Steelers vs. Patriots prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, betting trends, and stats

An intriguing AFC matchup in Week 2 as Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) travel to Foxborough to face Drake Maye and the New England Patriots (0-1). Each team will be looking to take a major step forward on the offensive side of the ball after laboring there in Week 1. Each was impressive, though, on defense. Pittsburgh opened the season with a 20-13 win over the Falcons. Linebacker Payton Wilson recorded 13 tackles, while Edge T.J. Watt registered two sacks and consistently was in the Atlanta backfield. disrupted Atlanta’s offense. The New England defense was also disruptive allowing just one touchdown and a couple field goals in the Pats’ 13-10 loss.

The top storyline is Maye’s ability to keep a clean sheet following a horrendous second half and specifically, fourth quarter against the Seahawks. Along those lines is the battle between T.J. Watt and New England’s offensive line. Watt is coming off a two-sack performance and faces a Patriots’ offense that struggled with consistency along the line in Week 1. Should they protect their quarterback and offer him ample time to throw, another storyline is Drake Maye vs. Pittsburgh’s secondary. Maye threw three interceptions in Week 1 and now faces a Steelers defense that thrives on creating confusion and turnovers.

Ultimately, this game has the look of a defensive battle. That is why the play is the UNDER on the Game Total. Details to support the play below.

Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two.

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Game details and how to watch Steelers vs. Patriots

  • Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
  • Time: 1PM ET
  • Site: Gillette Stadium
  • City: Foxborough, MA
  • TV/Streaming: CBS

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Latest Game Odds for Steelers vs. Patriots

The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers (+180), New England Patriots (-218)
  • Spread: Patriots -5.5
  • Total: 41.5

Money on the hometown Pats has shifted the number since it opened at New England -4.5. The Total has dropped a couple points since opening at 41.5.

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Expert picks & predictions for Steelers vs. Patriots

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s game between the Steelers and the Patriots:

  • Moneyline: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
  • Spread: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Patriots -5.5.
  • Total: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Total UNDER 41.5.

These offenses struggled in Week 1 to put up points. In addition, their head-to-head history is telling. In their last three games, the Steelers are 1-2 straight up and 1-2 ATS, with an over/under 1-2. The average final score is Steelers 17.7, Patriots 17.3 — a combined average of just 35 points per game. That’s well below the current line of 41.5, and it reflects a series that has consistently been low-scoring.

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Steelers vs. Patriots: Betting Trends and Stats

  • The Steelers are 1-0 against the spread this season
  • The Patriots are 0-0-1 against the spread this season
  • Pittsburgh is 0-1 to the OVER this season
  • New England is 0-1 to the OVER this season

Quarterback Matchup: Steelers vs. Patriots

  • Pittsburgh: Aaron Rodgers
    2026 Statistics: 1GP, 221 Passing Yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 83.4 Passer Rating
  • New England: Drake Maye
    2026 Statistics: 1GP, 178 Passing Yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs, 54.9 Passer Rating

Steelers vs. Patriots: Top Playmakers

Steelers

  • WR DK Metcalf
    2026 Statistics: 1GP, 4 Receptions on 10 Targets for 40 Yds, 0 TDs
  • RB Jaylen Warren
    2026 Statistics: 1GP, 10 carries for 46 Yds, 0 TDs
  • WR Michael Pittman Jr.
    2026 Statistics: 1GP, 3 Receptions on 3 Targets for 58 Yds, 0 TDs

Patriots

  • RB Rashad Stevenson
    2026 Statistics: 1GP, 18 carries for 51 Yds, 5 Receptions on 6 Targets for 44 Yds, 0 TDs
  • WR Mack Hollins
    2026 Statistics: 1GP, 4 Receptions on 5 Targets for 51 Yds, 0 TDs
  • TE Hunter Henry
    2026 Statistics: 1GP, 3 Receptions on 3 Targets for 26 Yds, 0 TDs

Steelers vs. Patriots: Injury Update

Steelers

  • CB Joey Porter Jr. (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game

Patriots

  • RB TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • C Ben Brown (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game

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