Farid Basharat vs. Jean Matsumoto prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 113

UFC Vegas 113: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira continues on the main card with a bout between Farid Basharat and Jean Matsumoto in the bantamweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Basharat-Matsumoto prediction and pick.

Farid Basharat (14-0) stays perfect after back-to-back unanimous decisions over Chris Gutierrez and Victor Hugo, where he mixed clean boxing with well‑timed takedowns to control minutes. The technically sharp Afghan prospect relies on pace, defense, and grappling as he enters his fight this weekend against Jean Matsumoto.

Jean Matsumoto (17-1) enters this weekend, rebounding from a split-decision loss to Rob Font, with a gritty split nod over Miles Johns after earlier outworking Brad Katona across three rounds. The hyper‑active Brazilian volume puncher leans on pace and durability as he comes into his fight this weekend against Farid Basharat.

Here are the UFC Vegas 113 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 113 odds: Farid Basharat-Jean Matsumoto odds

Farid Basharat: -285

Jean Matsumoto: +230

Over 2.5 rounds: -410

Under 2.5 rounds: +290

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Why Farid Basharat will win

• Last Fight: (W) Chris Gutierrez – DEC
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 7 (1 KO/TKO/6 SUB)

Farid Basharat has the tools to slow Jean Matsumoto’s trademark chaos and win a layered, minute-winning fight. He’s the cleaner technician, with better defensive numbers, sharper shot selection, and a more complete wrestling and grappling game behind his striking.

Matsumoto’s volume is absurd, but he gives almost as much as he takes, absorbing over 5 significant strikes per minute while landing at just 41% accuracy. Basharat, by contrast, lands around 4 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy while absorbing far fewer, which projects better over three rounds in a fight likely decided on the cards.

A key layer is Basharat’s grappling: he’s consistently banked control time and shown he can ride top, pass, and threaten the back or front chokes when opponents overextend. Against a pressure-first striker like Matsumoto, those reactive shots and clinch entries can blunt forward momentum and steal rounds with top control.

Markets and models lean his way, reflecting confidence in the undefeated prospect’s ability to manage risk while still landing cleaner work. The prediction is Farid Basharat by decision, mixing measured striking with timely takedowns to outclass Matsumoto in a high-paced but controlled performance at UFC Vegas 113.

Why Jean Matsumoto will win

• Last Fight: (W) Miles Johns – DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 9 (3 KO/TKO/6 SUB)

Jean Matsumoto’s path is to turn this into a brawl at a pace Farid Basharat hasn’t consistently been forced to fight at in the UFC. Averaging over 5.4 significant strikes landed per minute, Matsumoto can flood the pocket with volume, kicks, and combinations that deny Basharat his preferred measured range.

Basharat is the cleaner technician, but he’s largely operated as a controlled, decision-heavy fighter who manages risk and picks his spots. If Matsumoto walks him down, forces prolonged exchanges, and makes this ugly in the small Apex cage, Farid will have to trade more often and show a chin we haven’t really seen tested over this sort of pace.

Jean’s willingness to mix in takedown attempts—even at low accuracy—can still keep Basharat honest, open his hands for uppercuts and hooks, and create scrambles where his aggression plays. If Basharat chooses to wrestle, Matsumoto’s scrambling and submission threats also give him chances to reverse or explode back to his feet and continue marching forward.​

As a sizable underdog, Matsumoto’s win condition is high-variance chaos, and he’s built perfectly for it. The upset script is Jean weaponizing pace, forcing Basharat into more exchanges than he wants, and swaying judges with relentless pressure and damage to take a wild decision at UFC Vegas 113.

Final Farid Basharat-Jean Matsumoto prediction & pick

Farid Basharat vs Jean Matsumoto profiles as one of the card’s highest-level, highest-pace matchups, but the lean remains with the unbeaten Basharat. He’s the more defensively sound, process-driven fighter, with sharper shot selection, better efficiency, and the ability to layer in wrestling when he needs to bank minutes.

Matsumoto’s relentless pressure and output are absolutely live to steal rounds, especially early if he can back Farid to the fence and force brawls. However, his tendency to get hit clean and his lower accuracy create a lot of opportunities for Basharat to land the more telling shots, particularly counters down the middle.

A key swing factor is the wrestling and clinch game: Basharat has consistently shown he can time level changes, ride top, and control positions when opponents overextend. If Jean’s pressure becomes too linear, Farid can change levels, slow the tempo, and turn wild exchanges into controlled grappling sequences that win optics with judges.

Markets and models broadly side with Basharat in what still projects as a competitive, high-paced 15 minutes. Farid Basharat gets the nod on the judges’ scorecards, edging the cleaner moments on the feet and sprinkling in timely takedowns to blunt Matsumoto’s volume at UFC Vegas 113.

Final Farid Basharat-Jean Matsumoto Prediction & Pick: Farid Basharat (-285), Over 2.5 Rounds (-410)

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