The Seattle Seahawks were widely expected to dominate in Week 3, as they entered Washington on a massive winning streak and were up against a backup quarterback in Marcus Mariota. However, things did not go according to plan for Mike Macdonald and company as the Commanders pulled off a stunning 33-31 upset.

The Seahawks had chances to come back and win this game despite a weird day, but the Commanders continued to make plays to sneak out their first win of the season. While, on paper, this is a stunning and potentially panic-inducing result, the stats show there's no reason to worry about Seattle coming out of this game.

On a down-to-down basis, the Seahawks had plenty of success on both sides of the ball in this game. They finished with an 86th percentile offensive success rate and an 89th percentile defensive success rate in this game, per Shawn Syed of Sumer Sports. They are the first team to lose a game when finishing above the 85th percentile in success rate on both sides of the ball since 2022.

On the flip side of things, the Commanders had a lot of big plays on both sides of the ball but were far less successful on a play-by-play basis. That difference is shown in this graph, shared by football data scientist Sam Hoppen.

Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates for NFL games in Week 3: pic.twitter.com/wEJsytIogW

— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) September 28, 2026

A number of weird plays went against the Seahawks in this game. Jadarian Price fumbled on the Seattle 21-yard line, leading to a Commanders touchdown. Sam Darnold threw a ball off of a defensive lineman's face, leading to an interception and a Commanders touchdown. He threw a pick-six on a screen pass late in the game that sealed the Seahawks' fate. Seattle also had a turnover on downs at the one-yard line.

None of that is to say the Commanders aren't a deserving winner; they deserve plenty of credit for making big plays and playing opportunistic football. But for anyone looking for signs that the sky is falling in Seattle after this shocking result, this game isn't that either.