The Red River Rivalry will write its next chapter on Saturday as Texas and Oklahoma are set to face. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with a Texas-Oklahoma prediction and pick.
Texas comes into the game sitting at 4-0 and the top-ranked team in the nation. They opened the season with a win over Texas State before hosting Ohio State in Week 2. In that game, it looked like Ohio State was going to run away with it. After Jeremiah Smith scored with ten seconds left in the first half, the Buckeyes took a 20-3 lead into the halftime break. They would add a field goal in the third quarter, leaving Texas down 20 points with just one quarter to play. That is when they took over. Arch Manning orchestrated a 91-yard drive, capping it with a touchdown pass to Ryan Wingo. Then, Hollywood Smothers scored twice, including once with just 25 seconds left to win the game 24-23. The next week, they took care of UTSA 30-6 before hitting the road to face Tennessee. The Volunteers hung around in the game, but the final outcome was never truly in doubt, as Texas won 20-17.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma is just 2-2 on the year. They opened the year with a 51-0 win over UTEP before falling to Michigan in Week 2. The offense struggled, going without a point in the first half. Then a John Mateer interception set up what would be the game-winning touchdown as Michigan won the game 17-10. Oklahoma's offense struggled again against New Mexico, but the team still came away with a 14-6 victory. In their last game, Oklahoma faced Georgia. For a third straight week, Oklahoma struggled on offense. They turned over the ball four times and did not score points until the second half, as Oklahoma lost 41-13. Both Texas and Oklahoma were off last week, and now come into the game against each other fresh.
Texas has won 65 of the 121 prior meetings between the two sides, while Oklahoma has 51 wins. There have also been five ties. Texas has won three of the last four times these two teams have met. In the last two seasons, Texas has dominated. In 2024, Texas won the game 34-3, while they won 23-6 in 2025.
Texas vs. Oklahoma State Odds
Texas: +7.5 (-110)
Oklahoma: -7.5 (-110)
Over: 39.5 (-110)
Under: 39.5 (-110)
Watch Texas-Oklahoma LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Texas vs.Oklahoma Key Injuries
Texas- RB Hollywood Smothers (Probable), TE Nick Townsend (Probable), OL Trevor Goosby (Questionable), WR Cam Coleman (Probable), DL Justus Terry (Questionable), DB Xavier Filsaime (Questionable)
Oklahoma- DT David Stone (Probable), WR Trell Harris (Out)
Texas vs. Oklahoma Betting Trends
– The Longhorns are 1-3 against the spread this year, including failing to cover in three straight.
– Texas is 0-1 against the spread in SEC play.
– The under has hit in three of four games this year for Texas.
– Oklahoma is also 1-3 against the spread.
– Oklahoma is 0-1 against the spread as the underdog.
– The under has hit in three of four games for the Sooners this year, but the over hit last time out against Georgia.
Article Continues BelowKeys to Texas vs. Oklahoma matchup
For Texas, it will start with establishing the run game against Oklahoma. That is something that Georgia did well against the Oklahoma defense, and it led to big plays both through the air and on the ground. The combination of Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown will lead the way. Smothers has run the ball 41 times so far this year for 198 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Brown has run the ball 48 times for 196 yards and four scores. Texas also needs to allow Arch Manning to run some. He has just 82 yards on the ground this year and has not scored. If the run game can be successful, Manning will be able to find Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman open. Wingo has 239 yards and two touchdowns, while Coleman has 208 yards and four scores this year.
On defense, it will all be about putting pressure on John Mateer. Texas is seventh in the nation in quarterback sack rate this year. That is led by Colin Simmons, who already has 7.5 sacks this season. Further, pressuring Mateer will lead to mistakes. He has faced pressure on 36.2 percent of his dropbacks so far this year, and has completed just 50 percent of his passes when under pressure. The quarterback has four interceptions this year, with three of them coming under pressure. If the defense can force some Mateer turnovers, the offense will turn the short field into points.
For Oklahoma, they need to simply things on offense. John Mateer has been solid when he has had time this year. Overall, he is 72 of 109 for 883 yards with eight touchdonws. He has been sacked either times, and has yet to scroe on the ground. Unlocking his ground game is something that needs to happen in this game. The running game also needs to get going. Lloyd Avant has run for just 164 yards and one touchdowns. The Sooners will also need some big plays from Isaiah Sategna III. He is their big play reciever on the outside, already having 267 yards and two scores. He is also a major threat in the return game and needs to make some big plays in this one.
On defense, Oklahoma needs to force turnovers. This year, Oklahoma has a negative 1.8 turnovers per game, which is 136th in the nation. If they give up short field to Texas, that will be a disaster. The best way to force turnovers is to get pressure on Arch Manning. Oklahoma is third in the nation in sack rate at 13.83 percent of drop backs. Oklahoma has multiple players who can get pressure on the quarterback. Adepoju Adebawore has 2.5 sacks and leads the team, while 12 other players have at least half a sack this year.
Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick
Neither team has done a good job at covring the spread this year, but the offense of Texas has been much better overall. Oklahoma is solid on defense. They are 16th in the nation in opponent pints per game and thrid in opponent yards per game. They have yet to face an offense at the level of Texas though. Texas is 31st in the naton in points per game this year, and have a Heisman candidate at quarterback. The Longhorns defensive line also will create havoc in this game. Colin Simmons has been difficult to stop this year, and even if they double him from the offensive line. Texas covers this one while the defense shut downs Oklahoma, keeping it lower scoring.
Final Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick: Texas -7.5 (-110) and Under 39.5 (-110)