UFC Vegas 121: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos continues on the main card with The Ultimate Fighter 34 women's strawweight finale between Melissa Amaya and Tina Black. Check out our UFC Vegas 121 odds series for our Amaya-Black prediction and pick.
Tina Black (Valesca Machado, 15-4, 1 NC) enters this TUF 34 Finale on a four-fight winning streak, most recently outpointing Yasmin Castanho by unanimous decision in December 2024 following a similar decision win over Yulia Ostroverkhova that August. Before that stretch, she scored a blistering 49-second KO of Taylor Mauldin to capture A1 Combat gold. The Brazilian veteran now looks to crown herself Tuf champion as he comes into his fight this weekend against Melissa Amaya.
Melissa Amaya (8-0) enters undefeated and riding a five-fight finishing stretch, most recently blitzing Megumi Sugimoto with a first-round TKO in June 2025 for Combate Global. She then dominated The Ultimate Fighter 34, submitting Anna Melisano and TKO'ing Giovanna Canuto to reach the strawweight final. Now looking to complete her perfect run, Amaya comes into her fight this weekend against Tina Black.
UFC Vegas 121 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 121 Odds: Melissa Amaya-Tina Black Odds
Melissa Amaya: +190
Tina Black: -230
Over 2.5 rounds: -298
Under 2.5 rounds: +220
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Melissa Amaya Will Win
Melissa Amaya's biggest advantage is her flawless finishing rate, with five stoppages in eight career wins and zero career losses, showing a level of dominance that Tina Black, with four career defeats, simply hasn't matched. That kind of undefeated momentum often translates into supreme confidence entering the biggest fight of a young career.
Amaya has also shown she can adapt across different styles, submitting Anna Melisano and TKO'ing Giovanna Canuto during her TUF 34 run, proving she can finish fights both standing and on the mat. That versatility gives her multiple paths to victory regardless of how Black tries to approach the fight.
Black, despite her lengthy resume, has needed the judges' scorecards in her most recent wins, relying on decisions over Yasmin Castanho and Yulia Ostroverkhova rather than finishes, which may signal her finishing power has diminished over her long career. Amaya's younger legs and fresher style could exploit that shift toward more cautious, grinding performances.
Given her flawless record, diverse finishing ability, and the fresh, aggressive style she's shown throughout TUF, look for Amaya to press the pace early and add a ninth stoppage to her resume, claiming the TUF 34 title in the process.
Article Continues BelowWhy Tina Black Will Win
Tina Black's biggest advantage is sheer experience, entering this TUF 34 Finale with 19 professional fights compared to Melissa Amaya's eight, giving her a wealth of high-pressure moments Amaya simply hasn't faced. That kind of championship-caliber seasoning at strawweight often becomes decisive when a fight hits deep or unexpected water.
Black has also proven she can win consistently against increasingly tough competition, riding a four-fight winning streak that includes decision wins over durable opponents like Yasmin Castanho and Yulia Ostroverkhova. That variety, mixing decisions with a highlight-reel 49-second knockout, shows she can adapt her approach depending on how a fight unfolds.
Amaya, while undefeated, built her record largely outside the UFC against a lower overall level of competition before TUF, and her five finishes have come against opposition that hasn't tested elite grappling or durability the way Black's resume has. Facing a true veteran on the sport's biggest stage is a different animal entirely.
Given her deeper well of experience, proven finishing ability, and demonstrated durability across a long career, look for Black to weather Amaya's early aggression and take over as the fight progresses, ultimately claiming the TUF 34 title by decision or late finish.
Final Melissa Amaya-Tina Black Prediction & Pick
This TUF 34 Finale pits Tina Black's veteran experience against Melissa Amaya's flawless, finish-heavy undefeated run. Black brings a deeper well of championship-rounds seasoning, while Amaya enters with five stoppages in eight wins and momentum from her dominant tournament performances.
Expect Amaya to push the pace early, looking to replicate the aggressive finishing instincts she's shown throughout TUF against Melisano and Canuto. If Black can weather that early storm and drag the fight into the later rounds, her experience navigating adversity should start to show.
Black's recent wins have leaned more on decisions than finishes, suggesting she may be more comfortable grinding out a technical fight than trading in dangerous exchanges early. That patient approach could be exactly what's needed to survive Amaya's opening flurries.
Tina Black wins by decision, using craft and composure to outlast Amaya's early aggression and claim the TUF 34 crown.
Final Melissa Amaya-Tina Black Prediction & Pick: Tina Black (-230), OVER 2.5 Rounds (-298)