Benfica vs Real Madrid predictions and betting tips – Madrid value despite Mourinho factor

After a slow start to their Champions League campaign, Benfica still have an outside chance of reaching the knockout stages. However, they have no margin for error.

Now under Jose Mourinho, the former Real Madrid boss faces the tricky task of beating his old side to keep his team’s hopes alive. For Real Madrid, a point will likely be enough to secure a top-eight finish. But Los Blancos will want to make sure by claiming all three points.

• Real Madrid to win – 7/10 with bet365
• Kylian Mbappe to score first – 9/4 with BetVictor
• Benfica to receive the most cards – 27/25 with SBK

Benfica vs Real Madrid odds

Find the latest Benfica vs Real Madrid betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

Benfica vs Real Madrid prediction

Benfica began their Champions League campaign with four straight defeats. 

Successive 2-0 wins over Ajax and Napoli on Matchdays 5 and 6 gave the Eagles hope of reaching the playoffs. However, their brief revival came to an end when they crashed to a 2-0 defeat away at Juventus last week.

The upshot is that Jose Mourinho’s team have six points and are 29th in the 36-group table, two points behind Olympiacos who sit in the 24th and final playoff spot.

A win over Real Madrid on Matchday 8 is required just to give Benfica a chance, and even that might not be enough, as Mourinho’s team will still be relying on results elsewhere to sneak into the knockouts.

Benfica can take heart from their domestic league form. They are unbeaten in the Portuguese Primeira Liga, having won five of their last six, including a 4-0 win over Estrela Amadora on Sunday.

Real Madrid have had their struggles of late. A recent blip in La Liga, coupled with a 3-2 defeat to Barcelona in the Super Cup final, signalled the end of Xabi Alonso’s brief reign as head coach at the Bernabeu.

Los Blancos wasted no time in promoting Alvaro Arbeloa from Real Madrid Castilla (B Team) to replace Alonso. However, things didn’t get off to a great start, as the Whites lost 3-2 to Albacete in the Copa del Rey in Arbeloa’s first official match in charge.

Results have since improved. Real have beaten both Levante and Villarreal 2-0 in La Liga since, and sandwiched between those two victories was a resounding 6-1 win over Monaco in the Champions League last Tuesday.

The win over the Ligue 1 outfit means Madrid are third in the Champions League table on 15 points. A draw should be enough to see Madrid clinch a place in the top eight. 

However, with ten teams within two points of Real, they won’t want to take any chances and will seek the win that avoids any possibility of being dragged into the playoffs. 

Benfica vs Real Madrid betting tips

Remarkably, these two teams haven’t met since 1965. That match was the second leg of a European Cup quarter-final, Real won 2-1, but lost the tie 6-3 on aggregate. Things are different now, with Benfica no longer operating at the very top table of European football alongside Real. Our Benfica vs Real Madrid match tips follow:

Benfica struggles point to away win

If anyone can mastermind a win over Real Madrid, surely it’s their former boss Jose Mourinho. 

Benfica have improved in recent weeks, but it’s worth noting that Mourinho has been in charge since Matchday 2, overseeing four of their five Champions League defeats.

On 45 points, Benfica are ten behind leaders Porto in the Primeira Liga. Mourinho’s team have won 13 and drawn six. That’s too many draws.

Put simply, Benfica’s domestic home form and their record in Europe show they aren’t good enough to live with Real Madrid.

Bet on Real Madrid to win at 7/10 with bet365

Mbappe can make early impact

Kylian Mbappe’s statistics are impossible to ignore. The Frenchman has 21 goals and four assists for Real Madrid in 20 La Liga appearances.

In the Champions League, he has 11 goals in just six matches. With a scoring record like that, we can forgive him for so far registering no assists in Europe this season.

Mbappe is 1/2 to score anytime, which looks an obvious pick given his form. However, with Real Madrid expected to win and Mbappe likely to be on the scoresheet, backing him to score first offers better value.

Back Kylian Mbappe to score first at 9/4 BetVictor

Mourinho factor points to Benfica cards

Jose Mourinho will know better than anyone what it takes to disrupt Real Madrid, or any game of football, for that matter. 

Mourinho is a master of the dark arts, and with his team in last-chance saloon, he will be required to delve deep into his memory bank to come up with some tactical solutions if he is to find a way to beat his former paymasters.

On top of the possible tactical fouls, Benfica is unlikely to see much of the ball, which could lead to bookings picked up through frustration. Especially if as expected, the hosts find themselves chasing the game.

Mourinho knows his team isn’t going to beat Madrid by taking the game to them. The gulf in class is too large. Expect his team to play on the edge, and it’s that approach that could easily see Benfica top the card count.

Back Benfica to receive the most cards at 27/25 with SBK

Benfica vs Real Madrid predicted lineups

• Benfica expected lineup: Trubin; Dedic, Dahl, Otamendi, Araujo; Aursnes, Sudakov, Barreiro; Schjelderup, Prestianni, Pavlidis.
• Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Huijsen, Carreras; Camavinga, Tchouameni, Bellingham; Mastantuono, Vinicius Jnr; Mbappe.

Where to watch Benfica vs Real Madrid

• Location: Estádio da Luz, Benfica, Portugal.
• Date and time: Wednesday 28th, January, 8pm.
• How to watch: discovery+

More Champions League match predictions

Check out our match preview centre for more Champions League tips and predictions from our European football betting experts.

About the author

Dean Etheridge

Dean Etheridge is an experienced freelance sports betting writer who specialises in football, cricket, and darts, with a keen focus on the Premier League and Champions League, as well as in-depth coverage of Premier League Darts and major tournaments. He can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game and beyond, delivering expert analysis across a range of sports. He predominantly covers the Premier League and Champions League but can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game. You can follow Dean on LinkedIn (@deanetheridge)

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