Broncos vs. Patriots prediction, odds, pick for AFC Championship Game

The AFC Championship Game at Empower Field will have the top-seeded Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots with a Super Bowl berth at stake. This happens only weeks after Denver earned home-field advantage the hard way. The Broncos powered their way to the AFC’s No. 1 seed behind a relentless defense and a season defined by narrow, hard-fought wins. They have positioned themselves as the conference’s most physically imposing team.

Now, however, the Broncos face their greatest test without franchise quarterback Bo Nix. He suffered a season-ending broken ankle in the Divisional Round. Veteran backup Jarrett Stidham steps into the spotlight. He is charged with managing the moment against a Patriots team that has been comfortable and dangerous away from home all season. It’s a collision shaped by pressure and legacy. This game has the thinnest of margins separating a trip to the Super Bowl from devastating disappointment.

Patriots vs. Broncos betting odds

Patriots: -5.5, -105
Broncos: +5.5, -115
Over: 42.5, -108
Under: 42.5, -108

(All odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Patriots vs. Broncos key injuries for AFC Championship

Patriots: CB Carlton Davis III (Head), RB Terrell Jennings (Concussion), WR Mack Hollins (Abdomen), DL Joshua Farmer (Hamstring), RB Antonio Gibson (Knee – ACL)

Broncos: RB JK Dobbins (Foot), QB Bo Nix (Ankle), OL Alex Forsyth (Ankle), WR Troy Franklin (Hamstring), WR Pat Bryant (Concussion)

Patriots vs. Broncos betting trends

The Patriots and Broncos have played each other 12 times from 2011 onwards. In total, the Patriots lead in those head-to-head matchups, 8-4. Denver, however, won their last two Conference Championship Games against New England — 20-18 in 2015 and 26-16 in 2013. Both those games were at Mile High. That said, the Patriots have averaged 8.2 more points per game in all their 12 head-to-head matchups. Entering the AFC Championship, the Patriots are the much hotter team, having won their last five games by an average of 17.8 points. As for the Broncos, they enter the AFC Championship with a three-game win streak. They will, however, not have Nix under center.

Several betting trends do indicate that this matchup will be extremely close:

The Broncos have scored last in each of their last 11 home games against AFC opponents.

The Patriots have won each of their last eight road games.

The underdogs have won the first quarter in each of the Broncos’ last five postseason games.

The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last five games.

2025 records:

New England, 16-3 straight up, 14-5 ATS; Denver, 15-3 straight up, 8-10 ATS

Over/Under
New England 12-7; Denver, 8-10

Keys to Patriots vs. Broncos matchup

Denver Broncos

Relentless pass rush:
Denver led the NFL with 68 sacks during the regular season. That pressure must again be the foundation. Nik Bonitto and the front seven will look to disrupt Drake Maye. The latter’s struggles under pressure were evident even in victory last week.

Stidham’s game management:
With Stidham under center, Denver must avoid forcing plays. High-percentage throws, contested catches to Courtland Sutton, and field-position discipline are the blueprint.

Altitude and atmosphere:
Empower Field remains one of the league’s toughest playoff venues. The thin air and crowd noise must wear down New England’s tempo and complicate communication for a young quarterback in a road championship setting.

New England Patriots

Protect Drake Maye:
Maye absorbed 47 sacks in the regular season. If New England can neutralize Denver’s blitz packages, his connection with Stefon Diggs could tilt the matchup.

Stop the run:
Whether it’s against JK Dobbins or RJ Harvey, the Patriots must shut down Denver’s ground game and force Stidham into obvious passing situations.

Special teams execution:
In a projected defensive battle, hidden yards matter. Clean coverage, reliable kicking, and situational awareness could decide the outcome.

Patriots vs. Broncos prediction and pick

On paper, New England holds the offensive edge. In reality, Denver’s postseason history at Mile High and its generational defense complicate everything. This game shapes up as a physical, low-scoring grind. One mistake or takeaway decides the Super Bowl participant.

Final score prediction: Broncos 21, Patriots 20
Spread: Broncos +5.5
Over/Under: Under 42.5

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