Bears’ Caleb Williams-Cole Kmet miracle TD vs. Rams had insanely low probability

The Chicago Bears thrived on late-game comebacks all season, and after arguably one of the greatest game-tying touchdown passes in Chicago’s history Sunday night against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round, another comeback seemed imminent before Los Angeles escaped with a 20-17 win in overtime.

Down 17-10 with just 18 seconds left, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams produced a moment that defied the odds, finding tight end Cole Kmet in the end zone on fourth-and-4 from the Rams’ 14-yard line to tie the game and force overtime.

Williams’ throw was extraordinary by the numbers. He retreated under heavy pressure, scrambling backward from the 40-yard line, and launched a pass that traveled 51.2 yards through the air to the back corner of the end zone, the longest completed pass by air distance in the red zone since 2016, with a completion probability of just 17.8%, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

Kmet managed to break free from his defender and secure the reception, completing another dramatic fourth-quarter comeback in a season that saw Chicago win seven games in the final minutes, the most by any NFL team since at least 1970.

The Bears initially won the toss but were forced to punt after a three-and-out. Williams kept the drive alive with a 3-yard quarterback scramble on fourth-and-1, but Los Angeles safety Kam Curl intercepted a pass intended for Chicago wide receiver DJ Moore at the Rams’ 22-yard line. Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford then moved the Rams into field-goal range, and Harrison Mevis, nicknamed the “Thiccer Kicker,” converted a 42-yard field goal to end the game.

Williams finished with 23 completions on 42 attempts for 257 yards, two touchdowns, and a career-high three interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 59.3. Meanwhile, Stafford completed 20 of 42 passes for 258 yards with a 67.4 passer rating.

Despite amassing 417 total yards, the Bears only managed 17 points, their third-lowest output this season. Chicago’s defense kept the NFL’s highest-scoring team largely in check for much of the game, allowing only two touchdowns after Los Angeles’s opening score and forcing three punts with just two first downs on consecutive drives.

Under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, the Bears clinched the NFC North title for the first time since 2018 with an 11-6 record.

The post Bears’ Caleb Williams-Cole Kmet miracle TD vs. Rams had insanely low probability appeared first on ClutchPoints.