We may well see our first NFL division race all but decided Sunday at Highmark Stadium. That is overstating things a bit, but the Bills (3-0) can take a commanding three-game lead in the AFC East with a win over the visiting Patriots (1-2) this weekend. While there are a multitude of reasons for each side’s successes and failures, their quarterbacks illustrate their situations. Josh Allen is throwing spirals and is in sync with his coach as he makes his case for another MVP award while Drake Maye is simply spiraling and apparently in a tiff with his coach.
Buffalo’s most recent victory came in a 24-16 home win over the Chargers. The Bills won despite turning the ball over five times. Defensively, the Bills limited a talented Chargers offense to just 6 points after the first quarter and made key stops throughout the second half. The Bills are averaging 33.7 points per game. The Patriots were thoroughly outplayed in a 35-6 loss to the Jaguars last weekend. New England struggled offensively from the opening quarter and gave up 35 points over the last three quarters.
Bottom-line: New England owns a -5 turnover differential through three games. Maye and co. need to protect the ball and slow down a Buffalo pass rush that has been disruptive all year. Oh, and they need to find a way to slow down Allen and the Bills.
Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two.
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Game details and how to watch Patriots vs. Bills
- Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
- Time: 1PM ET
- Site: Highmark Stadium
- City: Orchard Park, NY
- TV/Streaming: CBS
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Latest Game Odds for Patriots vs. Bills
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: New England Patriots (+240), Buffalo Bills (-298)
- Spread: Bills -7
- Total: 48.5
Money has poured in on the Bills moving the line from -3 to -7. The Total has dropped a point which tracks for those who have lost faith in the Patriots’ offense but still believe in their defense.
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Expert picks & predictions for Patriots vs. Bills
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s game between the Patriots and the Bills:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
- Spread: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Bills -7.
- Total: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Total UNDER 48.5.
The single most important factor in this game is how good the Patriots’ defense has been. It’s a defense that doesn’t give up big plays, tackles well, and forces teams to grind out long drives. Against a Bills offense that has thrown the ball just 46.7% of the time this season — the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL — Buffalo is going to lean on the run, which shortens the game and limits possessions.
The Bills’ defensive profile is exactly the kind that suppresses scoring. It’s a defense that takes away the pass at an elite level. Against a Patriots’ offense that has turned the ball over seven times in three games — with Drake Maye as the NFL’s turnover leader — the Bills’ ball-hawking secondary is a nightmare matchup. Maye has averaged -0.67 EPA per play on play action passes this season (worst in the NFL) and -1.64 EPA per play against tight coverage (worst in the NFL) which is another indicator that points will be at a premium in this game.
Patriots vs. Bills: Betting Trends and Stats
- The Patriots are 1-1-1 against the spread this season
- The Bills are 3-0 against the spread this season
- New England is 0-3 to the OVER this season
- Buffalo is 2-1 to the OVER this season
Quarterback matchup: Patriots vs. Bills
- New England: Drake Maye
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 585 Passing Yards, 1 TD, 6 INTs, 58.6 RTG, Sacked 9 times - Buffalo: Josh Allen
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 786 Passing Yards, 5 TDs, 2 INTs, 104.1 RTG, Sacked 8 times
Patriots vs. Bills: Top Playmakers
Patriots
- RB Rashad Stevenson
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 31 carries for 116 Yds, 0 TDs / 9 receptions on 11 targets for 63 Yds, 0 TDs - WR Mack Hollins
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 12 receptions on 16 targets for 156 Yds, 0 TDs - TE Hunter Henry
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 7 receptions on 10 targets for 71 Yds, 0 TDs
Bills
- TE Dalton Kincaid
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 14 receptions on 17 targets for 263 Yds, 1 TD - RB James Cook
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 58 carries for 346 Yds, 2 TDs / 4 receptions on 9 targets for 16 Yds, 0 TDs - WR DJ Moore
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 11 receptions on 18 targets for 167 Yds, 1 TD
Patriots vs. Bills: Injury Update
Patriots
- FB Reggie Gilliam (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- TE Eli Raridon (thigh) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- RT Morgan Moses (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DT Christian Barmore (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Christian Elliss (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Dre’Mont Jones (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- S Craig Woodson (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
Bills
- WR DJ Moore (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- WR Keon Coleman (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DE T.J. Sanders (undisclosed) is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game
- NT Deone Walker (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Christian Benford (toe) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- S Damar Hamlin (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Joe Andreessen (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
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