Houston basketball’s fatal flaw that will cost it in Big 12 conference title race

Throughout his 33 years as a Division I head coach, winning a national championship remains the only accomplishment Kelvin Sampson has not achieved. The 70-year-old believes he has his best chance to get over the hill in 2026, but Houston needs to win the Big 12 Tournament before he can even begin thinking about the college basketball national title.

Houston is coming off a Big 12 Tournament title in 2025, achieving the feat in its second year with the conference. The victory marked Sampson’s sixth Division I conference championship and his third with the Cougars in the last five years.

Houston also entered the 2025-2026 season having clinched a regular season conference title the last four years. With two regular season Big 12 championships in as many years, they have had no difficulty acclimating to the increased level of competition.

While Houston ran roughshod through the league to win its first Big 12 title, the competition is much stiffer in 2025-2026. As of Feb. 13, the conference has four top-10 teams leading the way and two others in the AP Top 25.

With just one loss in conference play, Houston is tied with top-ranked Arizona for the No. 1 seed in the Big 12. However, the Cougars’ final placement will be determined in the coming weeks, with matchups against No. 5 Iowa State, No. 9 Kansas and the Wildcats looming at the end of February.

A lot can change before March, but Houston seems to be in the best possible position to defend its Big 12 Tournament title and make a run for its first national championship in the 2026 postseason. They are one of the most well-rounded teams in the country, with just one blind spot that could hold them back.

Kelvin Sampson has everything he needs to win a title

Like all Kelvin Sampson teams, Houston prides itself on defense, where it has arguably been the best team in the country all season. The Cougars allow just 61.2 points per game, the fewest in the nation, leading to the seventh-best scoring margin, despite only putting up 78.3 points themselves.

Houston’s defense thrives on forcing opponents to play in the halfcourt and work deep into the shot clock. They allow just 51.5 shot attempts per game, the fifth-fewest in Division I.

All the factors lead to Houston’s 92.2 defensive rating on KenPom, which ranks sixth in the country.

Houston is always an elite defensive team, but Sampson’s 2025-2026 squad might be the best offensive unit of his career. The Cougars are still not a high-octane offense, but they have two dominant go-to scoring guards in Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp Jr.

After years of taking a by-committee approach, Flemings is the first player Sampson has had at Houston who can consistently score in isolation and give his team points in bunches. Sharp complements the freshman with elite sharpshooting and physicality on both ends.

Flemings and Sharp run the show offensively, while Chris Cenac Jr. and Joseph ‘JoJo’ Tugler anchor Houston’s defense in the paint. Cenac and Tugler combine to average 17.7 points, 13.1 rebounds, 2.3 steals and 2.0 blocks per game, leading to the Cougars allowing just 23.3 points in the paint per game, according to CBB Analytics.

This Houston squad is more well-rounded than college basketball fans are used to seeing, but it is still imperfect. The Cougars have size, but they still struggle against teams that can match their physicality in the paint.

Houston’s foul trouble is its Achilles heel

For years, Houston’s biggest flaw was simple. Sampson routinely built stingy defenses in South Texas, but his teams lacked enough offense to win six consecutive games against the best in the country to clinch a national title.

Houston’s offense is not flawless, but it is no longer the team’s Achilles heel.

Ironically, the Cougars’ downfall is the one feature Sampson built his career on. Houston’s frontcourt anchors the best defense in college basketball on its best day, while operating as a foul-line funnel on its worst.

Fouling has been a major issue for Houston all season. The Cougars commit 18.1 fouls per game, ranking 214th, which allows their opponents to attempt 20.1 free throws per game. For a team that finds itself in as many dogfights as Houston tends to, those calls rack up in close games.

In its first two losses of the season, Houston allowed 29 free throw attempts to Tennessee and 30 to Texas Tech. They attempted just 11 free throws against the Volunteers and 21 against the Red Raiders and lost both games by a combined seven points.

Houston is a team that will almost never get blown out, particularly with the additional offense Flemings brings to the 2025-2026 team. But in the grueling battle that is the Big 12 Tournament, which will consist of a half-dozen top-25 teams, the Cougars’ biggest flaw is bound to catch up with them in another close loss.

The post Houston basketball’s fatal flaw that will cost it in Big 12 conference title race appeared first on ClutchPoints.