Blazers vs. Spurs 2026 NBA Playoffs Game 5 prediction, odds, pick

We’re back with another betting prediction and pick for the 2026 NBA Playoffs as the Portland Trail Blazers meet the San Antonio Spurs for Game 5 of their First Round series, San Antonio leading 3-1. Check our NBA Playoffs odds series for the Blazers-Spurs prediction and pick.

The San Antonio Spurs responded with a 114-93 win in Game 4 in Portland. Victor Wembanyama returned from injury (concussion) as the Spurs overcame a 17-point halftime deficit to win the game. Shifting back to San Antonio, the Spurs’ odds of advancing grow even higher as they’ll be focused on getting the job done early.

NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings

Blazers vs. Spurs Game 5 Odds

Portland Trail Blazers: +11.5 (-105)

San Antonio Spurs: -11.5 (-115)

Over: 215.5 (-105)

Under: 215.5 (-115)

Blazers vs. Spurs Key Injuries 

Portland: Damian Lillard (achilles – OUT)

San Antonio: NOT YET SUBMITTED (update to come)

Blazers vs. Spurs Betting Trends

• The San Antonio Spurs are 33-9 at home. The Portland Trail Blazers have gone 20-24 on the road.
• The Spurs are 53-15 as betting favorites. The Blazers are 16-34 as underdogs.
• The Spurs are 50-37 ATS overall, 24-18 ATS at home. The Blazers are 46-40-1 ATS overall, 21-22-1 ATS on the road.
• The Spurs are 7-3 outright, 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against the Blazers.
• The Blazers are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
• The Spurs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
• The total has gone UNDER in nine of Portland’s last 13 games.
• The Spurs are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
• The total has gone UNDER in six of the last seven games between the Blazers and Spurs.

Keys to Blazers vs. Spurs Matchup

Victor Wembanyama returned from a concussion sustained in Game 3 to help lead his Spurs to the 114-93 win at Portland, earning them a commanding 3-1 series lead heading back to San Antonio. Despite being down 17 points at halftime, the Spurs rallied on the defensive end of the floor in holding Portland to just 16 points in the third quarter and 19 points in the fourth. Wembanyama made an immediate impact in his return with seven blocks and served as their catalyst on the defensive end during the comeback effort.

Deni Avdija returned from an off-night in Game 3 with 26 points on 8-14 FG (8-9 FT) while veteran Jrue Holiday added 20 points of his own. Scoot Henderson, who scored 31 points in Game 2 and 21 points in Game 3, was held to no points in Game 4 during an 0-7 night (0-3 from three) that could have used his services. Jerami Grant was able to offset the total with 17 points, but the Blazers hit a serious offensive wall during the second half. They’ve led the turnover totals in each of their losses and although they’ve managed to lead for a percentage of the minutes, they can’t afford to turn the ball over and allow the Spurs high-percentage buckets in tranisition.

With Victor Wembanyama likely to make another start, his impact has been undeniable on the defensive end of the floor. Stephon Castle has proven an ability to lead the team in scoring with 33 points in Game 3, so expect another big outing for him after a slower showing in Game 4. De’Aaron Fox has been feasting on the defensive floor with four steals and two blocks throughout this series, so expect him to continue disrupting and pushing Avdija towards the boundaries here.

The Blazers will have to make things more competitive in the rebounding totals as they’ve trailed in that department through each game this series. Wembanyama returning only makes things more difficult for the Blazers and it makes them rely much more on the three-point shot, so expect Portland to remain consistent beyond the arc if they want any chance at the upset. Deni Avdija should be aggressive in chasing shots early as his production will be the main aspect driving their success on the road.

Blazers vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

With Victor Wembanyama returning to the lineup just in time for this series to head back to San Antonio, the Spurs see a golden chance to finish this series early and gain some rest before potentially facing either the Nuggets or Timberwolves. Wembanyama changes the entire dynamic of the Spurs’ defense and had one of his more dominant performance with seven blocks last time out, so expect his presence to be felt any time he’s out on the floor.

Much of the Blazers’ success will hinge on whether they can hit their shots early and how aggressive Deni Avdija decides to be in driving the paint and forcing the Spurs’ big men into foul trouble. Still, all the confidence and momentum is on San Antonio’s side and I don’t expect them to drop this opportunity to close a series at home.

For our final prediction, let’s roll with the San Antonio Spurs to cover while the total sneaks under and follows recent trends.

Final Blazers-Spurs Game 5 Prediction & Pick: San Antonio Spurs -11.5 (-115); UNDER 215.5 (-115)

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