ATLANTA -- Over the past month and change, the Dodgers have only had small samples to evaluate Shohei Ohtani's performance at the plate. But at this time of year, everything is magnified -- and what they've seen from Ohtani through the first two NL Division Series games has not inspired confidence.
Ohtani is hitting 2-for-8 (.250) with two strikeouts in the series against the Braves, which has shifted to Truist Park tied at a game apiece ahead of Tuesday's Game 3. The Dodgers were already unsure of what to expect from their superstar this postseason, given that he appeared in just eight games in September due to an IL stint to address lingering injuries to his right biceps and left knee.
With the Braves rolling out left-handed openers, Ohtani hit second in the order in each of the first two games of the NLDS. That is the highest he would hit with southpaw Chris Sale starting Game 3 for Atlanta on Tuesday, and manager Dave Roberts said that dropping him further could be a possibility.
"I'm open to it," Roberts said. "And it's something that if I do, I would obviously have the conversation with Shohei to explain why. And at the end of the day, every conversation I've had with him is whatever's best for the team, he's all in on."
Roberts said he sees a combination of factors impacting Ohtani's performance. He may in part be compensating for the injuries he has dealt with for the past several months. He also may be knocking off rust after only taking 36 plate appearances in the month before the postseason.
But the Dodgers still need to see Ohtani controlling what he can control at the plate: managing the strike zone and conducting a quality at-bat.
"Everything orbits around Shohei in the sense of his talent. And the Braves are going to enter with caution," Roberts said. "Knowing that, they're going to continue to expand as long as we keep giving that to them. So until we show some discipline, they're going to continue to kind of use that playbook."
Here's a look at some of the underlying numbers behind Ohtani's NLDS performance so far. All stats are through Sunday's action.
Ohtani has been more aggressive than usual. He has swung at the first pitch five times in eight opportunities (62.5%). In the regular season, he swung at the first pitch at a 36.7% clip, well above the league average mark of 30.3%.
As Roberts acknowledged, the Braves have pitched somewhat carefully even to this diminished version of Ohtani. He's seeing pitches in the strike zone only 38.2% of the time (13 of 34 pitches). Of the 82 players who have seen at least 25 pitches this postseason, only 11 have seen a lower rate of in-zone pitches than Ohtani.
But Ohtani is also chasing at a 42.9% clip (nine swings on 20 pitches out of the zone), up from 30% in the regular season. Of players who have seen at least 20 pitches out of the zone this postseason, only five have a higher chase rate: Mauricio Dubón, Bryson Stott, Spencer Jones, Michael Harris II and Bryce Harper.
Ohtani is capable of changing a game with one swing, although he has not homered since Aug. 18 (a 20-game drought, including NLDS Games 1 and 2) and also has only one RBI in that span. Roberts believes that Ohtani's elevated chase rate may be tied to him trying to find his power stroke.
"Hitting homers, slugging, it's part of his hallmark in the batter's box," Roberts said. "He's very in tune with what's being said, what he hasn't done. … Trying to chase slug [in Game 3] might not be the right plan, given the starter. But I do think that, yeah, there's something because he feels the responsibility to slug."
There could also be an external factor: Atlanta's staff is executing well against him. Ohtani has missed nine times on 20 swings (45% whiff rate), on a variety of pitch types and locations. Four of the six pitchers he's seen have been left-handed, and 22 of the 25 pitches he’s seen from lefties have either been sinkers or cutters.
In the regular season, Ohtani hit .391 and slugged .891 against sinkers and cutters from left-handers. Per Statcast's batting run value metric, few hitters were more successful than Ohtani in left-on-left matchups against those pitches. Only Kyle Schwarber, Corbin Carroll and Matt Olson were better.
Last year, the Dodgers saw Ohtani bust out of a postseason slump in a big way. In four NLDS games and the first three NLCS games, he hit .103 (3-for-29) with a triple and 14 strikeouts against five walks. But he snapped out of it with his masterpiece NLCS Game 4 performance, slugging three homers at the plate while striking out 10 across six scoreless innings on the mound.
Ohtani is limited to hitting only this postseason, and his physical condition may not allow him to break out as dramatically as he did last year. But Roberts believes that he is still capable of something big this year.
"I do think that's possible," Roberts said. "Absolutely."
MLB.com reporter Jared Greenspan contributed to this story.