15th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. However, South Florida also dominates the interior, in large part thanks to star big man Izaiyah Nelson. Nelson averages 15.7 points and 9.6 rebounds per game and should have a big day against a vulnerable Louisville front court.

South Florida is also a top-10 team in the country in offensive rebound rate and a top-25 team at defending 2-point shots. While Louisville loves to take a ton of 3-pointers, if the Cardinals are having an off shooting day, they may not have another avenue to easy offense especially with Brown sidelined.

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