The Cleveland Guardians Could Be Baseball’s Cinderella This October

Major League Baseball (i.e. commissioner Rob Manfred) wanted to turn the postseason into something resembling the men’s basketball NCAA Tournament in the pre-NIL era and by gum, Major League Baseball (i.e. commissioner Rob Manfred) turned the postseason into something resembling the men’s basketball NCAA Tournament in the pre-NIL era.

The 12-team baseball postseason begins this afternoon and it’s easy to envision a quick exit for everyone in the field as well as a path to the championship for everyone except the Houston Astros. Sorry, but the first team to make the playoffs with a non-winning record is this tournament’s equivalent of the just-happy-to-be-here cannon fodder no. 16 seed.

There’s no real underdog in the playoffs — but the American League Central champion Cleveland Guardians qualify as a March Madness-esque Cinderella capable of exceeding their modest profile by making a stirring run to the title.

In sticking with the college basketball terminology, the Guardians aren’t the only mid-major in the field. Much to the chagrin of Manfred and the talking points he’s wielding heading into the never-ending lockout, this year’s playoffs are loaded with Davids trying to slay the Goliath-like Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees.

Four playoff teams finished the season ranked in the bottom 12 in the bigs in payroll per USA Today — including the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays (25th) and Milwaukee Brewers (19th).

But the Rays and Brewers are baseball’s Gonzagas, programs that perennially punch above their weight class. The Guardians, with the lowest payroll in the game as well as its longest championship drought, are much more similar to the mid-major power whose lack of resources are always exposed in the tournament.

This marks the ninth trip to the playoffs in the last 14 seasons for the Guardians, who have gotten beyond the Division Series just twice in that span. The 2016 team lost a classic seven-game World Series to the Chicago Cubs while the 2024 edition fell to the Yankees in a five-game ALCS.

But this feels like a year in which the Guardians’ formula — an outstanding pitching staff trying to compensate for a meager offense — could finally work in October.

The Guardians got the second AL bye, which allows them to align their rotation -- led by AL strikeout leader Gavin Williams and All-Star rookie Parker Messick -- for the best-of-five ALDS while the Astros or Chicago White Sox (the other bottom-12 payroll in the field) will already be well into piecemeal mode pitching-wise.

And while the Guardians are positioned to get to the ALCS with minimal wear and tear, the other side of the AL bracket is loaded with a trio of AL East giants beating up one another. The Yankees and Boston Red Sox, who had the second- and third-best records in the Junior Circuit, will battle in the other wild card series to determine who gets the Rays.

Cleveland’s 678 runs and .696 OPS are each the lowest amongst playoff teams while its 162 homers are second-fewest, ahead of only the Brewers. But the major league averages this season were 726 runs, a .719 OPS and 186 homers, so the gap between the Guardians and everyone else isn’t vast.

The Guardians are also heading into the postseason in the midst of an offensive resurgence. Cleveland posted a .721 OPS while averaging 4.5 runs per game following the All-Star Break, up from a .679 OPS and 4.0 runs per game beforehand.

The NL champion is likely to be the World Series favorite in a few weeks. But nobody is better positioned than Cleveland to be the Cinderella champion baseball needs heading into one of its most uncertain winters ever.