UFC Vegas 124: Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker continues on the prelims with a heavyweight fight between Thomas Petersen and Gabriel Lorenco. Check out our UFC Vegas 124 odds series for our Lorenco-Petersen prediction and pick.
Thomas Petersen (11-5) steps into the Octagon after a first-round calf slicer loss to Valter Walker in July. Before that submission, he edged Guilherme Pat by majority decision, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Gabriel Lorenco.
Gabriel Lorenço (8-1) earned his UFC contract by knocking out Charlie Cleveland in the first round on Contender Series. That win extended his streak to eight, with four straight first-round finishes, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Thomas Petersen.
UFC Vegas 124 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC Vegas 124 Odds: Gabriel Lorenco-Thomas Petersen Odds
Gabriel Lorenco: +145
Thomas Petersen: -175
Over 1.5 rounds: -154
Under 1.5 rounds: +120
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Gabriel Lorenco Will Win
Gabriel Lorenco brings knockout power and momentum into a heavyweight fight where one shot can end it. His four straight first-round finishes show how quickly he can change a fight.
Thomas Petersen has been rocked in several fights, and heavyweight power exposes that vulnerability. Lorenco does not need to land often to create trouble.
The Brazilian is also fresh from Contender Series, where he looked raw but dangerous. That aggression can overwhelm a veteran who tends to fight cautiously.
If Petersen tries to wrestle, Lorenco's size and balance may keep him upright. The Brazilian can also use heavy hands to punish any lazy entry.
Lorenço should stay patient and take the first available opening. Expect him to land a clean power shot and finish early.
Why Thomas Petersen Will Win
Thomas Petersen has more UFC experience and a better understanding of heavyweight pacing. He has seen enough big shots to avoid gifting an easy knockout.
His defensive numbers suggest he is harder to hit than his losses imply. If he stays composed, Petersen can pick spots and avoid the wild exchange.
Lorenco looked sloppy on Contender Series, even if the result was a knockout. A veteran can punish that kind of technical looseness.
Petersen can use takedown threats to disrupt the Brazilian's rhythm. If he gets under the big shots, he can drag Lorenco into unfamiliar territory.
Article Continues BelowHis safest route is patience and control rather than trading. Expect Petersen to survive the early power and win a low-output decision.
Final Lorenco-Petersen Prediction & Pick
Gabriel Lorenco gets the pick because heavyweight fights often turn on a single power shot. His finishing streak is a major threat against a fighter with a history of getting rocked.
Thomas Petersen has the advantage in experience and in how he manages pace. If he avoids the first wave, he can make Lorenco work and potentially expose his inexperience.
Lorenco's raw approach means this will not be a safe pick. He could leave himself open to takedowns or tire if he overextends.
Still, the matchup rewards the heavier hitter, and Lorenco has proved he can end fights quickly. Expect him to land a decisive right hand before the end of round two.
Final Gabriel Lorenco-Thomas Petersen Prediction & Pick: Gabriel Lorenco (+145), UNDER 1.5 rounds (+120)