The Green Bay Packers (1-2) head to Tampa on Sunday looking to get back to .500, while the Buccaneers (0-3) are still searching for their first win of the season. The primary storyline is the absence of Baker Mayfield (thumb). An underlying storyline is the mounting pressure on each of these head coaches – Todd Bowles and Matt LaFleur.
The Packers are coming off an utterly disappointing 35-14 loss to the Falcons on Thursday night. Green Bay jumped out to an early lead but struggled to contain Atlanta the rest of the way. The Buccaneers suffered their third straight defeat last week, falling 23-16 at home to the undefeated Vikings.
With Mayfield sidelined, a mammoth advantage goes to the Packers. Jordan Love has thrown for 844 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions through three games, continuing to be the focal point of Green Bay’s offense. His top target has been Christian Watson, who leads the team with 284 receiving yards and four touchdown catches. Jalon Daniels will get his first career start in place of the injured Mayfield. As a result, the Buccaneers will lean heavily on running back Bucky Irving and hope Mayfield can generate more explosive plays against a Packers defense that has allowed more than 30 points per game.
Additional storylines include: Green Bay is attempting to respond after its first 1-2 start since 2014 and is dealing with the loss of wide receiver Jayden Reed, who is reportedly out for the season with a neck injury. The Packers have also struggled to establish a running game, ranking near the bottom of the league on the ground. For Tampa Bay, the focus is simple: capitalize on the heat and humidity at home. With both teams entering the game desperate to alter the trajectory of their seasons, Sunday’s contest could prove pivotal for their playoff hopes before the calendar even reaches mid-October.
Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Packers vs. Buccaneers
- Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
- Time: 1PM ET
- Site: Raymond James Stadium
- City: Tampa, FL
- TV/Streaming: FOX
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Latest Game Odds: Packers vs. Buccaneers
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Green Bay Packers (-185), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+154)
- Spread: Packers -3.5
- Total: 39.5
The Total has plummeted from its 47.5 Opening Number and the Baker Mayfield injury is more than likely the reason the Spread has moved from -1.5 to -3.5.
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Expert picks & predictions for Packers vs. Buccaneers
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s game between the Packers and the Buccaneers:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Packers on the Moneyline
- Spread: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Packers -3.5.
- Total: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Total UNDER 39.5.
The most compelling angle for the Under is the combination of a rookie quarterback debut and a Packers offense that can’t run the ball. Tampa Bay’s defense has actually been solid in 2026 — 6th in EPA/Play and 8th in yards per play allowed — and they’re still stopping the run, ranking 2nd in carries allowed (23.29 per game) and 5th in rushing yards allowed (99.06 per game) last season.
That’s the key to the Under. Green Bay can’t run the ball, so they’ll be one-dimensional against a defense that’s been good against the pass. Tampa Bay can’t throw the ball with a rookie under center, so they’ll lean on Bucky Irving and a ball-control approach. Both teams are going to shorten the game and limit possessions, which is exactly how you keep a total under 39.5.
Packers vs. Buccaneers: Betting Trends and Stats
- The Packers are 0-3 against the spread this season
- The Buccaneers are 0-3 against the spread this season
- Green Bay is 2-1 to the OVER this season
- Tampa Bay is 2-1 to the OVER this season
Quarterback matchup: Packers vs. Buccaneers
- Green Bay: Jordan Love
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 844 Passing Yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs, 83.5 RTG, Sacked 8 times - Tampa Bay: Jalon Daniels
2026 Statistics: 1GP, 0 Passing Yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 0.0 RTG, Sacked 0 times
Packers vs. Buccaneers: Top Playmakers
Packers
- RB Marshawn Lloyd
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 23 carries for 68 Yds, 0 TDs / 4 receptions on 6 targets for 13 Yds, 1 TD - WR Jaylen Waddle
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 11 receptions on 20 targets for 150 Yds, 0 TDs / 1 carry for 14 Yds, 0 TDs - WR Pat Bryant
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 6 receptions on 9 targets for 86 Yds, 1 TDs / 1 carry for 16 Yds, 0 TDs
Buccaneers
- WR Emeka Egbuka
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 13 receptions on 20 targets for 141 Yds, 1 TD - RB Bucky Irving
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 40 carries for 180 Yds, 1 TD / 13 receptions on 15 targets for 61 Yds, 0 TDs - TE Cade Otton
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 11 receptions on 17 targets for 120 Yds, 0 TDs
Packers vs. Buccaneers: Injury Update
Packers
- LB Dondrea Tillman (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LG Aaron Banks (toe/knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- C Jager Burton (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- OL Jacob Monk (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DE Karl Brooks (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Lucas Van Ness (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Edgerrin Cooper (concussion/shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DE Warren Brinson (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DT Anthony Campbell (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DE Micah Parsons (knee) has been declared OUT of Sunday’s game
- WR Jayden Reed (neck) has been placed on IR and is OUT for Sunday’s game
Buccaneers
- QB Baker Mayfield (thumb) is listed as OUT for Sunday’s game
- RB Bucky Irving (glute) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- TE Ko Kieft (elbow) is listed as OUT for Sunday’s game
- LB Rueben Bain Jr. (undisclosed) is listed as OUT for Sunday’s game
- LB Yaya Diaby (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Sirvocea Dennis (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Keionte Scott (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Benjamin Morrison (undisclosed) is listed as OUT for Sunday’s game
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