Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder prediction, odds, pick for UFC 326

We’re back with another betting prediction and pick as UFC 326 draws to a close with this Co-Main Event highlighting the Middleweight (185) Division. Brazil’s No. 7-ranked Caio Borralho will take on Holland’s No. 8 Reinier de Ridder in what could be an instant classic. Check our UFC odds series for the Borralho-de Ridder prediction and pick.

Caio Borralho (17-2) has gone an impressive 7-1 inside the UFC since 2022. An OG talent of Dana White’s Contender Series, his seven-fight unbeaten streak was snapped his last time out against Nassourdine Imavov as he tries to bounce back against another rising contender. Borralho stands 6-foot-1 with a 75-inch reach.

Reinier de Ridder (21-3) is 4-1 inside the UFC since 2024. After landing on the scene with four-straight wins over the likes of Bo Nickal and Robert Whittaker, de Ridder is also looking to rebound after retiring in his last fight against Brendan Allen. He stands 6-foot-4 with a 78-inch reach.

UFC 326 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 326 Odds: Caio Borralho-Reinier de Ridder Odds

Caio Borralho: -278

Reinier de Ridder: +225

Over 2.5 rounds: -195

Under 2.5 rounds: +150

Stream UFC 326 live on Saturday, March 7, at 9PM ET on Paramount+. Subscribe now! 

Why Caio Borralho Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Nassourdine Imavov – U DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 4 SUB

While Borralho lost his last fight in a unanimous decision on the scorecards, the bout was extremely close as the first round could have been scored for either fighter. Borralho and Imamov actually landed the same amount of significant strikes (89), but it was Borralho’s five unsuccessful takedown attempts that could have swayed the optics in the fight. Either way, it has to be a win that Borralho wants to get back on his record, so expect an extremely focused and determined version of him on Saturday.

Borralho has really turned himself into a complete fighter with his striking, but we’ve seen him struggle in that realm against opponents who are taller or outreach him. Typically, it’s where he’s most effective in leaning on his jiu-jitsu, but he’ll be dealing with another Judo and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt, so expect a more cautious approach out of Borralho when going to the ground.

Borralho’s training with the Fighting Nerds will certainly aid him in this fight, but he’ll need to be perfect with his wrestling entries to ensure positive position if he’s able to bring de Ridder down. His takedown efforts will certainly need to improve as it spelled the difference for him last time out, so expect a refreshed game plan out of Borralho’s coaches as they try to solve the matchup.

Why Reinier de Ridder Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Brendan Allen – TKO (retirement, R4)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 14 SUB

Reinier de Ridder seemed to be on the fast track to a middleweight title shot following his impressive wins over top prospect Bo Nickal and former champion Robert Whittaker. However, he caught Brendan Allen on the wrong night as he was seriously damaged over four rounds of action. It was de Ridder’s first time in the fourth round and following five minutes of ground-and-pound from Allen, he was unable to get back to his stool after the horn. We’ll see if he’s much more disciplined in absorbing damage this time around.

Reinier de Ridder has the complete skill set to become champion one day as he’s reached the highest level of proficiency in several martial arts. He’s a very tall striker and uses his kicking game to both create distance and damage the body. His physical frame is an edge over most opponents and he’s lethal with elbows and knees when grabbing opponents in the Thai clinch.

However, de Ridder’s last fight proved that he’s still working to improve his cardio and he’ll need to do so if he plans to contend for the belt one day. This three-round environment should prove advantageous for de Ridder as he should be able to open up and push his typical pace.

Final Caio Borralho-Reinier de Ridder Prediction & Pick

This will be another fantastic fight as both sides are matched up perfectly. Both fighters are two of the better grapplers in this division and both are capable of finding the submission. However, given the respect, their abilities could cancel out as we may see a kickboxing fight on the feet.

We have to give a technical and physical advantage to de Ridder, but it’ll become clear that Borralho is much faster with his movement and slipping out of range. It’ll be interesting to see how Borralho handles the heavier shots from de Ridder, but Borralho could be sneaky in taking the back and turning this fight quickly.

For our final prediction, we’ll roll with Caio Borralho to get this win. De Ridder was dominated on the ground by Brendan Allen, but Borralho recently beat Allen in a grappling-only exhibition just last year. Expect Borralho to have a significant advantage on the ground as he controls en route to a decision or late submission win.

Final Caio Borralho-Reinier de Ridder Prediction & Pick: Caio Borralho (-278); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-195)

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