Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid predictions and betting tips – Home team need a miracle

Atletico Madrid have one foot in the final of the Copa del Rey after a 4-0 thrashing of Barcelona in the first leg of this semi-final. 

Hansi Flick’s side need a big win on Tuesday to even stand a chance of turning this tie around. Can they do it, or will Atletico complete the job at the Camp Nou?

• Barcelona with a -1.5 Asian handicap – 23/20 with SBK
• Atletico Madrid under 0.5 goals in the first half – 8/11 with Tote
• Lamine Yamal to score any time – 10/11 with Betfred

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid odds

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid predictions

Barcelona extended their advantage at the top of the La Liga table at the weekend with a 4-1 victory over Villarreal.

Real Madrid have a game in hand on their arch-rivals at the time of writing, but the bookies currently have Barca down as the team to beat in the title race.

Either way, it is almost guaranteed that one of Spain’s big two will be crowned champions in May.

In the Copa del Rey, however, Spanish football’s traditional duopoly looks set to be disrupted. 

Real Madrid suffered a shock defeat by second-tier side Albacete earlier in the tournament, so their chances of silverware via the cup have been over for a few weeks.

Barcelona remain in the mix, but that is unlikely to be the case come 10pm on Tuesday. It would take a huge effort for Hansi Flick’s side to turn this semi-final tie around.

The first leg was one of those nights for Barcelona where everything that could have gone wrong did. 

An Eric Garcia own goal gave Atletico Madrid an early lead at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, before Antoine Griezmann doubled the home team’s advantage in the 14th minute.

Ademola Lookman made it three shortly after the half-hour mark, before a Julian Alvarez effort in stoppage time completed a truly miserable first half for Barcelona.

Flick’s team were unable to close the deficit in the second period. Worse still, they had the aforementioned Garcia sent off with five minutes of normal time remaining.

It was not all about Barcelona being poor, though. They were rampant in the opening 45 minutes, then managed the game well after the break. All things considered, it was one of the best performances of Diego Simeone’s long tenure as Atletico head coach.

“This game will stay in our memories, whatever happens in the tie,” Simeone said afterwards. “We’ll remember a performance like this. Our fans need games like this, big games, semi-finals.”

Will that really be the case, though? Few Atletico fans will talk about the first leg if the team somehow throws away their position of strength in this week’s return fixture.

From here, the pressure is all on Atletico. Can Barcelona do the unthinkable and turn this tie around?

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid betting tips

Can Barcelona turn things around in the second leg of this Copa del Rey semi-final?

Barcelona to win on night

In recent days, Barcelona supporters have been discussing that famous 6-1 comeback win against Paris Saint-Germain in 2017.

Another five-goal victory is required on Tuesday for Flick’s men to advance to the Copa del Rey final at the expense of Atletico Madrid.

Unfortunately for Barcelona, it is hard to see them doing the business this time. The Atletico of 2026 are made of sterner stuff than the PSG of nine years ago.

However, we do expect the Blaugrana to at least salvage some pride after that humbling in the first leg. A two-goal victory for the hosts is a bet worth considering. 

Go for Barcelona with a -1.5 Asian handicap at 23/20 with SBK

Atletico to prioritise defence

No prizes for guessing which team will have more possession at the Camp Nou.

Atletico Madrid have improved with the ball over the years, but in big matches like this they are more than happy to play on the back foot.

There is no need for Simeone’s side to chase the game, making it even more likely that they will sit deep and cede possession.

Atletico must still try to pose a threat on the counter-attack as the match wears on, but they will probably not have too many chances in the first half.

Choose Atletico Madrid to score under 0.5 goals in the first half at 8/11 with Tote

Yamal on target again?

Lamine Yamal was in spectacular form at the weekend, notching a hat-trick in that 4-1 defeat of Villarreal.

The forward has been around for a while now, so it is easy to forget that he is still only 18 years of age.

We have seen players with comparable talent at a similar point in their careers, but few have been as effective as Yamal at the highest level while still in their teens.

The Spain international is a truly remarkable footballer and we expect him to have a say against Atletico Madrid.

Yamal can build on his weekend treble by making the net bulge in the Copa del Rey for the third time this term.

Back Lamine Yamal to score any time at 10/11 with Betfred

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid predicted lineups

• Barcelona expected lineup: Garcia; Kounde, Cubarsi, Martin, Balde; Pedri, Olmo; Yamal, Lopez, Raphinha; Torres.
• Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Musso; Ruggeri, Hancko, Pubill, Molina; Simeone, Koke, Llorente, Lookman; Alvarez, Sorloth.

Where to watch Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid

• Location: Camp Nou, Barcelona, Spain.
• Date and time: Tuesday 3rd March, 8pm.
• How to watch: Premier Sports 1.

More La Liga predictions

We have plenty more La Liga predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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