The Boston Red Sox technically need only two wins to erase their disastrous start to the AL Wild Card Series. After what happened Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium, however, asking the Red Sox to win consecutive elimination games looks like too much.

The biggest problem is not simply that the Red Sox lost Game 1. It is how they lost it. The Red Sox managed only three hits in a 9-0 defeat and struck out 11 times. Cam Schlittler overwhelmed the lineup, allowing two hits and one walk while striking out 10 across 6 1/3 scoreless innings. Boston never produced the sustained pressure necessary to make New York uncomfortable.

That performance was not an isolated offensive failure. The Red Sox scored only 71 runs in 24 September games, the fewest in MLB. An offense that struggled throughout the final month now has virtually no margin for another quiet night.

The Red Sox at least have Sonny Gray starting Game 2. The right-hander went 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA, giving the Red Sox a legitimate chance to keep their season alive. The problem is that Gray is opposed by southpaw Max Fried, who finished with a 2.80 ERA. If the Red Sox can survive Wednesday, flame-thrower Gerrit Cole is lined up for a potential Game 3.

That is an unforgiving path for a lineup that just vanished vs. Schlittler.

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Even more concerning, the Yankees did all of Tuesday's damage without Aaron Judge. New York left its captain off the Wild Card roster because of a right calf strain, yet Ben Rice still carried the offense. Rice went 4-for-5 with six RBIs, two home runs, and an eighth-inning grand slam as the Yankees turned a close game into a rout.

Boston's pitching kept the game manageable early, but that advantage disappeared once New York reached the bullpen. The Yankees scored five runs in the eighth, showing that Boston cannot expect its staff to hold New York down until the offense wakes up.

There is precedent for a comeback. The Yankees lost Game 1 to the Red Sox in last year's Wild Card Series before winning the next two. Still, history favors the team that strikes first. Since the current format began in 2022, Game 1 winners have advanced in 15 of 16 series.

The Red Sox have enough pitching to extend the series. Based on its offensive form, the remaining matchups, and what the Yankees showed without Judge, Boston simply does not have enough to win the series and advance to the ALDS.