WNBA Playoff Picks: Best Bets for Liberty-Dream and Aces-Valkyries

A pair of WNBA playoff Game 3s with the home teams fighting to stay alive is the main attraction in hoops Friday night.

Atlanta can eliminate the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces are trying to keep its season alive -- and find scoring punch to keep pace with Golden State.

Here's a look at the most intriguing bets in play.

Liberty vs. Dream, over 171.5 total points

It's a no hold's barred type of atmosphere with the Liberty clawing to force a Game 4. Expect effort and intensity to keep scoring down early, but points will come in the second half with the goal of finality -- delayed for the Liberty, achieved for the Dream -- coming into play.

Atlanta was No. 2 in the league in scoring and both teams averaged more 89.6 points per game in 2026.

Las Vegas Aces -3.5, -120

A’ja Wilson, again named the WNBA MVP, at home makes this one easier to support. She went for 36-10 and 38-16 in two home games in the previous series against the Fever. After a cold shooting night in Game 1 (8 of 21), Wilson made 9 of 16 shots and scored 21 points without missing a free throw in Game 2. For the Aces to avoid their first series sweep in the postseason since the 2020 WNBA Finals, Wilson needs more out of Jackie Young. She is shooting only 27.3 percent in the series.

Despite the low output and the Valkyries leading by 17 at one point in their Game 2 victory, the Aces rallied to take a 76-74 lead on a bucket by Wilson with 1:36 remaining but Las Vegas gave up a 3 that helped decide the two-point loss.

New York Liberty v Atlanta Dream

Dream +3.5, -115

The moneyline is a reasonable play at +126 if you want to ride with Atlanta. There's plenty of evidence this is the Dream's series to lose.

Even without the scoring punch Allisha Gray provides, New York hasn't given us much reason to believe there is much life left in the Liberty this postseason. The Dream hasn't lost to New York since June 11. Since that 104-90 victory, the Liberty have lost four consecutive games to Atlanta, including the final two games of the regular season.

The Liberty shot the ball well -- 54.7 percent from the field -- in Game 2 but lost the turnover battle. The Dream netted 28 points off 17 Liberty turnovers. Atlanta has outscored New York 60-24 in points off turnovers in this series.