Red Sox vs. Yankees Game 2 Prediction: Best Bets for AL Wild Card

The Boston Red Sox are licking their wounds after getting roughed up by the New York Yankees in Game 1 of the American League Wild Card Series on Tuesday. At 8:00 p.m. ET on NBC, the Red Sox look to square the best-of-three series on Wednesday night.

It was an ugly performance on Tuesday, with Boston collecting just three hits. It will be quite happy if it doesn’t have to face RHP Cam Schlittler in the postseason ever again, as he twirled 6.1 scoreless innings with two hits, one walk and 10 strikeouts in the win. You might remember, Schlittler burst onto the scene in last season’s Wild Card series with Boston, allowing just five hits and no walks with 12 strikeouts across eight scoreless innings last season in a win.

The Red Sox head into Game 2 hoping that RHP Sonny Gray (18-5, 2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) can extend their season at least one more day, as Boston has its backs to the wall.

Gray posted a 10-3 record and 2.74 ERA across 88.2 IP over 15 road starts during the regular season, and he went 1-0 with a 0.98 ERA across 13.2 IP in two starts against the Yankees with 12 strikeouts.

For the Yankees, they’ll turn to LHP Max Fried (5-5, 2.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) looking to push the Red Sox out the door. The southpaw went 1-0 with a 0.77 ERA across 11.2 IP with a solo homer allowed with 13 strikeouts in two starts during the regular season.

Fried has an extensive history against the Red Sox, but the hitting stars for Boston might not be the usual suspects. Nate Eaton is 3 for 6 with a double and two walks against Fried, while Isiah Kiner-Falefa is 4 for 13 with two RBI. Nick Sogard has collected four hits in six at-bats with a solo homer, while Trevor Story has two home runs and five RBI in 22 at-bats. Connor Wong is 4 for 14 with a double and an RBI, too. Any of those guys are strong combo prop plays in the 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI category at various sportsbooks.

So, with a matchup of Gray against Fried, our best bet is to go UNDER 6.5 (+100) at even-money, even if that’s a rather low number. We also saw the Over cashed at a 4-0 clip in the four Game 1 matchups on Tuesday, so we’re going against the grain a little bit here.

The Red Sox went 26-17 against left-handed starting pitchers this season, so that bodes well as they look to keep their season alive. However, Boston was just 25-27 against the AL East, so that’s a bit of a concern.

Boston has not only dropped three in a row against New York since Aug. 29, but it has been outscored 34-3 by the Yankees in that skid. The Over has cashed in all three of those games, too. In Gray’s most recent start on June 28 against New York at Fenway Park, the Red Sox scratched out a 5-4 win.

In Fried’s most recent start against the Red Sox on Aug. 29, he recorded just 11 outs, even though New York went on to win 9-2 at The Stadium.

We’re going a bit against the grain on the total, and we’ll also back the RED SOX ML (+120) at plus-money to get the job done, forcing a Game 3 behind Gray.