The New England Patriots (4-3) head to Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday looking to strengthen their position in the AFC playoff race against a Miami Dolphins (1-5) team that earned its first win of the season last week.
The Patriots average 22.9 points per game compared with Miami’s 16.3. New England’s three-game winning streak ended in a 30-24 loss at Chicago last Thursday, despite Drake Maye completing 24 of 31 passes for 321 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for a score. The loss can be attributed to a costly interception from Maye in the red zone in the second quarter and New England compounded it with 10 penalties and a defense that missed 16 tackles.
Miami, meanwhile, is coming off its best afternoon of the season, a 28-25 road victory over the Jets on October 25 that gave coach Jeff Hafley his first win and kept the Dolphins from starting 0-6. Malik Willis was the catalyst, completing 14 of 21 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns to rookie Caleb Douglas, adding 37 rushing yards and another score, and converting a game-clinching fourth-and-1 in the final two minutes. Miami scored touchdowns on three of its first four possessions and led 21-7 at halftime before a late Jets comeback made things interesting. Ollie Gordon II rushed for 103 yards and a touchdown, while Douglas’ 63-yard fourth-quarter catch-and-run provided the winning points.
This rivalry has swung toward New England recently after several seasons in which Miami consistently gave the Patriots problems. The teams’ most recent meeting came January 4, 2026, when New England completed a season sweep with a dominant 38-10 victory at Gillette Stadium to finish the 2025 regular season 14-3. Rhamondre Stevenson was the centerpiece, rushing seven times for 131 yards and two touchdowns and catching another touchdown from Maye, while TreVeyon Henderson added two rushing scores; Maye finished 14 of 18 for 191 yards and a touchdown before exiting early in the fourth quarter. New England outgained Miami 457-180. That capped the Patriots’ first season sweep of Miami since 2016.
Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two in this AFC West tilt.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Patriots vs. Dolphins
- Date: Sunday, November 1, 2026
- Time: 4:25P
- Site: Hard Rock Stadium
- City: Miami Gardens, FL
- TV/Streaming: CBS
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Latest Game Odd: Patriots vs. Dolphins
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: New England Patriots (-325), Miami Dolphins (+260)
- Spread: Patriots -7.0
- Total: 43.6
After dipping below 7, the Spread is right back where it started. The Total though has been bet down a couple points from where it opened (45.5).
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Rotoworld Bet Best Bets
Expert Picks & Predictions: Patriots vs. Dolphins
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s game between the Patriots and the Dolphins:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Patriots -7.0.
- Total: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Total UNDER 43.5.
Here’s why the Total UNDER 43.5 is the best bet:
The strongest play on the board, and the market has been moving this direction all week. The total opened at 45.5 and has been bet down to 43.5 across the board — a full two points. Miami’s offense is the anchor. The Dolphins rank 30th in points scored (16.33 per game), 28th in total yards (321.83 per game), 29th in passing yards (190.33 per game), 32nd in completion percentage (57.62%), 32nd in pass attempts (25.17 per game), 32nd in receptions (14.5 per game), and 24th in touchdown percentage (3.25%). They’ve run just 56.33 plays per game (31st) — this is a team that cannot sustain drives. New England’s defense is built to keep it that way. The Patriots rank 9th in points allowed (20.43 per game), 13th in touchdown percentage allowed (3.64%), 8th in plays allowed (58.86 per game), 7th in carries allowed (24.29 per game), and 12th in passing touchdowns allowed (1.29 per game). They’ve allowed just 15 touchdowns all season (12th-fewest). The head-to-head history backs it: 6 of the last 10 meetings have gone Over, which is the one number working against this play — but the average combined score in that span is 43.2 points, right at this line.
Patriots vs. Dolphins: Betting Trends and Stats
- The Patriots are 3-3-1 against the spread this season
- The Dolphins are 3-3 against the spread this season
- New England is 4-3 to the OVER this season
- Miami is 3-3 to the OVER this season
Quarterback Matchup: Patriots vs. Dolphins
- Patriots: Drake Maye
2026 Statistics: 7GP, 1784 Passing Yards, 13 TDs, 8 INTs, 96.4 RTG, Sacked 13 times - Dolphins: Malik Willis
2026 Statistics: 6GP, 1057 Passing Yards, 4 TDs, 4 INTs, 77.1 RTG, Sacked 16 times
Patriots vs. Dolphins: Top Playmakers
Patriots
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson
2026 Statistics: 7GP, 77 carries for 285Yds, 2 TDs / 20 receptions on 24 targets for 204 Yds, 1 TD - WR Demario Douglas
2026 Statistics: 7GP, 23 receptions on 34 targets for 256 Yds, 3 TDs - TE Hunter Henry
2026 Statistics: 7GP, 26 receptions on 31 targets for 296 Yds, 2 TDs
Dolphins
- RB Ollie Gordon II
2026 Statistics: 6GP, 72 carries for 339 Yds, 4 TDs / 6 receptions on 8 targets for 14 Yds, 0 TDs - WR Malik Washington
2026 Statistics: 6GP, 26 receptions on 39 targets for 289 Yds, 0 TDs - TE Greg Dulcich
2026 Statistics: 6GP, 18 receptions on 22 targets for 213 Yds, 0 TDs
Patriots vs. Dolphins: Injury Update
Patriots
- WR A.J. Brown (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- RB Treveyon Henderson (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- RG Ben Brown (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- RT Morgan Moses (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DT Daquan Jones (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
Dolphins
- WR Malik Washington (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- WR Jared Wayne (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- TE Greg Dulcich (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- TE Will Kacmarek (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LG Kadyn Proctor (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DT Jordan Phillips (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- S Dante Traders Jr. (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- S Michael Taaffe (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB JuJu Brents (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Reese Taylor (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LS Tucker Addington (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
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