The Las Vegas Raiders were one of the surprises of the NFL through three weeks, as they raced out to a 3-0 record under new head coach Klint Kubiak. Since then however, the Silver and Black have come crashing back down to earth.
Sure, the schedule picked up for the Raiders. Las Vegas hosted the unbeaten Chiefs in Week 4 before getting blitzed by Drake Maye and the Patriots in Week 5 on the road to fall to 3-2.
Still, there are reasons for the Raiders to be optimistic. This offense under Kubiak looks more than functional and should provide a good ecosystem for No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza to grow whenever he enters the lineup. The defense, while young and somewhat undermanned against a lot of teams, has been feisty and created turnovers when it has really needed to.
Unfortunately for the Raiders, things are not getting any easier in Week 6. Las Vegas will welcome Josh Allen and the 4-1 Bills to town, fresh off of an epic win over the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football.
The Bills are looking like a Super Bowl contender so far this season and can get it done both on the ground and through the air. Josh Allen looks like an MVP candidate, and the Bills' running game is one of the league's best once again.
The Raiders have shown some positive signs on defense this year, as mentioned above, but slowing down this Bills offense is going to be a very tall task. Here's where Buffalo will look at attack on Sunday.
Bills' running game should run wild vs. Raiders
Josh Allen gets a lot of the attention for the Bills, and rightfully so. But this version of the Bills under Joe Brady starts with its running game. Both Allen and James Cook have become two of the most dynamic runners in football, and the numbers don't give the Raiders a great chance at slowing them down on Sunday.
The Bills have the most efficient rushing attack in football this season, averaging +0.18 EPA per rush per Next Gen Stats. That puts them ahead of the second-place Kansas City Chiefs by a solid margin, but they are more than twice as efficient as the third-place Indianapolis Colts. The Bills also have the highest rushing success rate (51%) in the NFL by a mile, more than two percentage points better than the Dallas Cowboys in second place.
At the moment, it's very difficult to poke any holes in this Bills running game. They rank in the top five in the league in yards both before and after contact, allowing them to operate with a high floor while also creating explosive plays after contact.
James Cook's fumbling issues have eaten away at his efficiency numbers so far this year, and they have even made Brady question his workload. But even with those negative plays, Cook still has the highest EPA per rush among running backs this season. His rushing success rate, 47.8%, also ranks fifth.
Allen doesn't get a ton of designed runs outside of QB sneaks, but he has the second-most scramble yards in the NFL this season behind only Jayden Daniels, per PFF. The Raiders haven't played many scrambling quarterbacks this season, but Drake Maye did gain 26 yards on three scrambles in Week 5. If you include Allen's scrambles this season, the Bills have gained 25.6 EPA on Allen's rushes this season, an astronomical number that is giving Buffalo nearly a touchdown a game so far.
On the other side, the Raiders have not been great stopping the run this season and really struggled against the one elite rushing attack that they played so far this year. Las Vegas is giving up 5.2 yards per carry this season, tied for the second-worst mark in football. The Raiders are also 30th in the league in yards after contact allowed, which makes tackling an area of concern in the front seven.
In Week 4 against the Chiefs, the only rushing attack that rivals the Bills' in terms of both efficiency and explosiveness this season, the Raiders gave up nearly 200 yards on over seven yards per carry. Kenneth Walker III had four runs of 10 or more yards and an astonishing 149 yards after contact, which points to a big day for Cook and this Buffalo running game in Week 6.
Josh Allen and the Bills' passing game should also have success
Allen has been a little bit up and down as a passer this season. He was excellent over the first few weeks of the season through the air, but it's been a little sporadic over the last couple of games. DJ Moore has been in and out of the lineup with a shoulder injury, and Allen has been struggling a bit to find a rhythm.
Allen is completing just under 66% of his passes this season with seven touchdowns and four interceptions. He is currently sitting at +0.30 EPA per dropback, the second-best mark in the league this season, but a lot of that work has been done as a scrambler.
But this Raiders secondary is ripe for Allen to have a big day. Las Vegas is managing a couple of young corners on the outside including Hezekiah Masses, who got off to a strong start during his rookie season but is now struggling a bit as midseason approaches.
In Week 5, Drake Maye absolutely had his way with the Raiders' secondary. He threw for four touchdowns and ran for one more in a 45-17 win, and his +0.76 EPA per dropback in that game is the third-highest mark by any quarterback in any game this season.
Allen was already able to pick on a Detroit Lions secondary that has struggled in a similar fashion this season. Moore is still not practicing coming into this game, so it might be another week of Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir, with a little bit of Keon Coleman.
Regardless, the numbers are all pointing towards Allen, Brady, Cook, and the rest of this Bills offense having another big day on the fast track in Las Vegas on Sunday.