UFC Vegas 124: Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker continues on the prelims with a featherweight fight between Road to UFC winner Keiichiro Nakamura and Ollie Schmid. Check out our UFC Vegas 124 odds series for our Nakamura-Schmid prediction and pick.
Keiichiro Nakamura (8-1) steps into the Octagon after winning the Road to UFC featherweight tournament by finishing Sebastian Szalay with a late knee. The Japanese prospect has won eight straight, with seven finishes, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Ollie Schmid.
Ollie Schmid (4-3) was stopped in the first round by Marwan Rahiki on short notice in May. The City Kickboxing product has fought on smaller regional shows, including HEX and Eternal MMA, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Keiichiro Nakamura.
UFC Vegas 124 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC Vegas 124 Odds: Keiichiro Nakamura-Ollie Schmid Odds
Keiichiro Nakamura: -375
Ollie Schmid: +295
Over 1.5 rounds: -140
Under 1.5 rounds: +110
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Keiichiro Nakamura Will Win
Keiichiro Nakamura enters as a clear favorite because he has the finishing record and the tournament pedigree. His Road to UFC win proves he can handle pressure.
Ollie Schmid looked outclassed against Rahiki, which suggests a step down in UFC-level speed. Nakamura should have the better technique and power.
Nakamura's knee finish against Szalay also showed his resilience, since he rallied while losing. That is a good sign against an opponent who may fade.
He can mix strikes and takedowns to keep Schmid guessing. A fast start would force Schmid into survival mode.
The Japanese prospect should stay patient and not walk into wild counters. Expect Nakamura to win with a stoppage in the second round.
Why Ollie Schmid Will Win
Ollie Schmid's best chance is to use a full camp and force a chaotic fight. His previous UFC appearance came on short notice, so this is a different situation.
He has solid kickboxing fundamentals from City Kickboxing and can throw sharp combinations. If he lands first, he can make Nakamura hesitate.
Nakamura has spent most of his career on smaller stages, so the UFC cage could expose him. Schmid may be more comfortable with the pace.
The New Zealander can also use movement to avoid Nakamura's power. Any early success would build confidence.
Article Continues BelowSchmid needs a clean knockout or a surprising scramble finish. Expect him to win only if he lands a major counter early.
Final Nakamura-Schmid Prediction & Pick
Keiichiro Nakamura is the pick because he has the better finishing record and the stronger credentials. Schmid's lone UFC fight ended quickly, which makes it difficult to trust him at this level.
Nakamura should be patient early and test Schmid's reactions. If Schmid presses forward, the Japanese prospect can counter or take him down.
Schmid does have a full camp this time, so he should be more competitive than in his debut. Even so, the talent gap appears meaningful.
Expect Nakamura to land punishing shots, force Schmid into a defensive shell, and score a stoppage. The fight does not need to go long once Nakamura finds his range.
Final Keiichiro Nakamura-Ollie Schmid Prediction & Pick: Keiichiro Nakamura (-375), UNDER 1.5 rounds (+110)