Week 9 in the NFL is a bit of a sleepy slate, but the afternoon window on Sunday presents one titanic battle between two playoff contenders. Two of the most storied franchises in the NFL will do battle when the Green Bay Packers travel to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots.
Both teams come into this game at 5-3, but both are behind in their respective division races. That makes this game crucial both for wild card positioning as well as the races in the NFC North and AFC East.
Interestingly, both the Packers and the Patriots have had similar arcs so far this season. Both teams looked down and out after starting 1-2, and both had massive issues on the offensive side of the ball they had to fix. Drake Maye was turning the ball over at will for the Pats, and the Packers had massive offensive line woes to fix.
Since then, both teams are 4-1 and are starting to look more and more like the squads that many pegged as playoff teams before the season. Both still have some flaws, but the explosiveness of both teams should make this an entertaining, back-and-forth contest on Sunday.
Most things with the Packers start with their lack of a running game, and this game should be no different. How else can Green Bay attack, and what is it up against on the other side?
Don't expect the Packers' run game to be revived this week
Not only do the Packers have the worst running game in the NFL, but they have one of the worst running games in the league in recent memory. The numbers almost seem fake: last in yards per rush (2.9), last in EPA per rush (-0.26), last in success rate (30.6%), and 30th in stuff rate (20.6%) per Next Gen Stats. They also rank 30th in both yards before and after contact, so everyone shares the blame for the issues on the ground.
The Green Bay offensive line, which has weathered a number of injuries and gotten back to at least a competent level in the passing game, has remained a dismal mess on the ground. They don't get push off the ball and don't climb to the second level effectively, allowing second- and third-level defenders to come unscathed and make plays near the line of scrimmage.
The backs haven't helped matters, though getting Josh Jacobs back should help in that department. MarShawn Lloyd, who was getting a lot of the work for the Packers before Jacobs returned from the Commissioner's Exempt List, has forced just 11 missed tackles on 57 attempts according to PFF, which just isn't going to cut it (Jahmyr Gibbs leads the league with 51).
Jacobs being back will make things a little bit better. He is a more physical runner and a better receiver than Lloyd or Pierre Strong Jr., but he still has only forced two missed tackles on 32 attempts in his first two games. While he may not give Green Bay more explosiveness than it already had, the Packers posted their two lowest stuff rates of the season in the two games that he played. That isn't a coincidence.
Things are unlikely to get any better on Sunday against a Patriots defense that ranks in the top 10 in both EPA per rush allowed and yards per rush allowed, per Next Gen Stats. Mike Vrabel and company boast one of the best interior duos in football in Christian Barmore and Milton Williams, and the numbers bear that out. The Pats allow the second fewest yards before contact (0.57) in the NFL, as they dominate the line of scrimmage with those two guys and get ballcarriers on the ground quickly.
Can Jordan Love play Houdini on obvious passing downs again?
If the Packers are once again unable to run the ball in this game, that puts Jordan Love in a position where he is going to have to play Superman for this Packers offense once again. Considering the situation around him, Love is quietly having one of the best seasons of any quarterback in the NFL. He leads the league in passing yards with 2,246 and is fourth in passing touchdowns with 16.
As he usually does, Love is chucking the ball all over the yard and hunting explosive plays for this Green Bay offense. His 9.5 air yards per attempt is the third-highest in the NFL per Next Gen Stats, trailing only C.J. Stroud and Malik Willis.
But in this game, Love is going to have to find some answers against a talented Patriots secondary that will make it very hard on them, especially on the outside. That will only get more difficult in the obvious passing situations that will be created by the lack of a running game on early downs. However, on second- and third-and-long, Love ranks in the top 10 in EPA per dropback.
Second-and-long is going to be a key down in this game on this side of the ball. Green Bay has run the most plays on second-and-long in the NFL this season, in large part due to the aforementioned issues on the ground. The Packers have the fourth-highest pass rate on those plays, and the Patriots have been a bit vulnerable on those snaps this season. New England is allowing 7.2 yards per play on second-and-long passing plays, the seventh-highest number in football per Next Gen Stats.
On second-and-long, defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr loves to dial up the blitz. The Patriots' 42.9% blitz rate on those downs is the second-highest rate in the league, trailing only Brian Flores and the Minnesota Vikings (who else?). But Love has more attempts and yards against the blitz than any other quarterback this season, so he will be ready for it.
The last thing that is key in every Packers game is slowing down Green Bay's deep passing game. Love throws the ball 20 or more yards down the field on 14.7% of his throws, the second-highest number in football. While it hasn't been all that fruitful so far in 2026, in part due to some drops, Love has two emerging stars in Christian Watson and Matthew Golden to target on those throws.
The Patriots rank in the middle of the pack against deep passes, both in terms of counting stats and efficiency numbers. That could be an area that the Packers look to exploit on Sunday.
Drake Maye vs. a hot Packers defense
On the other side of the ball, Drake Maye is looking like the guy who nearly won the MVP in his second season in the NFL. After a slow start to the season, Maye is now playing his best football and is leading one of the best passing games in the NFL despite a plethora of injuries to his wide receivers.
Even when you factor in Maye's early-season struggles, where he had one touchdown and six interceptions in his first three games, he still ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in EPA per dropback, passing touchdowns and yards per attempt.
On the other side, Jonathan Gannon has quietly turned this Packers group into a very good pass defense. Green Bay ranks third in the NFL in yards per pass allowed, seventh in EPA per pass allowed, and fifth in pressure rate according to Next Gen Stats. Gannon has started to get a very good feel for his personnel in Green Bay, knowing when to heat opposing quarterbacks up and when to lay back and play coverage. Sending pressure packages worked in games like a win over the Cowboys, when Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense were completely flummoxed all game long in Week 6.
When Green Bay does get pressure on Maye on Sunday, and it very likely will plenty of times against a Patriots offensive line that has been leaky so far this season, it will be interesting to see how effective they can be at slowing him down.
Maye has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL when pressured so far this season. His EPA per dropback on those snaps is the second-best mark in the NFL, trailing only Patrick Mahomes. He is second in the NFL in yards this season when under pressure as well, so he is no stranger to working with defenders around him in the backfield. Look for Maye to come up big in the face of pressure when the Patriots really need a big play on Sunday.