The Rockets are true Western Conference sleeper no team should want to face
In 2022-23, the Sacramento Kings became the darlings of the league, storming to the third-best record in the Western Conference, ending a dreaded playoff drought, and pushing the then-reigning champion Golden State Warriors to the brink in a cinematic seven-game series.
At the time, that seemed like the genesis of something beautiful. But alas, it turned out they didn’t know the good ol’ days already passed them by. That iteration of the Kings never got any further than Game 7 of the first round.
The current Houston Rockets are frighteningly analogous to that Kings team. In 2024-25, endeared themselves to fans by coming out of nowhere to finish with the second-best record in the West and pushing the Warriors to the brink. Unfortunately, they also made no forward progress in the following season – falling to the Los Angeles Lakers in embarrassing fashion.
History seems destined to repeat itself, with the Rockets’ window closing before anyone even realized it was open. But rest assured, there is plenty of reason to believe that this Rockets’ team can escape this unruly fate.
Houston was missing it’s two most important players
I spent most of the second half of the season fading the Rockets, even picking the Lakers to beat them despite being without their two best players. The reason for this pessimism was simple: they were a completely different team without Steven Adams.
Before Adams went down, the Rockets were 3rd in offensive rating, 7th in defensive rating, and fourth in net rating. But after his season-ending injury, the Rockets fell to 14th, 9th, and 11th in those categories.
Weirdly enough, Adams – who averaged 5.8 points per game – was most missed on the offensive side of the ball. The Rockets’ sorely lacked in creation and spacing, making it hard for them to generate strong looks in the halfcourt. However, Adams – the best offensive rebounder on the planet – helped create so many second chances (the Rockets were in the 100th percentile in offensive rebounding rate when he was on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass) that it didn’t matter that the Rockets weren’t maximizing their first shot attempt.
Adams wasn’t just the problem solver for their offense, he embodied the team’s identity: one predicated on toughness and physicality. Without him, Houston became like a horse with no name – wandering around the desert aimlessly. Losing him last year was a death knell, and now, he’s back, and (hopefully), healthy.
The Rockets were at such a dearth of offensive talent because they were hit with the devastating news that their starting floor general Fred VanVleet would be out the entire season after tearing his ACL last summer. VanVleet was their point guard in every sense of the word – organizing the pieces on the court, setting up teammates, and oscillating between playing on and off the ball. We saw this against the Warriors in 2025, when the Rockets were 28.1 points per 100 possessions worse offensively when VanVleet was on the bench (per PBP Stats). Kevin Durant may be the superior offensive player, but he’s always struggled whenever he’s tasked with doing too much heavylifting. He badly needed VanVleet’s assistance (both literally and figuratively) last year.
If you’re keeping tabs at home, the Rockets got a combined 32 games from the two players that help make this funky bunch make sense. Nothing is for certain in this league, but it’s highly likely that this number will increase in 2026-27. And that alone should be cause for optimism.
The Rockets are still very young
Unlike those Kings’ teams (who were filled with already established talent), this Rockets’ group still has room for some internal improvement. Five of their top six players in total minutes played last year (Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, and Tari Eason) will be 25 years or younger this season.
Thompson is the clear headliner of this group, especially after signing a monster extension this offseason. While the sky appeared to be falling in their meltdown against the Lakers, the Rockets were able to play Los Angeles to a draw during Thompson’s minutes, and they were 30.9 points per 100 better as a team when he was on the floor. It was the time that he spent off the floor that lost them the series. Having VanVleet and Adams back will nullify this effect.
VanVleet’s return will also allow Smith to slide into a more comfortable role. He’s the Platonic ideal for a modern day role player – long, athletic, can shoot it, and take an attack dribble or two in order to keep advantages alive – but without a true initiator out there, it is hard to showcase those skills. Ditto for Eason.
Sheppard was cursed with filling the void left by VanVleet last season. His efforts were noble, even turning himself into a fringe Sixth Man of the Year candidate. But he lacked the strength and guile to be anything more than a second unit spark plug (kind of like VanVleet early in his career). Again, having the veterans back will ease the burden on Sheppard, while also creating a healthier environment for these young bucks to shed their training wheels.
I know he is far from a spring chicken, but this also feels like the right time to mention Marcus Smart – the team’s marquee edition this offseason. Along with a built-in repertoire with head coach Ime Udoka, Smart possess a lot of the same qualities as VanVleet – a gritty guard with a proven track record of winning who isn’t afraid to let it fly from downtown and wields the steadiness and court vision to help command an NBA offense. At the very least, Smart makes for good VanVleet insurance, anything more than that will only further serve to enhance this team’s upside.
How good can the 2026-27 Rockets be?
On paper, the Rockets have a lot of what you need to be a great team in today’s game. They are deep (we haven’t even mentioned guys like Bogdan Bogdanovic, Bruce Thornton, Clint Capela, and Jae’Sean Tate), athletic, talented, physical, and have an identity that gives them a serious edge in the possession game (look what it did for the New York Knicks last year).
They failed to take a step forward last year, but that was with a team missing arguably its two most important players. Now, those guys are back, there is another sage among their ranks, and the rugrats have another year of experience under their belt.
Of course, this also means that Durant is another year older. Even with VanVleet back in the mix, shooting and ball handling are still serious question marks, and it isn’t usually good practice to have your team’s entire style of play be geared toward a 33-year-old who gets hurt as often as Adams does (he’s played over 60 games just once over the last six years). Also, did you notice there was no section dedicated to Sengun? He’s got some weaknesses (scoring efficiency, spacing, lateral quickness) that handicap this roster, and I’m less confident those limitations can be improved with age.
These concerns are why I’m not willing to put the Rockets in the same group as the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs – the two odds-on favorites to win the West. But remember, four teams make it to the second round for each conference. If you count the Spurs and Thunder as locks, that leaves the Rockets to battle with the Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Denver Nuggets for those final two spots.
Matchups will ultimately be the deciding factor, but this Rockets’ team certainly has a chance to beat any of those groups in a playoff series. If that happens, a serious weight will be lifted off their shoulders – allowing them to be loose and free. From there, the Rockets will be a team that no one wants to see – playing with nothing to lose, and everything to gain.