UFC Vegas 121: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos continues on the prelims with a fight between Montel Jackson and Ricky Simon in the bantamweight division. Check out our UFC Vegas 121 odds series for our Jackson-Simon prediction and pick.
Montel Jackson (15-4, 9-4 UFC) has dropped back-to-back split decisions, most recently to Raoni Barcelos in April 2026 after also falling short against Deiveson Figueiredo in October 2025. That skid snapped a six-fight winning streak that ran from 2021 to 2025 and included a first-round KO of Da'Mon Blackshear. “Quik” now seeks revenge as he comes into his fight this weekend against Ricky Simon, who beat him by decision back in 2018.
Ricky Simon (22-7-1, 10-6-1 UFC) settled for a majority draw against Adrian Yanez in March 2026, a fight that came after a unanimous decision loss to Raoni Barcelos, leaving him just 2-4-1 across his last seven bouts. The veteran remains just five years removed from a first-round KO of Javid Basharat, showing his power is still there when timing aligns. Simon now looks to right the ship as he comes into his fight this weekend against Montel Jackson.
UFC Vegas 121 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 121 Odds: Montel Jackson-Ricky Simon Odds
Montel Jackson: -205
Ricky Simon: +170
Over 2.5 rounds: -210
Under 2.5 rounds: +160
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Montel Jackson Will Win
Montel Jackson brings clearly superior finishing power into this fight, with eight of his 15 career wins coming by knockout compared to Ricky Simon's seven. That kind of consistent stopping power at bantamweight gives Jackson a real path to ending the fight early if he can find his range against a veteran who's shown vulnerability in recent bouts.
Simon's form has been genuinely shaky lately, going just 2-4-1 across his last seven fights, including a majority draw with Adrian Yanez that many felt he was fortunate to escape. That kind of prolonged inconsistency suggests his skills or durability may be eroding at 34, an age where bantamweights often start to decline physically.
Jackson, despite his own recent skid, lost both of those fights by close split decisions to Raoni Barcelos and Deiveson Figueiredo, tough, ranked competition rather than one-sided beatdowns. That's a meaningfully different trajectory than Simon's more scattered results against a mix of styles.
Jackson also gets a measure of revenge motivation here, having lost a decision to Simon back in 2018 early in his career. With better power, a clearer recent level of competition, and personal stakes on the line, look for Jackson to finally settle the score with a finish.
Article Continues BelowWhy Ricky Simon Will Win
Ricky Simon's biggest advantage is his historical blueprint for this exact matchup, having already beaten Montel Jackson by decision back in 2018. Familiarity with an opponent's tendencies over a full fight can be a major edge, especially for a grinding, wrestling-heavy veteran like Simon who thrives on imposing pressure over 15 minutes.
Simon also carries significantly more championship-level volume and experience, with 22 professional wins and a UFC tenure built on constant activity against elite bantamweight competition. That kind of durability and pace should serve him well against Jackson, who has recently struggled in the later rounds of close decisions.
Jackson enters on his own two-fight skid, having dropped split decisions to Raoni Barcelos and Deiveson Figueiredo, showing he can be out-worked by high-volume, pressure-based opponents, exactly Simon's style. If Simon can replicate the grinding approach that's given him success throughout his career, Jackson's recent trend of losing close, competitive fights could continue.
While Simon's own recent results have been mixed, including a majority draw with Adrian Yanez, his sheer volume and wrestling pedigree give him tools to smother Jackson's power. Expect Simon's experience and previous success against Jackson to translate into another hard-fought decision win.
Final Montel Jackson-Ricky Simon Prediction & Pick
This rematch pits Montel Jackson's superior finishing power against Ricky Simon's grinding, wrestling-based volume, the same formula Simon used to beat Jackson by decision back in 2018. Both fighters enter on rough stretches, with Jackson dropping two straight split decisions and Simon going just 2-4-1 over his last seven bouts.
Expect Simon to look for takedowns and clinch pressure early, trying to replicate the blueprint that worked years ago and neutralize Jackson's power before it becomes a factor. If Jackson can keep this standing and land clean shots, his knockout ability gives him a real chance to finally settle the score early.
Given how close Jackson's recent losses have been, look for him to have sharpened his gameplan since their first meeting, using improved footwork to avoid Simon's takedowns.
Jackson gets back into the win column via second-round TKO, finally avenging his 2018 loss and snapping his own skid.
Final Montel Jackson-Ricky Simón Prediction & Pick: Montel Jackson (-205), UNDER 2.5 Rounds (+160)