F1 championship odds 2025: Lando Norris still in pole position for maiden title

Just two weekends remain in this year’s Formula 1 World Championship and three drivers are still in with a chance of being this year’s champion.

The two McLaren drivers, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, and Max Verstappen are now separated by just 24 points – less than one race win – after the Papaya pair’s disqualification from the Las Vegas Grand Prix, which the Dutchman won. 

Norris and Piastri are vying for a first world title and have led the way since round 1 back in March. Verstappen has won the last four in a row, and has been on the charge since the summer break.

Here, we break down the current state of play and who we think will have their name engraved on the trophy in Abu Dhabi – where the final, potentially decisive, round will take place.

The latest F1 championship odds

• Lando Norris – 2/7 with bet365 
• Max Verstappen – 10/3 with Paddy Power
• Oscar Piastri – 18/1 with BetVictor

*Odds are correct as of 27th November and are subject to change.

With just two races to go, plus a sprint, the bookies believe Lando Norris has timed his title tilt to perfection. Prior to Vegas, the Brit enjoyed two dominant weekends in Mexico and Brazil, regaining the lead over his teammate and rival, Piastri, who has now gone six races without a podium and seven without a win.

Verstappen has climbed up into second-favourite with the bookies after McLaren’s costly blunder in Sin City. Their two cars came home slightly under the required skid wear thickness and thus had their points taken away.

Here’s what that dramatic twist has done to the standings ahead of the final two weekends of the season.

 The current F1 championship standings

Piastri is running out of time to find some form again. Norris not only won the race in Brazil but he also came home first in the sprint, as Piastri crashed out. In those two Grands Prix, he outscored his championship rival by 38 points, which saw him move almost a full race win ahead.

Verstappen is very much in play having gained a full 25 points on the McLarens last weekend. Even before that, he had scored more than anyone else – by a considerable margin – since the restart, shrinking what was a 104-point deficit at one point down to just 24. 

With 58 left to play for, however, it’s still a tall order. If Norris is able to extend his 24-point lead to 26 come the end of the Qatar Grand Prix, he will be the world champion and there will be no final showdown.

Due to how points in F1 are tallied, that may mean that all the Brit needs to do is finish ahead of both on Sunday – barring any wild incidents in the sprint, which may simplify or complicate the equation.

Key turning points in the 2025 F1 season

Aside from spurning vital points this past weekend, both McLaren drivers can point to several key moments in the season where momentum was gained or lost.

Both had a weekend to forget in Baku. Norris only brought home six points, but Piastri left the Azerbaijani capital with nothing after a first-lap crash. This began the Aussie’s current podium drought and he hasn’t looked his usual composed self since making that uncharacteristic error. 

The pair have won seven races apiece this season, but five of Piastri’s came in the first nine events. Norris won three out of four heading into the summer, including his home Grand Prix at Silverstone for the first time in his career. It felt like a significant shift in power, and Norris has looked and sounded even more ‘dialled in’ since.

The ninth race of the season – in Barcelona – was perhaps also where Verstappen’s four-year grip of the title loosened the most. The Dutchman was handed a 10-second penalty, dropping him from fifth to tenth, after he was deemed to have caused a collision with George Russell. Verstappen also DNF-ed in Austria, when the McLarens secured a one-two.

Predicting the final two races

Qatar

Unlike the bright lights of the Vegas Strip, the final two circuits are believed to suit the McLaren much more. Qatar’s Lusail International Circuit is a fairly recent addition to the calendar, having originally been designed for MotoGP – hence the numerous medium- and high-speed sweeping corners. These, plus the hotter temperatures would certainly favour the MCL39 on paper. 

Oscar Piastri has fond memories here, having won his first race in 2023’s sprint. It feels as though, if the Aussie is to have any chance of becoming world champion, he’ll need to repeat that this Saturday and back that up with a strong showing on Sunday.

Max Verstappen has won the previous twoSunday races here and the bookies fancy him to make it three-in-a-row and take his title defence to Abu Dhabi. The Dutchman has some serious momentum and has four years’ worth of experience when it comes to crucial season finales. He is probably the rightful favourite.

Back Max Verstappen to win the Qatar Grand Prix at 5/4 with Paddy Power

Abu Dhabi

Lando Norris won here last year, helping McLaren fend off Ferrari and win a first Constructors Championship since 1998. It’s also where Verstappen won the first of his four titles in controversial circumstances in 2021. It’s a track which features both long straights and sweeping bends as well as slower, tighter corners. Both McLaren and Red Bull have had plenty of success here in the past.

Betting markets for the final race aren’t yet available, but they will likely take into account the result from Qatar and whether the title race is still on. If either Verstappen or Piastri dominate in Doha and eat into Lando’s lead, the markets may sway in their direction for this race, and for the overall championship.

Our F1 championship prediction

It’s still hard to look past Lando Norris. He can clinch the title this weekend by simply outscoring the other two – even if it’s with just a handful of points. As we’ve just seen, however, F1 is brutal and anything can happen.

If he scores points in the sprint this Saturday, it could set him up perfectly for a truly life-changing Sunday.

Bet on Lando Norris to win his first Drivers Championship at 2/7 with bet365

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