Ben Johnson, Kyle Shanahan will both put on a show in Bears-49ers SNF clash

One of the biggest games on the NFL Week 17 slate will come in prime time on Sunday night when the Chicago Bears take on the San Francisco 49ers in a battle of NFC contenders. Both the Niners and the Bears have already locked up a playoff spot, but there is still plenty to play for with two weeks to go in the regular season.

The Bears are just one win away from securing the NFC North crown and at least one playoff game at home in Chicago. There is a chance that Chicago can lock that up with a Packers loss on Saturday, especially now that Green Bay will be without Jordan Love. However, the Bears are still on the fringes of the race for the No. 1 seed, so there is a lot to play for.

On the other side, the 49ers still miraculously control their own destiny to get the No. 1 seed in the NFC. A win over the Bears and a Week 18 victory over the Seahawks would get that done for San Francisco despite a ton of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.

While the players on the field have been excellent for both of these teams this season to get them both to 11-4 coming into this game, the head coaches are the story. Ben Johnson and Kyle Shanahan are two of the brightest offensive minds in the sport, and both should be able to have their way with a pair of subpar defenses on Sunday. Here’s how both sides can attack.

All stats via Next Gen Stats.

When the 49ers have the ball

The 49ers have always had an efficient offense with Kyle Shanahan at the helm, and even did so with Mac Jones at the helm earlier in the season when Brock Purdy was sidelined with a toe injury. However, since Purdy and the rest of this San Francisco offense got healthy, the Niners have been clicking at a Super Bowl level.

Purdy is at the center of that, as the former seventh-round pick has quietly become a very good quarterback and is having his best season from an efficiency standpoint despite missing a large chunk of the season with the injury. However, the Iowa State product isn’t getting enough love for what he’s actually doing.

Purdy currently ranks fourth in the NFL in EPA per dropback among qualified passers (+0.18). The three players above him are Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye and Jordan Love. Not bad company to be in!

He is also second in completion percentage over expected, behind just Maye, and has been sacked just seven times in seven games despite facing 89 total pressures.

Shanahan still does a lot of heavy lifting for Purdy, but he is far more scheme-independent than the likes of Jones and Jimmy Garoppolo.

Unsurprisingly for a team with an elite play-caller, the 49ers primarily excel in two areas: third down and red zone. The Niners lead the NFL in EPA per dropback inside the 20 by a mile (+0.42) and also lead the league in the same statistic on third down (+0.28). Christian McCaffrey is a massive key to that, as the star running back has looked like his old self in 2025 and is a mismatch for anybody. Jauan Jennings is also a big-bodied receiver that Purdy has good chemistry with and is a matchup problem for many secondaries.

The Bears’ injury report will be something to watch here. Nickelback CJ Gardner-Johnson, cornerback Nahshon Wright and linebacker TJ Edwards are all questionable. Specifically if Edwards, who was limited at Friday’s practice, cannot go, McCaffrey could have a field day against this Chicago defense. San Francisco also may be missing George Kittle, who is dealing with an ankle injury and has not practiced leading up to this one.

Whether the Bears can stop third downs will also likely decide who comes out on top of the battle on this side of the ball. The 49ers’ run game isn’t quite as good as you would expect with Shanahan designing the offense and McCaffrey in the backfield (a lot of this comes down to average offensive line play), so Chicago should get some chances to get off the field.

Purdy is one of the best QBs in the league on third down, but the Bears all take things up a notch when they have a chance to get an offense back to the sidelines. Only the Seahawks have a better EPA per play allowed on third downs, and only the Patriots are better against the pass on those downs. A lot of that comes down to turnover luck, but the Bears have proven to be an opportunistic defense that can force turnovers against a quarterback like Purdy that will push the ball downfield.

When the Bears have the ball

While it’s all about the passing game for the 49ers, it’s all about the run game for Ben Johnson and the Bears. Johnson has long had a reputation as one of the best run game designers in football dating back to his time as the Lions’ offensive coordinator, and that has carried over to Chicago despite having an average running back room.

Chicago comes into this game with the fourth-best EPA per rush in football, behind three teams with elite running backs in the Colts, Bills and Ravens. The Bears don’t have that luxury and have still been able to run the ball effectively all season. Their 49% rushing success rate leads the league, more than a full percentage point ahead of the Rams in second place.

The 49ers are average in almost all stats against the run, but they play with a stacked box (eight or more defenders) on just 15.2% of opponent snaps, the third-lowest mark in the league. On the other hand, they play the fourth-highest percentage of light boxes (47.4%).

That tendency to play in light boxes is bad news against a Bears team that shreds those looks on the ground. Chicago’s +0.20 EPA per play leads the NFL against light boxes, just a tick above the Ravens. The Bears also have a staggering 56.1% rushing success rate against light boxes, with is just above the Rams in second but more than six percent above the Bills in third place.

Simply put, the Bears should be able to run the football easily against a 49ers defense that is feeling the effects of attrition due to injury. The Niners don’t have Fred Warner coming back, at least during the regular season, so they are vulnerable in this matchup.

When the run game has been rolling, that’s when Caleb Williams can use play-action and Johnson can get some players open with his scheme. With Chicago’s best separator, Rome Odunze, injured and not slated to play in this game, those gimme throws for Williams that he can get out of the run game will be important.

Williams has also become one of the best sack-avoiders in football, routinely pulling off Houdini acts to get outside the pocket and create positive plays with both his legs and his arm. Against a 49ers defense that already ranks last in the league in sacks by a mile with 18 and is 30th in pressure rate, it will be very hard for San Francisco to force negative plays and keep the Bears behind the sticks.

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